MediciNova, Inc. (MNOV) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

MediciNova, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing novel and small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of serious diseases with unmet medical needs in the United States.The company is developing MN-166 (ibudilast), an oral anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective agent for treating neurological disorders, such as primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, chemotherapy-induced peripheral neuropathy, degenerative cervical myelopathy, glioblastoma, and substance dependence and addiction.Its product pipeline also includes MN-221 (bedoradrine), a selective beta-2-adrenergic receptor agonist for the treatment of acute exacerbations of asthma; MN-001 (tipelukast), an orally bioavailable small molecule compound to treat fibrotic diseases, including nonalcoholic steatohepatitis and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; and MN-029 (denibulin), a tubulin binding agent for treating solid tumor cancers.

The company has collaboration agreements with Kissei Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.; Kyorin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd; Angiogene Pharmaceuticals Ltd.; and Meiji Seika Kaisha Ltd.MediciNova, Inc.was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in La Jolla, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on MNOV

MediciNova's recent performance was hindered by the slow pace of enrollment in its clinical trials. The MN-166 COMBAT ALS trial, a pivotal study, has dwindled to single-digit required enrollment, raising concerns about its timely completion. Similarly, the MN-001 hypertriglyceridemia trial, targeting type 2 diabetes patients, is only two patients shy of its final enrollment milestone. These developments may cast a shadow on the company's near-term prospects, as the trials' outcomes are crucial for its pipeline's advancement.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	1.56
Change Percentage	0.65%
Open	1.56
Previous Close	1.55
Market Cap ( Millions)	77
Volume	98602
Year High	2.37
Year Low	1.13
M A 50	1.35
M A 200	1.38

FCF Yield	-7964.79%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-23.12%
Debt / Equity	0.64%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	255.67%
Price To Book	1.63
Price Earnings Ratio	-6.48
Price To FCF	-0.01
Price To sales	568.45
EV / EBITDA	-3.2

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

MediciNova Appoints Dr. Christopher Breder, MD, PhD as Clinical and Regulatory Advisor

Nov -18

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova Wins Contract Research and Development Innovation Award at 2025 BioTech Breakthrough Awards

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova Compounds Demonstrate Novel Therapeutic Approach for Atherosclerosis in Peer-Reviewed Publication

Oct -30

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova to Present at the LD Micro Main Event XIX Investor Conference

Oct -06

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova Provides Shareholder Update on Key Developments

Sep -08

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova to Present at the H.C. Wainwright 27th Annual Global Investment Conference

Sep -03

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova Achieves Enrollment in COMBAT-ALS Clinical Trial

Aug -26

Source: globenewswire.com

MediciNova Announces Signing of a Standby Equity Purchase Agreement for up to $30 Million

Jul -31

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.97%)

6. Segments

Small Molecule Therapeutics

Expected Growth: 8.97%

MediciNova's Small Molecule Therapeutics segment growth of 8.97% is driven by increasing demand for novel treatments in areas such as fibrotic diseases, inflammatory disorders, and oncology. Strong pipeline candidates, strategic partnerships, and expanding research collaborations contribute to this growth. Additionally, advancements in proprietary chemistry and biology platforms enable the development of innovative small molecules, further fueling segment expansion.

7. Detailed Products

MN-166 (ibudilast)

A novel, orally bioavailable, small molecule macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) inhibitor for the treatment of various diseases, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), fibromyalgia, and opioid withdrawal.

MN-221 (bedoradrine)

A novel, orally bioavailable, small molecule adenosine A2A receptor antagonist for the treatment of various diseases, including acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and solid tumors.

MN-029 (diphenhydramine)

A novel, orally bioavailable, small molecule antagonist of the histamine H1 receptor for the treatment of various diseases, including pruritus (itching) in atopic dermatitis and chronic kidney disease.

8. MediciNova, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

MediciNova, Inc. operates in the biotechnology industry, which is characterized by a moderate threat of substitutes. The company's products are focused on treating specific diseases, and there are limited substitutes available in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

MediciNova, Inc.'s customers are primarily pharmaceutical companies and research institutions, which have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

MediciNova, Inc. relies on a limited number of suppliers for raw materials and services, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's specialized products and research focus reduce the suppliers' bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The biotechnology industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market with innovative products and technologies. MediciNova, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants, which can impact its market share and revenue.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The biotechnology industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. MediciNova, Inc. operates in a highly competitive environment, which can impact its pricing power and market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	0.99%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	99.01%
Equity Cost	7.44%
WACC	7.41%
Leverage	1.00%

11. Quality Control: MediciNova, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Dominari Holdings

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

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Lineage Cell Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Vanda Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.0

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Seres Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Inhibrx

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

MediciNova

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

17.50%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.41%

MediciNova, Inc. - US58468P2065

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MNOV

1.c. Company Highlights

Stable Momentum

Medium Volatility

Average Yield

Earnings Miss

Fairly Valued

Weak Momentum

Earnings Beats

Average Growth

Average Quality

Cheaper

Strong Momentum

Lower Quality

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.97%)

6. Segments

Small Molecule Therapeutics

Expected Growth: 8.97%

7. Detailed Products

MN-166 (ibudilast)

MN-221 (bedoradrine)

MN-029 (diphenhydramine)

8. MediciNova, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: MediciNova, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.56$

Current Price

1.56$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA