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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc.provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces.It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other.


As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states.The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on MOH

Molina Healthcare's recent performance was positively driven by its Q1 2026 earnings beat, with adjusted EPS of $2.35 surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.57. The company's exit from Medicare Advantage removed $1B in unprofitable revenue, improving business quality. Additionally, Molina reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, targeting $42B in premium revenue and at least $5.00 adjusted EPS. Lower medical costs also supported the company's Q1 performance, despite a decline in membership and premiums. (Source: Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Molina Healthcare Q1 2026: Strong Performance, Solid Guidance

In the first quarter of 2026, Molina Healthcare delivered robust results, posting $10.2 billion in premium revenue and an adjusted EPS of $2.35—well ahead of the $1.57 consensus. The company’s consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) tightened to 91.1%, underscoring disciplined cost control. With Medicaid MCR at 92% and a 5% medical cost trend assumption, the insurer is comfortably above industry averages. The firm’s valuation sits at a P/E of 47.73 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.64, reflecting the market’s premium for its stable cash flows and disciplined underwriting.

Publication Date: Apr -26

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Q1 2026 Performance:: Adjusted EPS of $2.35 on $10.2B premium revenue, with consolidated MCR at 91.1%.
  • Medicaid Efficiency:: Medicaid MCR of 92% and 5% medical cost trend, supporting full-year guidance of $42B revenue and $5+ EPS.
  • Capital Strength:: Parent cash balance of $213M, $1.1B operating cash flow, and $200M in cash expected to grow to $600M by year-end.
  • Embedded Earnings Growth:: $2.50/share potential from 2026 MAPD losses and Florida CMS implementation costs.
  • Debt Management:: Debt-to-capital ratio at 47-48% (vs. target of low 40s), with RBC ratio at 305% and G&A ratio at 6.4%.

Q1 Financial Highlights

Revenue of $10.2 billion matched the company’s guidance, while adjusted earnings of $2.35 per share surpassed estimates, driven by a 5% decline in medical cost trend and a 4% Medicaid rate increase. The firm’s operating cash flow of $1.1 billion and a cash balance of $213 million reinforce its liquidity position, providing a cushion for dividend payments and strategic investments.

Operating Efficiency

Molina’s G&A ratio is expected to hold near 6.4% for the year, a modest improvement over the 6.9% Q1 rise, largely due to timing effects. The company’s MCR of 91.1% signals that underwriting profitability remains robust, and the combined ratio is projected to stay below 100%, a key metric for insurance profitability.

Membership Dynamics

The insurer anticipates a 6% decline in same‑store Medicaid membership, down to 4.5 million members, while marketplace enrollment is projected to fall to 250,000 by year‑end. Despite this contraction, the company’s embedded earnings—$2.50 per share from MAPD losses and Florida CMS first‑year costs—offer a promising upside for future earnings.

Capital Position & Debt

Debt stands at 6.1x trailing 12‑month EBITDA, with a debt‑to‑capital ratio near 48%, slightly above the low‑40s target but manageable given the firm’s strong cash flow generation. The company maintains a 44‑day days‑cash‑on‑hand, a marginal dip attributed to timing but still within acceptable limits.

Embedded Earnings & Future Growth

Molina’s embedded earnings metric, encompassing incremental contract wins and acquisitions, is expected to drive value beyond core operations. The Florida Kids program, a new contract, is positioned as a significant earnings catalyst, with transparent economics and strong growth prospects.

Segment Performance

Medicare experienced a drag from the MAPD product slated for exit next year, while duals—D‑SNP, HIDE, and FIDE—performed strongly. The marketplace mix is shifting toward bronze and gold tiers, reflecting benefit design changes and state‑specific factors.

M&A & Strategic Moves

The company’s M&A pipeline remains active, yet management stresses disciplined execution. A strategic partner for MAPD transfer is sought, with a fallback plan to exit the traditional MAPD product by 2027 if a transfer is not secured.

Guidance Outlook

3. NewsRoom

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Centene Q1 Earnings Beat Estimates on Rising Premiums, 2026 View Up

Apr -28

Source: zacks.com

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UHS' Q1 Earnings Beat on Strong Behavioral Health Care Admissions

Apr -28

Source: zacks.com

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Molina: Q1 Beat Proves The Cost Story, Now Comes Hard Decision For The Management

Apr -24

Source: seekingalpha.com

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MOH Q1 EPS Tops Estimates on Lower Medical Costs, Membership Declines

Apr -23

Source: zacks.com

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Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Apr -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Molina Healthcare of Iowa and The MolinaCares Accord Donate $100,000 to Support Senior Nutrition Food Program

Apr -23

Source: businesswire.com

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Molina (MOH) Q1 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Apr -23

Source: zacks.com

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Molina (MOH) Q1 Earnings Surpass Estimates

Apr -22

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.79%)

6. Segments

Medicaid

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Molina Healthcare's Medicaid segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increasing Medicaid enrollment, expansion into new states, and a growing presence in existing markets. Additionally, the company's focus on providing cost-effective healthcare services and its ability to navigate regulatory changes have contributed to its growth.

Medicare

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Molina Healthcare's Medicare segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans, expansion into new markets, and improved health outcomes through value-based care models. Additionally, the company's focus on serving low-income and vulnerable populations, as well as its investments in digital health technologies, contribute to its growth momentum.

Marketplace

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Molina Healthcare's Marketplace segment growth of 4.2% is driven by increasing enrollment in Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on providing cost-effective healthcare solutions and improving operational efficiencies have contributed to its growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Molina Healthcare's 3.2% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for Medicaid and Medicare services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost containment and operational efficiencies has contributed to improved profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Medicaid Health Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Medicaid health plans that provide comprehensive healthcare services to low-income individuals and families.

Medicare Health Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Medicare health plans that provide healthcare services to seniors and individuals with disabilities.

Marketplace Health Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Marketplace health plans that provide affordable healthcare coverage to individuals and families.

Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans that provide comprehensive healthcare services to individuals who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.

Long-Term Services and Supports

Molina Healthcare offers Long-Term Services and Supports that provide assistance with daily living activities to individuals with disabilities or chronic conditions.

8. Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Molina Healthcare, Inc. operates in a highly regulated industry, which limits the threat of substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of telemedicine and digital health platforms poses a moderate threat to the company's services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Molina Healthcare, Inc. serves a diverse customer base, including government-sponsored programs, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's scale and market presence limit the negotiating power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Molina Healthcare, Inc. relies on a network of healthcare providers, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and market presence mitigate this power to some extent.

Threat Of New Entrants

The healthcare industry is heavily regulated, and new entrants face significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and complex regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants to Molina Healthcare, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The healthcare industry is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share. Molina Healthcare, Inc. faces intense competition from established players, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 36.33%
Debt Cost 6.13%
Equity Weight 63.67%
Equity Cost 6.66%
WACC 6.47%
Leverage 57.06%

11. Quality Control: Molina Healthcare, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Neurocrine Biosciences

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Growth: 9.3

Quality: 8.5

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Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

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United Therapeutics

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Value: 3.9

Growth: 8.6

Quality: 7.9

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Value: 8.9

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Quality: 3.2

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Quality: 6.8

Yield: 3.0

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Molina Healthcare

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Value: 8.2

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

192.7$

Current Price

192.7$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows