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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Molina Healthcare, Inc.provides managed health care services to low-income families and individuals under the Medicaid and Medicare programs and through the state insurance marketplaces.It operates in four segments, Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace, and Other.


As of December 31, 2021, the company served the company served approximately 5.2 million members eligible for Medicaid, Medicare, and other government-sponsored healthcare programs in 18 states.The company was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Long Beach, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on MOH

Breaking News: Molina Healthcare Inc reported no recent earnings release. However an investigation by Grabar Law Office on behalf of shareholders was announced on February 17 2026. No details were given on the claims. This notice is for long term shareholders. Analysts at various firms have given Molina Healthcare Inc a hold rating. For instance some analysts at a certain firm have recommended investors to hold their current positions. Other firms have also given similar recommendations. Several brokerage firms are currently covering the stock.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Molina Healthcare's 2025 Earnings: A Challenging Year with Strategic Wins

Molina Healthcare reported an adjusted loss per share of $2.75 on $10.7 billion of premium revenue for the fourth quarter 2025. The company's full-year 2025 premium revenue was $43.1 billion, representing 11% year-over-year growth, and adjusted earnings per share were $11.03, with a pretax margin of 1.6%. The actual EPS came out at -$2.75, significantly missing estimates of $0.43. The company's financial performance was impacted by strong trend pressure in Medicare and Marketplace, and retroactive items in Medicaid, which totaled $2 per share.

Publication Date: Feb -08

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 2025 Adjusted Loss:: $2.75/share on $10.7B premium revenue, driven by $2/share in trend pressure and retroactive Medicaid items.
  • Florida RFP Win:: Secured $6B/year Children’s Medical Services contract, boosting long-term growth with 2026 implementation.
  • 2026 Guidance:: $42B premium revenue forecast with $5+ adjusted EPS, projecting 1.2% Medicaid pretax margin and 94% Medicare MCR.
  • Medicaid Margin Pressure:: 15-20% attrition risk in expansion population and 5% medical trend assumption, with potential 1.7% negative margin in 2026.
  • Embedded Earnings Power:: $11/share in new store embedded earnings at year-end 2025, with $0.60 harvestable for Medicare tools implementation.

Operational Highlights and Strategic Wins

The company secured a historic RFP win in Florida, where the state awarded Molina the sole Children's Medical Services contract, expected to yield $6 billion in annual run rate premium and go live late 2026. This win is a significant strategic achievement, demonstrating Molina's capabilities and competitiveness in the market. The company has achieved an RFP win rate of 90% on renewal contracts and 80% on new contracts since embarking on its growth strategy.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Molina projects premium revenue of approximately $42 billion and adjusted earnings per share guidance of at least $5. The guidance assumes a low single-digit margin in Medicaid, and the company expects that rates and trend will eventually reach equilibrium. The company has an active pipeline of $50 billion of new opportunities over the next few years and an acquisition pipeline with a number of actionable opportunities.

Valuation and Metrics

Molina's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 14.18, P/B Ratio of 1.64, and P/S Ratio of 0.15. The company's ROE is 10.99%, and ROIC is 7.64%. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of -0.31, Molina's capital foundation remains strong. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 8.5%, which may be achievable given the company's strategic wins and operational improvements.

Margin Improvement and Growth Prospects

The company expects margin improvements in legacy products in the new rate cycle but notes that MMP members transitioning to new integrated products will have lower margins. A 100 basis points improvement in Medicaid's MCR translates to $5 a share. If the platform improves by 50-100 basis points annually for 2-3 years, combined with a $32 billion revenue base, Molina could see significant margin improvement, returning to target margins from a trough, which they believe is in 2026, with a 1.6% pretax margin.

3. NewsRoom

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Important Notice to Long-Term Shareholders of Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH): Grabar Law Office Investigates Claims on Your Behalf

Feb -17

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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Seth Klarman's Strategic Moves: Amazon.com Inc. Takes Center Stage with 9.28% Portfolio Share

Feb -13

Source: gurufocus.com

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Important Notice to Long-Term Shareholders of Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH): Grabar Law Office Investigates Claims on Your Behalf

Feb -09

Source: newsfilecorp.com

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Molina Healthcare: Still Not Buying This Sick Puppy

Feb -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Molina Healthcare Incurs a Loss in Q4 as Medical Costs Surge

Feb -06

Source: zacks.com

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S&P 500 Health Insurer Dives As ACA Enrollment Implodes

Feb -06

Source: investors.com

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Stock Market Today: Futures Point Higher After Indexes Dive; Nasdaq, S&P 500 Poised for Weekly Losses; Bitcoin Sinks Near $60,000 Before Rebounding

Feb -06

Source: investopedia.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.79%)

6. Segments

Medicaid

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Molina Healthcare's Medicaid segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increasing Medicaid enrollment, expansion into new states, and a growing presence in existing markets. Additionally, the company's focus on providing cost-effective healthcare services and its ability to navigate regulatory changes have contributed to its growth.

Medicare

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Molina Healthcare's Medicare segment growth of 3.5% is driven by increasing enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans, expansion into new markets, and improved health outcomes through value-based care models. Additionally, the company's focus on serving low-income and vulnerable populations, as well as its investments in digital health technologies, contribute to its growth momentum.

Marketplace

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Molina Healthcare's Marketplace segment growth of 4.2% is driven by increasing enrollment in Affordable Care Act (ACA) plans, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on providing cost-effective healthcare solutions and improving operational efficiencies have contributed to its growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Molina Healthcare's 3.2% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for Medicaid and Medicare services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost containment and operational efficiencies has contributed to improved profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Medicaid Health Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Medicaid health plans that provide comprehensive healthcare services to low-income individuals and families.

Medicare Health Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Medicare health plans that provide healthcare services to seniors and individuals with disabilities.

Marketplace Health Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Marketplace health plans that provide affordable healthcare coverage to individuals and families.

Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans

Molina Healthcare offers Dual Eligible Special Needs Plans that provide comprehensive healthcare services to individuals who are eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare.

Long-Term Services and Supports

Molina Healthcare offers Long-Term Services and Supports that provide assistance with daily living activities to individuals with disabilities or chronic conditions.

8. Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Molina Healthcare, Inc. operates in a highly regulated industry, which limits the threat of substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of telemedicine and digital health platforms poses a moderate threat to the company's services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Molina Healthcare, Inc. serves a diverse customer base, including government-sponsored programs, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's scale and market presence limit the negotiating power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Molina Healthcare, Inc. relies on a network of healthcare providers, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's scale and market presence mitigate this power to some extent.

Threat Of New Entrants

The healthcare industry is heavily regulated, and new entrants face significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and complex regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants to Molina Healthcare, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The healthcare industry is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share. Molina Healthcare, Inc. faces intense competition from established players, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 36.33%
Debt Cost 6.13%
Equity Weight 63.67%
Equity Cost 6.66%
WACC 6.47%
Leverage 57.06%

11. Quality Control: Molina Healthcare, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Neurocrine Biosciences

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 9.3

Quality: 8.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

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United Therapeutics

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 8.6

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Viatris

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 7.0

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Elevance Health

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.3

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Molina Healthcare

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Oscar Health

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 8.1

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

151.0$

Current Price

151$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows