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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Molson Coors Beverage Company manufactures, markets, and sells beer and other malt beverage products under various brands in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and Asia Pacific.It offers flavored malt beverages, craft, and ready to drink beverages.The company was formerly known as Molson Coors Brewing Company and changed its name to Molson Coors Beverage Company in January 2020.


Molson Coors Beverage Company was founded in 1774 and is based in Golden, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on TAP

Molson Coors Beverage Company's recent performance was negatively impacted by its Q3 earnings and sales miss, as well as a softer 2025 outlook. The company's earnings of $1.67 per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.72 per share. Institutional investors have been adjusting their positions, with Skylands Capital adding 70,440 shares, while Asset Management One Co. Ltd. and Arkadios Wealth Advisors reduced their holdings. Additionally, Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Group Inc. increased its stake by 7.6%. The company's Q3 earnings call highlighted key metrics, but did not alleviate concerns.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Molson Coors' Q3 FY2025: A Challenging Quarter with a Path Forward

Molson Coors reported a challenging third quarter in FY2025, with consolidated net sales revenue down 3.3% and underlying pretax income down 11.3%. The company's underlying earnings per share (EPS) was down 7.2% to an actual value of -14.79333, significantly missing estimates of 1.72. The U.S. beer industry was down 4.7% based on the company's internal estimates, and Molson Coors' U.S. volume share was down 40 basis points. The company's financial performance was impacted by macro-related factors, including economic impacts and tariffs, which have pressured consumption behavior.

Publication Date: Nov -05

📋 Highlights
  • Leadership Transition: Rahul Goyal assumes CEO role, succeeding Gavin Hattersley, with a strategic focus on scalable brand growth and capital deployment.
  • Q3 Financial Declines: Net sales revenue fell 3.3%, underlying pretax income dropped 11.9%, and earnings per share declined 7.2% amid U.S. beer industry contraction (-4.7%).
  • 2025 Guidance Adjusted: Reaffirmed but now expects low-end performance (sales decline 3-4%, pretax income -12%-15%, EPS -7%-10%) due to macroeconomic headwinds.
  • $3.6B Impairment Charge: Driven by portfolio underperformance, discount rates, and risk premiums, signaling restructuring to realign with growth priorities.
  • Restructuring Plan: $35M–$50M in Q4 charges for severance and operational streamlining, with savings redirected to brand investments and supply chain optimization.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was largely as expected, with the key quarterly drivers being the challenges in the U.S. beer market. Molson Coors' net sales revenue decline of 3.3% was in line with the company's guidance, which expects net sales revenue to decline 3% to 4% on a constant currency basis for FY2025. The company's underlying pretax income decline of 11.9% was also within the guided range of 12% to 15%.

Operational Highlights

Operationally, Molson Coors is taking steps to address the challenges in the market. The company is focusing on its portfolio to build strong and scalable brands in both beer and beyond beer. The company's beyond beer strategy has been successful with Fever-Tree, but it recognizes challenges in some parts of its portfolio. As CEO Rahul Goyal noted, "We will be creative and deploy capital to fill gaps in the beyond beer space."

Guidance and Outlook

Molson Coors is reaffirming its FY2025 guidance but now expects to come in at the low end of the prior range for its key metrics. The company's guidance implies a better top-line performance in EMEA, APAC, and Canada, driven by softer comps from contract brewing in the U.S. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.4%, indicating a challenging near term.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of -4.13, P/B Ratio of 0.84, and an EV/EBITDA of -8.44, Molson Coors' valuation metrics indicate that the market is pricing in significant challenges. The company's dividend yield of 4.24% and free cash flow yield of 12.27% may be attractive to income investors. However, the company's ROE of -16.74% and ROIC of -15.03% indicate that it is struggling to generate returns on its investments.

3. NewsRoom

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Molson Coors (TAP) Up 2.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

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Cetera Investment Advisers Lowers Stock Holdings in Molson Coors Beverage Company $TAP

Dec -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) Presents at Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference 2025 Transcript

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

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17 dividend-stock bargains from a value manager with a stellar track record

Dec -02

Source: marketwatch.com

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Molson Coors: Market Overreaction Creates A Compelling High-Yield Value Opportunity

Nov -21

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Molson Coors Beverage Company Announces Regular Quarterly Dividend

Nov -20

Source: businesswire.com

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Here Are Wednesday's Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: DoorDash, Freeport-McMoRan, GitLab, Home Depot, Medtronic, Molson-Coors, and More

Nov -19

Source: 247wallst.com

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Beer Business Softness Deepens: Can Molson Coors Reignite Core Brands?

Nov -18

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.78%)

6. Segments

Beer and Other Malt Beverages

Expected Growth: 4.78%

Molson Coors Beverage Company's 4.78% growth in Beer and Other Malt Beverages is driven by increasing demand for premium and craft beers, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, marketing, and cost savings initiatives have contributed to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Coors Light

A cold-activated, refreshing lager beer that is crisp, clean, and easy to drink.

Coors Original

A classic, full-bodied lager beer with a rich, smooth flavor and a hint of sweetness.

Molson Canadian

A premium, cold-filtered lager beer with a smooth, refreshing taste and a hint of sweetness.

Blue Moon

A Belgian-style witbier with a refreshing, fruity flavor and a hint of spice.

Miller Lite

A light, crisp lager beer with a smooth, refreshing taste and fewer calories.

Miller High Life

A classic, full-bodied lager beer with a rich, smooth flavor and a hint of sweetness.

Staropramen

A premium, Czech-style lager beer with a rich, full-bodied flavor and a hint of bitterness.

Carling

A classic, easy-drinking lager beer with a smooth, refreshing taste and a hint of sweetness.

8. Molson Coors Beverage Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Molson Coors Beverage Company faces moderate threat from substitutes, as consumers have various alternatives to beer, such as wine, spirits, and non-alcoholic beverages. However, the company's diverse portfolio of brands and products helps mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Molson Coors Beverage Company has a large and diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's strong brand portfolio and distribution network help maintain customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Molson Coors Beverage Company relies on suppliers for raw materials, such as hops, barley, and packaging materials. While the company has some bargaining power due to its scale, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and supply chain terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The beer industry has significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and established distribution networks. These barriers make it challenging for new entrants to compete with established players like Molson Coors Beverage Company.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The beer industry is highly competitive, with many established players vying for market share. Molson Coors Beverage Company faces intense rivalry from other major brewers, as well as craft brewers and imports, which can lead to pricing pressure and marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 32.21%
Debt Cost 4.89%
Equity Weight 67.79%
Equity Cost 8.31%
WACC 7.21%
Leverage 47.52%

11. Quality Control: Molson Coors Beverage Company passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Growth: 9.4

Quality: 8.1

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A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

45.13$

Current Price

45.13$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows