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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

NMI Holdings, Inc.provides private mortgage guaranty insurance services in the United States.The company offers mortgage insurance services; and outsourced loan review services to mortgage loan originators.


It serves national and regional mortgage banks, money center banks, credit unions, community banks, builder-owned mortgage lenders, internet-sourced lenders, and other non-bank lenders.NMI Holdings, Inc.was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on NMIH

NMI Holdings' recent performance faces challenges from rising claims and debt, testing its resilience. Despite strong housing fundamentals and disciplined growth, the company's increasing claims and competition pose concerns. Its Q2 2025 earnings report showed a slight decline in net income to $96.2 million, or $1.21 per diluted share, from $102.6 million, or $1.28 per diluted share, in Q1 2025. Adjusted net income was $96.5 million, or $1.22 per diluted share. The company's ability to navigate these challenges will be crucial moving forward.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. National MI Holdings Delivers Standout Q3 2025 Performance

National MI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) reported impressive financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with record total revenue of $178.7 million, GAAP net income of $96 million, or $1.22 per diluted share, and a return on equity of 15.6%. The company's new insurance-written volume (NIW) was $13 billion, bringing the total primary insurance-in-force to a record $218.4 billion. The expense ratio improved to 19.3%, a record low, highlighting the company's operating leverage and efficient cost management. The actual EPS of $1.21 was in line with estimates.

Publication Date: Nov -10

📋 Highlights
  • Record Revenue and Earnings:: Total revenue reached $178.7 million, with GAAP net income of $96 million ($1.22 per diluted share) and a 15.6% return on equity.
  • Insurance-In-Force Growth:: Generated $13 billion in new insurance-written (NIW) volume, ending the quarter with a record $218.4 billion in high-quality primary insurance-in-force.
  • Book Value Increase:: Book value per share rose 4% quarter-over-quarter to $33.32, up 16% compared to the third quarter of 2024.
  • Efficient Operations:: Achieved a record low expense ratio of 19.3%, with $256 million in remaining share repurchase capacity and $1.4 billion in excess available assets.
  • Competitive Position and Credit Stability:: Maintained a 1.05% default rate, robust reinsurance coverage for 2025-2027, and management confidence in market barriers to new entrants.

Financial Highlights

The company's financial performance was driven by net premiums earned of $151.3 million and investment income of $26.8 million. The underwriting and operating expenses were $29.2 million, resulting in an expense ratio of 19.3%. The book value per share was $32.62, and book value per share excluding the impact of net unrealized gains and losses in the investment portfolio was $33.32, up 4% compared to the second quarter and 16% compared to the third quarter of 2024.

Share Repurchase and Capital Management

NMIH repurchased $24.6 million of common stock, retiring 628,000 shares at an average price of $39.13. The company has $256 million of repurchase capacity remaining under its existing program. Its PMIERs available assets were $3.4 billion, with excess available assets of $1.4 billion, indicating a strong capital position.

Credit Performance and Outlook

The default rate was 1.05% at quarter end, and the company expects some seasonal increase in defaults in Q4. The management team remains optimistic about NMIH's prospects, citing a strong customer franchise, a talented team, and an exceptionally high-quality book covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions.

Valuation and Ratios

With a Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of 1.13, the stock appears to be reasonably valued. The Return on Equity (ROE) of 16.08% is a positive indicator of the company's profitability. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.9%, which is a moderate growth rate. Considering the company's strong financial performance and reasonable valuation, it is well-positioned to serve customers, drive growth, and deliver returns and value for shareholders.

3. NewsRoom

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NMI Holdings Inc $NMIH Shares Sold by Aviva PLC

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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NMI Holdings: Solid Q3, But Home Price Exposure Limits Upside

Nov -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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NMI Holdings Q3 Earnings Meet Estimates, Revenues & Premiums Rise Y/Y

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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NMI Holdings (NMIH) Q3 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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NMI Holdings, Inc. (NMIH) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

Source: seekingalpha.com

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NMI Holdings (NMIH) Meets Q3 Earnings Estimates

Nov -04

Source: zacks.com

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NMI Holdings, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nov -04

Source: globenewswire.com

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NMI Holdings Inc $NMIH Shares Sold by Allspring Global Investments Holdings LLC

Oct -24

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.00%)

6. Segments

Insurance and Related Activities

Expected Growth: 7.0%

NMI Holdings, Inc.'s 7.0% growth in Insurance and Related Activities is driven by increasing demand for mortgage insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on risk-based pricing, improved underwriting, and investments in digital platforms have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

National MI

National MI is a private mortgage insurance (PMI) product that provides mortgage insurance to borrowers, allowing them to purchase or refinance a home with a lower down payment.

Covenant

Covenant is a risk-based pricing product that offers more competitive pricing for borrowers with stronger credit profiles.

RateGPS

RateGPS is a rate quoting and ordering platform that provides lenders with a streamlined way to quote and order mortgage insurance.

Insurer Insights

Insurer Insights is a data analytics platform that provides lenders with actionable insights to help them better understand their mortgage insurance business.

8. NMI Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for NMI Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of alternative mortgage insurance providers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for NMI Holdings, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives for mortgage insurance.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for NMI Holdings, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of reinsurance and other services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for NMI Holdings, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mortgage insurance industry, including regulatory hurdles and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for NMI Holdings, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the mortgage insurance industry, with multiple players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 17.11%
Debt Cost 9.23%
Equity Weight 82.89%
Equity Cost 9.23%
WACC 9.23%
Leverage 20.64%

11. Quality Control: NMI Holdings, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 9.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

37.57$

Current Price

37.57$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows