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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide.It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle.The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father.


In addition, it offers Constellation, a cloud-based software product that enables laboratory customers to gain access through the cloud to the company's algorithms and bioinformatics in order to validate and launch tests; Signatera, a circulating tumor DNA technology that screen for a generic set of mutations independent of an individual's tumor; and Prospera used to assess organ transplant rejection.The company offers products through its direct sales force, as well as through a network of approximately 100 laboratory and distribution partners.It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd.


to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays; and Foundation Medicine, Inc.to develop and commercialize personalized circulating tumor DNA monitoring assays.The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, Inc.


and changed its name to Natera, Inc.in 2012.Natera, Inc.


was founded in 2003 and is based in Austin, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on NTRA

Natera's recent performance has been positively driven by increased institutional investor confidence. Creative Planning grew its holdings by 29.2%, while Edgestream Partners L.P. and Coldstream Capital Management Inc. increased their stakes by 154% and 17.6%, respectively. The company's strong Q3 financial results, with 34.7% revenue growth to $592.2 million, and a gross margin percentage of 64.9%, have likely contributed to this increased interest. Additionally, Natera's presentation at several healthcare conferences and its upcoming presentation of 12 datasets at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium may further boost investor confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Natera's Q3 Earnings: Strong Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

Natera reported a robust Q3 2025 with revenue reaching $592 million, a 35% year-over-year increase. The company's gross margin expanded to 64.9%, a 1.5 percentage point improvement from the previous quarter. However, the actual EPS came out at -$0.64, missing estimates of -$0.39. The company's Signatera MRD test processed 202,000 clinical tests, a record growth. The revenue growth was driven by the strong adoption of Signatera, with over 21,000 growth units, representing 56% year-on-year growth.

Publication Date: Nov -10

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Surge:: Q3 2025 revenue hit $592M, up 35% YoY, with 202,000 clinical MRD tests processed (21,500+ units growth QoQ).
  • Gross Margin Expansion:: Q3 gross margin rose to 64.9% (1.5pp QoQ) and updated 2025 guidance to 62-64%, with long-term 70% potential.
  • Signatera Growth:: Key product achieved 56% YoY growth (21,000+ units Q3), with ASPs at $1,200 and 41% survival improvement in bladder cancer.
  • Financial Guidance Raised:: 2025 revenue guidance lifted to $2.18B–$2.26B (midpoint +$160M), plus $100M free cash flow target.
  • Early Detection Momentum:: $50M incremental 2026 investment in CRC detection, with 22.5% sensitivity and 91.5% specificity in advanced adenoma studies.

Signatera's Continued Success

Signatera posted another record quarter with over 21,000 growth units, driven by new customer starts and existing accounts expanding their usage. The test's ASPs reached roughly $1,200. The company is optimistic about its market position, with a strong trend in new patient starts continuing into Q4. The growth in Q3 was broad across tumor types, with significant interest in bladder cancer following the IMvigor announcement.

Early Cancer Detection Program

Natera's early cancer detection program showed promising results, with the PROCEED-CRC study reporting 22.5% sensitivity and 91.5% specificity for detecting advanced adenomas. The company plans to launch the FIND-CRC study, a FDA-grade validation study targeting 25,000 average-risk adults, to generate regulatory-grade evidence. Natera plans to invest around $50 million incrementally in its early cancer detection program in 2026.

Financial Guidance and Valuation

The company raised its 2025 financial guidance, expecting revenues between $2.18 billion and $2.26 billion, a $160 million increase at the midpoint. The gross margin guide was raised to 62-64%, and free cash flow generation is expected to reach $100 million. With a P/S Ratio of 12.94 and an EV/EBITDA of -91.52, the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 16.2%. The company's ROE is -25.07%, and the ROIC is -24.02%, indicating significant investments in R&D and clinical trials.

Investment Outlook

Natera is confident in its women's health business, with a strong commercial position and a new product, Fetal Focus, which can help capture share in the market. The company expects limited OpEx growth of roughly 10% in 2026, while revenues are expected to grow much faster, and margins continue to improve. The investments will focus on executing definitive Signatera clinical trials and completing the FDA-enabling FIND study.

3. NewsRoom

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Edgestream Partners L.P. Grows Stock Position in Natera, Inc. $NTRA

Dec -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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New Signatera™ Data in Lymphoma and Multiple Myeloma to be Presented at the 2025 American Society of Hematology Annual Meeting

Dec -03

Source: businesswire.com

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Natera to Present 12 Datasets Including >50,000 Patients Featuring Signatera™ at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium

Dec -02

Source: businesswire.com

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30% of Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller's Portfolio Is Invested in These 3 Biotech Stocks

Nov -30

Source: fool.com

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Coldstream Capital Management Inc. Acquires 427 Shares of Natera, Inc. $NTRA

Nov -28

Source: defenseworld.net

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Creative Planning Grows Stock Holdings in Natera, Inc. $NTRA

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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This Investor Beat the Market for 3 Decades Without a Single Losing Year. 3 Stocks He's Buying Now.

Nov -24

Source: 247wallst.com

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Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Presents at 7th Annual Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference Transcript

Nov -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (12.05%)

6. Segments

Molecular Testing

Expected Growth: 12%

Natera's molecular testing growth is driven by increasing adoption of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) and genetic testing, expanding reproductive health offerings, and growing demand for cancer and organ health testing. Additionally, strategic partnerships, investments in R&D, and increasing reimbursement coverage contribute to the 12% growth rate.

Licensing and Other

Expected Growth: 16%

Natera's 16% growth in Licensing and Other is driven by increasing demand for its non-invasive genetic testing products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's proprietary technology and strong intellectual property portfolio also contribute to its growth, as it licenses its technology to other companies and generates revenue from royalties.

7. Detailed Products

Panorama

A non-invasive prenatal test (NIPT) that screens for chromosomal abnormalities, including trisomy 21 (Down syndrome), trisomy 18 (Edwards syndrome), trisomy 13 (Patau syndrome), and monosomy X (Turner syndrome)

Horizon

A carrier screening test that identifies individuals who are carriers of genetic mutations that could be passed on to their offspring

Signatera

A personalized circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) test that detects and monitors cancer mutations in blood

Prospera

A transplant rejection test that detects donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) in blood to monitor organ transplant rejection

8. Natera, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Natera's non-invasive genetic testing products are highly specialized, making substitutes less likely. However, the company's reliance on a single product, Panorama, increases the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Natera's customers, primarily healthcare providers and patients, have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong brand reputation and limited alternatives.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Natera's suppliers, primarily manufacturers of genetic testing equipment and reagents, have limited bargaining power due to the company's large scale and diversified supply chain.

Threat Of New Entrants

The genetic testing industry is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market with innovative products and services, posing a significant threat to Natera's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The genetic testing industry is highly competitive, with several established players, including Illumina and Quest Diagnostics, competing for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 32.88%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 67.12%
Equity Cost 10.81%
WACC 8.55%
Leverage 48.99%

11. Quality Control: Natera, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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LabCorp

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Medpace

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 1.3

Growth: 9.2

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Natera

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.0

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Waters

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 6.3

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Twist Bioscience

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.0

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Charles River Laboratories

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

244.55$

Current Price

244.55$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows