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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

NexPoint Residential Trust is a publicly traded REIT, with its shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "NXRT," primarily focused on acquiring, owning and operating well-located middle-income multifamily properties with "value-add" potential in large cities and suburban submarkets of large cities, primarily in the Southeastern and Southwestern United States.NXRT is externally advised by NexPoint Real Estate Advisors, L.P., an affiliate of NexPoint Advisors, L.P., an SEC-registered investment advisor, which has extensive real estate experience.

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1.b. Last Insights on NXRT

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a "Reduce" average rating from analysts, with two sell and five hold recommendations. The company's Q4 2025 earnings call highlighted headwinds, including a 7.9% Core FFO decline expected in 2026 due to swap expirations and declining net operating income. Additionally, the company's 2025 financial results showed a net loss of $32.0M, compared to net income of $1.1M in 2024 (Source: Feb 24, 2026 press release).

1.c. Company Highlights

2. NexPoint Residential Trust: A Deeper Dive into Q4 2025 Earnings

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. reported a net loss of $10.3 million or $0.41 per diluted share in Q4 2025, on total revenue of $62.1 million. This compares to a net loss of $26.9 million or $1.06 per diluted share in Q4 2024. The company's Core FFO was $16.5 million or $0.65 per diluted share, compared to $0.68 per diluted share in Q4 2024. Actual EPS came out at $0.75, beating estimates at $0.72. Net Operating Income (NOI) was $37.1 million, a 4.7% decrease from Q4 2024. Same-store rental income decreased 2.8%, and same-store occupancy was 92.7%. For full-year 2025, net loss was $32 million or $1.26 per diluted share, and NOI was $151.7 million, a 3.4% decrease from 2024.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • Reduced Net Loss Q4 2025:: Net loss narrowed to $10.3M ($0.41/share) from $26.9M ($1.06/share) in Q4 2024 despite $62.1M revenue.
  • NOI Decline:: Q4 NOI dropped 4.7% YoY to $37.1M, driven by 2.8% lower same-store rental income and 92.7% occupancy.
  • Core FFO Stability:: Q4 Core FFO at $0.65/share (vs. $0.68/share in 2024), with full-year 2025 Core FFO at $2.79/share.
  • Dividend Growth:: Dividend increased 157.3% since inception, paid $0.53/share in Q4 2025, covered by 65–75% of Core FFO.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Projects Core FFO/share of $2.42–$2.71 and same-store NOI growth of -2.5% to 1.5%, with $121.7M liquidity.

Operational Highlights

The company's portfolio level jobs/new construction unit ratio bottomed at approximately 1.5 jobs to 1 unit of new delivery in mid-2025 and is projected to cross back above the historically significant ratio of 4 jobs to 1 unit by 2027. However, the recovery is highly asymmetric, with roughly 35% of the portfolio, including South Florida, Las Vegas, and Atlanta, already at or approaching equilibrium, while 44%, including Phoenix and DFW, will not reach that threshold until 2026. The company plans to do 300 full upgrades and 400 partial upgrades across the portfolio in 2026, with the potential to drive up to 1,500 additional bespoke upgrades if market conditions allow.

Valuation and Dividend Analysis

The current valuation metrics suggest a mixed picture, with a P/E Ratio of -21.72, P/B Ratio of 2.35, and Dividend Yield of 7.52%. The dividend is covered by cash flow, with a target ratio of 65% to 75% of Core FFO. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.0%. The company's guidance for 2026 includes rental income growth of 0% to 1.9%, and same-store NOI growth of -2.5% to 1.5%. Core FFO per diluted share guidance is $2.42 to $2.71.

Outlook and Conclusion

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is optimistic about a new lease inflection in the Sun Belt this year for the vast majority of its portfolio. The average renter is largely blue-collar, 38 years old, with a household income of $90,000 per year, which is not heavily impacted by AI. The 65+ population is 5% across NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. markets, and Harvard JCHS projects the senior renter population to double from 5,800,000 households to 12,200,000 households by 2030. The company's available liquidity is $121.7 million, and total indebtedness is $1.6 billion at an adjusted weighted average interest rate of 3.28%.

3. NewsRoom

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Buy 8 S&P 600 Small-Cap 'Safer' April DiviDogs

Apr -10

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Mousetraps: 9 High-Yield REITs With Risky Dividends

Apr -08

Source: seekingalpha.com

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NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. Announces First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call

Apr -07

Source: prnewswire.com

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Financial Comparison: NexPoint Residential Trust (NYSE:NXRT) & Elme Communities (NYSE:ELME)

Mar -29

Source: defenseworld.net

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NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. (NYSE:NXRT) Receives Average Recommendation of “Reduce” from Analysts

Mar -13

Source: defenseworld.net

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NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. Announces Record Date and Date of 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders

Mar -11

Source: prnewswire.com

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Critical Review: NexPoint Residential Trust (NYSE:NXRT) and Centerspace (NYSE:CSR)

Mar -10

Source: defenseworld.net

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NexPoint Residential Trust: 2026 Outlook Reflects Multiple Headwinds (Upgrade)

Feb -27

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.89%)

6. Segments

Rental

Expected Growth: 4.83%

NexPoint Residential Trust's 4.83% rental growth is driven by strong demand for single-family rentals, increasing occupancy rates, and rising rents in its target markets. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions and dispositions, as well as its focus on value-add renovations, contribute to its growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 7.4%

NexPoint Residential Trust's 7.4% growth is driven by increasing demand for single-family rental properties, strategic acquisitions, and effective asset management. Additionally, the company's focus on value-add renovations and strong operational efficiency contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the growing need for affordable housing and favorable demographic trends in the US also support the company's expansion.

7. Detailed Products

Multifamily Properties

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. owns and operates a diversified portfolio of multifamily properties, offering residents a range of amenities and services.

Apartment Communities

The company's apartment communities provide residents with a range of floor plans, amenities, and services, including swimming pools, fitness centers, and community spaces.

Rental Housing Solutions

NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. offers a range of rental housing solutions, including apartments, townhomes, and single-family homes, to meet the diverse needs of residents.

Property Management Services

The company provides comprehensive property management services, including leasing, maintenance, and financial management, to optimize property performance.

8. NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative investment options in the real estate industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is low due to the company's diversified portfolio and lack of dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is medium due to the company's reliance on a few key suppliers for property management and maintenance services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the REIT industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 74.87%
Debt Cost 10.23%
Equity Weight 25.13%
Equity Cost 10.23%
WACC 10.23%
Leverage 297.91%

11. Quality Control: NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Clipper Realty

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
NexPoint Residential Trust

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Centerspace

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BRT Apartments

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
UMH Properties

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Bluerock Homes Trust

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

26.62$

Current Price

26.62$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows