Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America.It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation.

The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting.As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers.Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on ODFL

Breaking News: Old Dominion Freight Line Inc reported weak LTL unit performance for November with revenue per day falling 4.4% year over year. This decline was due to a 10% decrease in LTL tons per day, partially offset by an increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The company's performance is in line with the overall transport sector which saw a collective 10% gain for the week in its industry group. Analysts are debating the future of transport stocks following recent slumps. A hold recommendation is given by some analysts.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	155.15
Change Percentage	1.07%
Open	153.03
Previous Close	153.51
Market Cap ( Millions)	32442
Volume	2829664
Year High	209.61
Year Low	126.01
M A 50	138.12
M A 200	154.21

FCF Yield	2.84%
Dividend Yield	0.72%
ROE	24.92%
Debt / Equity	1.99%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	2.31%
Price To Book	7.68
Price Earnings Ratio	30.95
Price To FCF	35.23
Price To sales	5.82
EV / EBITDA	19.53

2. Old Dominion Freight Line's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst a Challenging Environment

Old Dominion Freight Line reported revenue of $1.41 billion for the third quarter of 2025, a 4.3% decrease from the prior year, primarily due to a 9% decrease in LTL tons per day, partially offset by a 4.7% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. The company's operating ratio increased 160 basis points to 74.3%, driven by the deleveraging effect of decreased revenue on overhead expenses. Despite the challenging macro environment, Old Dominion's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.28, beating analyst estimates of $1.22.

Publication Date: Oct -31

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Decline:
                                                Q3 2025 revenue fell 4.3% to $1.41 billion, driven by a 9% drop in LTL tons per day, partially offset by a 4.7% rise in LTL revenue per hundredweight.
Operating Ratio Increase:
                                                Operating ratio rose 160 bps to 74.3%, impacted by revenue decline and fixed cost leverage, with Q4 expected to see a further 250–350 bps sequential rise.
Cash Flow & Share Repurchases:
                                                Generated $437.5M in Q3 operating cash flow ($1.1B YTD), funding $180.8M in share repurchases and $58.7M in dividends.
Market Share Stability:
                                                Maintained 11.8% LTL market share over three years, despite a 32/35-month freight recession, with 23/28 service attributes rated #1 by Mastio.
Strategic Cost Control:
                                                Reduced variable costs as % of revenue, achieved 44% compensation costs ratio (vs. 2022–2023 44%), and plans tech-driven efficiency gains for long-term OR improvement.

                                

Financial Performance

The company's cash flow from operations totaled $437.5 million for the third quarter and $1.1 billion for the first 9 months of 2025, with capital expenditures of $94 million and $369.3 million for those same periods. Old Dominion repurchased shares worth $180.8 million and paid $58.7 million in cash dividends during the third quarter, demonstrating its commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Operational Highlights

Old Dominion remains focused on delivering superior service at a fair price, investing in new service centers, equipment, technologies, and people. The company was named the #1 national LTL provider for the 16th consecutive year by Mastio & Company, finishing first in 23 of 28 categories evaluated. This achievement underscores the company's commitment to service excellence and its ability to maintain a strong market position.

Market Dynamics and Outlook

The current weak demand environment has been challenging, with the freight recession lasting for 32 of the last 35 months. However, the company has controlled expenses and maintained its variable costs as a percentage of revenue. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.0%, and with a current P/E Ratio of 27.38 and ROE of 24.92%, the company's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong market position and history of delivering value to customers.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 5.17 and an EV/EBITDA of 17.38, Old Dominion's valuation multiples suggest a moderate premium to its historical averages. However, the company's strong track record of cost management, its focus on technology-enabled features, and its commitment to maintaining market share position it well for long-term growth. As the market continues to evolve, Old Dominion's ability to balance pricing discipline with network density will be crucial in driving profitable growth.

3. NewsRoom

5 Transport Stocks Are Spiking After Slumps. Analysts Debate Their Future.

Dec -03

Source:

Old Dominion Unveils Weak LTL Unit Performance for November

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

Old Dominion Freight Line Provides Update for Fourth Quarter 2025

Dec -02

Source: businesswire.com

The Next 3 Years Could Make Or Break Portfolios - Here's My Plan

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

Top 15 High-Growth Dividend Stocks For December 2025

Dec -02

Source: seekingalpha.com

Old Dominion University Announces Establishment of the Joan P. Brock Institute for Nutrition Science and Health

Dec -01

Source: globenewswire.com

Live Nasdaq Composite: Stocks Start December on Sour Note as Tech Retreats

Dec -01

Source: 247wallst.com

Associated Banc Corp Boosts Stake in Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. $ODFL

Nov -25

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.00%)

6. Segments

Transportation - Trucking

Expected Growth: 5.0%

The growth is expected due to increasing demand for e-commerce and a strong economy, leading to higher freight volumes and pricing power.

7. Detailed Products

LTL Freight

Less Than Truckload (LTL) freight services for shipments that do not require a full truckload

Truckload Freight

Full truckload freight services for large shipments that require a dedicated truck

Intermodal Services

Combination of truck and rail transportation for long-haul shipments

Expedited Services

Time-critical freight services for urgent shipments

Dedicated Services

Customized transportation solutions for unique business needs

Warehousing and Distribution

Storage and distribution services for inventory management and order fulfillment

Supply Chain Consulting

Expert analysis and optimization of logistics operations

8. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to the high barriers to entry in the trucking industry, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of large shippers who can negotiate better rates, but the company's diverse customer base and long-term contracts mitigate this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its large scale of operations and ability to negotiate better prices with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a low threat of new entrants due to the high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles in the trucking industry, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	2.20%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	97.80%
Equity Cost	9.30%
WACC	9.19%
Leverage	2.24%

11. Quality Control: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Waste Management

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Deere

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Union Pacific

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Wabtec

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Old Dominion Freight Line

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

14.48%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

9.19%

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. - US6795801009

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ODFL

1.c. Company Highlights

Expensive

Better Quality

Stable Momentum

Average Growth

Earnings Beats

Higher Growth

Revenues Miss

Weak Momentum

Revenues Beats

2. Old Dominion Freight Line's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst a Challenging Environment

Financial Performance

Operational Highlights

Market Dynamics and Outlook

Valuation and Growth Prospects

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.00%)

6. Segments

Transportation - Trucking

Expected Growth: 5.0%

7. Detailed Products

LTL Freight

Truckload Freight

Intermodal Services

Expedited Services

Dedicated Services

Warehousing and Distribution

Supply Chain Consulting

8. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

155.15$

Current Price

155.15$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA