Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America.It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including expedited transportation.

The company also offers various value-added services, such as container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting.As of December 31, 2021, it owned and operated 10,403 tractors, 27,917 linehaul trailers, and 13,303 pickup and delivery trailers; 3 fleet maintenance centers; and 251 service centers.Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.

was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on ODFL

Old Dominion Freight Line's recent performance was positively driven by its better-than-expected Q4 earnings announcement, which included a $1.09 per diluted share earnings and $1.31 billion in revenue. The company's operating ratio increased to 76.7%, and it reported a 5.7% decrease in revenue from the prior year. Despite a challenging freight environment, management expressed cautious optimism about demand improvement in 2026. The company also raised its dividend, indicating a commitment to shareholder value. Assenagon Asset Management S.A. increased its position in ODFL shares by 31.2%.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	201.39
Change Percentage	3.19%
Open	194.18
Previous Close	195.17
Market Cap ( Millions)	42110
Volume	2002680
Year High	208.74
Year Low	126.01
M A 50	174.04
M A 200	156.69

FCF Yield	2.19%
Dividend Yield	0.56%
ROE	24.03%
Debt / Equity	0.93%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-4.64%
Price To Book	9.81
Price Earnings Ratio	41.29
Price To FCF	45.74
Price To sales	7.66
EV / EBITDA	24.36

2. Old Dominion Freight Line's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Deeper Dive

Old Dominion Freight Line reported revenue of $1,310,000,000 for 2025, a 5.7% decrease from the prior year, with an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.09, beating analyst estimates of $1.06. The company's operating ratio increased to 76.7%, but management believes their profitability metrics will continue to lead the industry. The company's cash flow from operations totaled $310,200,000 for the fourth quarter and $1,400,000,000 for the year, respectively.

Publication Date: Feb -05

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Decline:
                                                2025 revenue fell 5.7% to $1.31 billion, driven by a 10.7% drop in LTL tons per day.
Operating Ratio:
                                                Increased to 76.7%, with CFO Adam Satterfield emphasizing continued industry-leading profitability metrics.
Year-End Cash Flow:
                                                Generated $1.4 billion in annual cash flow from operations and $310.2 million in Q4 alone.
Revenue per Hundredweight:
                                                Excluding fuel surcharges, LTL revenue per hundredweight rose 4.9% year-over-year.
Q1 Revenue Guidance:
                                                Expected to range between $1.25 billion and $1.3 billion, with improved weight per shipment trends in January (14.9 lbs).

                                

Revenue and Yield Performance

The company's revenue results reflect a 10.7% decrease in LTL tons per day, partially offset by a 5.6% increase in LTL revenue per hundredweight. Excluding fuel surcharges, LTL revenue per hundredweight increased 4.9% compared to 2024. The company saw positive signs in demand, with a 2% increase in weight per shipment in December, continuing into January with weight per shipment at 14.9 pounds.

Operational Efficiency and Cost Management

The company's team continued to operate efficiently while managing discretionary spending. Direct operating costs as a percent of revenue improved by 60 basis points as compared to 2024. The company has reduced headcount by 6% and shipments by 10%, but is prepared to capture the upside when the cycle inflects. The average fleet age has improved to 3.9 years, around the target of 4 years.

Guidance and Outlook

The company expects revenue for the first quarter to be between $1,250,000,000 and $1,300,000,000. Management is cautiously optimistic about the future, with a focus on controlling what they can control to ensure they deliver an unmatched value proposition for their customers. As Adam Satterfield mentioned, "We've seen capacity rationalization in the industry, which has changed the pricing environment."

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 42.76 and an expected revenue growth of 8.4% next year, the market is pricing in significant growth prospects. The company's ROIC of 21.73% and ROE of 24.03% indicate strong profitability. The current valuation multiples suggest that the market is expecting sustained improvement in the company's performance, driven by its focus on operational efficiency, cost management, and strategic investments.

3. NewsRoom

Insider Selling: Old Dominion Freight Line (NASDAQ:ODFL) Director Sells $608,842.18 in Stock

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

Up 24% Already This Year, Is It Too Late to Buy This Dividend Stock?

Feb -20

Source: fool.com

NEOS Investment Management LLC Has $11.84 Million Holdings in Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. $ODFL

Feb -18

Source: defenseworld.net

David Rolfe's Strategic Moves: Chubb Ltd Takes Center Stage with 3.29% Portfolio Share

Feb -17

Source: gurufocus.com

Caprock Group LLC Invests $1.66 Million in Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. $ODFL

Feb -14

Source: defenseworld.net

50% In Just 5 Stocks: Why I'm Willing To Invest Big In High-Quality

Feb -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

ProShare Advisors LLC Sells 60,506 Shares of Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. $ODFL

Feb -10

Source: defenseworld.net

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (NASDAQ:ODFL) Receives Average Recommendation of “Hold” from Analysts

Feb -09

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.00%)

6. Segments

Transportation - Trucking

Expected Growth: 5.0%

The growth is expected due to increasing demand for e-commerce and a strong economy, leading to higher freight volumes and pricing power.

7. Detailed Products

LTL Freight

Less Than Truckload (LTL) freight services for shipments that do not require a full truckload

Truckload Freight

Full truckload freight services for large shipments that require a dedicated truck

Intermodal Services

Combination of truck and rail transportation for long-haul shipments

Expedited Services

Time-critical freight services for urgent shipments

Dedicated Services

Customized transportation solutions for unique business needs

Warehousing and Distribution

Storage and distribution services for inventory management and order fulfillment

Supply Chain Consulting

Expert analysis and optimization of logistics operations

8. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to the high barriers to entry in the trucking industry, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers due to the presence of large shippers who can negotiate better rates, but the company's diverse customer base and long-term contracts mitigate this risk.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its large scale of operations and ability to negotiate better prices with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. has a low threat of new entrants due to the high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles in the trucking industry, making it difficult for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	2.20%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	97.80%
Equity Cost	9.30%
WACC	9.19%
Leverage	2.24%

11. Quality Control: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Union Pacific

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Deere

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Waste Management

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 2.1

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Wabtec

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Old Dominion Freight Line

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

17.99%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

9.19%

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. - US6795801009

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ODFL

1.c. Company Highlights

Expensive

Better Quality

Stable Momentum

Average Growth

Earnings Beats

Higher Growth

Revenues Miss

Weak Momentum

Revenues Beats

2. Old Dominion Freight Line's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Deeper Dive

Revenue and Yield Performance

Operational Efficiency and Cost Management

Guidance and Outlook

Valuation and Growth Prospects

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.00%)

6. Segments

Transportation - Trucking

Expected Growth: 5.0%

7. Detailed Products

LTL Freight

Truckload Freight

Intermodal Services

Expedited Services

Dedicated Services

Warehousing and Distribution

Supply Chain Consulting

8. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

201.39$

Current Price

201.39$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA