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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Micromidas, Inc., doing business as Origin Materials, produces and commercializes plant-based PET plastic.It develops a platform for turning the carbon found in biomass into useful materials, while capturing carbon in the process.The company serves tire filler, carbon black, agriculture, and activated carbon markets.


Micromidas, Inc.has a strategic alliance with Palantir Technologies Inc.The company was incorporated in 2008 and is based in West Sacramento, California with a facility in Sarnia, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ORGN

Origin Materials, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by shareholder class action lawsuit and derivative lawsuit settlements, which may indicate governance issues. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted ongoing challenges. Additionally, an investigation by Halper Sadeh LLC into potential breaches of fiduciary duties by certain officers and directors may have contributed to investor concerns. These developments may have overshadowed the company's efforts to enable the transition to sustainable materials.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Origin's Financial Performance: A Deeper Dive

Origin's financial performance for the quarter was characterized by a continued investment in growth, with revenues expected to reach $20 million to $30 million in 2026 and $100 million to $200 million in 2027. The company's adjusted EBITDA run rate is expected to breakeven in 2027. The actual EPS came out at '-0.11', relative to estimates at '-0.07', indicating a higher loss per share than expected. The company's cash position has been strengthened with a financing deal composed of $15 million in cash, with the capacity for additional tranches up to a total of $90 million as needed.

Publication Date: Nov -18

📋 Highlights
  • Secured $15M Cash with $90M Financing Capacity: $15 million in cash secured, with up to $90 million in additional tranches available for growth and cash flow management.
  • CapFormer Line 6 Factory Acceptance Testing on Track for 2025: Maintains schedule for FAT completion by year-end 2025, with Line 7/8 start-up delayed to Q1 2027.
  • 2026-2027 Revenue Guidance Confirmed: Projects $20–30M in 2026 and $100–200M in 2027, with EBITDA breakeven expected in 2027.
  • First Customer Order from Berlin Packaging: Executing first order for water application, expanding global sales pipeline across four continents.
  • Technical Advancements in Cap Performance: Exceeded impact resistance and multi-day stress test benchmarks, progressing toward consolidated cap design trials.

Financial Guidance and Outlook

The company's financial guidance remains unchanged, with a focus on optimizing capital deployment and maintaining a healthy cash flow. The expected drawdown of additional tranches in 2026 is anticipated to support the company's growth plans, although the company is not obligated to do so. As Matt Plavan noted, "We anticipate drawing additional tranches in 2026 as needed, although we are not obligated to do so," highlighting the company's flexibility in managing its capital structure.

Operational Highlights and Customer Demand

Operationally, Origin is making progress on its CapFormer deployment schedule, with factory acceptance testing on track for completion by the end of 2025. The company is also executing its water-first go-to-market strategy, with a first order from Berlin Packaging, which is now being fulfilled. Customer demand remains strong, driven by the increasing awareness of Origin's products and capabilities, particularly in the context of sustainability and end-of-life recycling.

Valuation Metrics

Looking at Origin's valuation metrics, the company's P/S Ratio stands at 2.51, indicating a relatively high revenue multiple. The EV/EBITDA ratio is -0.57, reflecting the company's negative EBITDA. The P/E Ratio is -0.79, and the P/B Ratio is 0.23, suggesting that the company's valuation is largely driven by its growth prospects rather than current earnings. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 144.8%, indicating a significant increase in revenues.

3. NewsRoom

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Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Origin Materials Announces Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release Date and Conference Call

Oct -30

Source: businesswire.com

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Notice to Shareholders Regarding Settlements

Oct -27

Source: businesswire.com

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Halper Sadeh LLC Encourages Origin Materials, Inc. Shareholders to Contact the Firm to Discuss Their Rights

Oct -23

Source: businesswire.com

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Origin Materials, Inc. - Special Call

Oct -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Origin Materials, Inc. (ORGN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -15

Source: seekingalpha.com

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First Origin PET Caps in Stores with Power Hydration Pilot Launch

Aug -14

Source: businesswire.com

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Origin Materials Announces Strategic Customer Relationship with Berlin Packaging for Sustainable PET Bottlecaps

Aug -05

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (13.07%)

6. Segments

Biomass Conversion Technology

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Growing demand for sustainable alternatives to fossil fuels, increasing adoption of renewable energy sources, and government initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions drive the growth of Origin Materials' biomass conversion technology.

Services

Expected Growth: 25.4%

Growing demand for sustainable materials, increasing adoption of carbon-neutral technologies, and partnerships with major companies drive Origin Materials' growth, as companies seek to reduce their carbon footprint and meet ESG goals.

7. Detailed Products

Carbon-Negative Chemicals

Origin Materials, Inc. produces carbon-negative chemicals that replace fossil fuels as the feedstock for the production of various chemicals, such as PET, MDI, and PC.

Carbon-Negative Plastics

The company develops carbon-negative plastics that can replace traditional plastics in various applications, including packaging, textiles, and automotive parts.

Carbon-Negative Fuels

Origin Materials, Inc. produces carbon-negative fuels that can be used as a drop-in replacement for fossil fuels in various industries, including transportation and power generation.

Carbon-Negative Building Materials

The company develops carbon-negative building materials, such as carbon-negative concrete, that can be used in construction and infrastructure projects.

Carbon-Negative Packaging

Origin Materials, Inc. produces carbon-negative packaging materials that can replace traditional packaging materials, reducing waste and greenhouse gas emissions.

8. Origin Materials, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Origin Materials, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative materials and technologies that can replace the company's products.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Origin Materials, Inc. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and the lack of alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Origin Materials, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers and the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Origin Materials, Inc. is high due to the low barriers to entry and the attractiveness of the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Origin Materials, Inc. is high due to the high level of competition in the industry and the company's small market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 1.30%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 98.70%
Equity Cost 8.05%
WACC 7.99%
Leverage 1.32%

11. Quality Control: Origin Materials, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Valhi

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 9.5

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AdvanSix

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
LSB Industries

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ASP Isotopes

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Rayonier Advanced Materials

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 0.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Origin Materials

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.45$

Current Price

0.45$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows