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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PHX Minerals Inc.operates as a natural gas and oil mineral company in the United States.The company produces and sells natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids.


Its principal properties are located in Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Arkansas.As of September 30, 2021, the company owned perpetual ownership of 251,600 net mineral acres; leased 18,298 net acres; and held working interests and royalty interests in 6,457 producing oil and natural gas wells, as well as had 277 wells in the process of being drilled or completed.It sells its products to various purchasers, including pipeline and marketing companies.


The company was formerly known as Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc.and changed its name to PHX Minerals Inc.in October 2020.


PHX Minerals Inc.was founded in 1926 and is based in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.

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1.b. Last Insights on PHX

The recent performance of PHX Minerals Inc. was driven by several positive factors. The company reported strong financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2025, with consolidated revenue increasing to an all-time quarterly record of $193.7 million. This represents a 17% year-over-year increase and an 8% improvement over the previous quarterly record. Additionally, PHX Energy, a related entity, announced all-time record revenue and strong profitability for the same period. The company also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per common share, payable on April 15, 2025. Furthermore, PHX Minerals Inc. announced that it will be acquired by WhiteHawk Income Corporation in an all-cash transaction valued at $4.35 per share, or approximately $187 million, including PHX's net debt.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PHX Minerals Inc.: 2024 Earnings Analysis

PHX Minerals Inc. navigated a challenging 2024 with a mixed performance, reflecting broader macroeconomic headwinds. Despite low natural gas prices and reduced industry activity, the company reported a 5% year-over-year increase in total production volumes and an 8% rise in royalty volumes. EBITDA decreased slightly, but the decline was mitigated by the company's hedging program, which provided stability in a volatile environment. Notably, PHX announced a 33% dividend increase in Q3 2024, signaling its commitment to returning capital to shareholders despite the challenging landscape. Analysts currently estimate a -0.8% decline in revenues for 2025, suggesting cautious optimism about the company's ability to stabilize and grow in the coming year.

Publication Date: Mar -14

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Production Growth Despite Challenges: - PHX Minerals achieved a 5% year-over-year increase in total production volumes and an 8% rise in royalty volumes despite macroeconomic headwinds like low natural gas prices and geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Significant Dividend Increase: - The company announced a 33% dividend increase in Q3 2024, reflecting its strong financial position and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
  • Financial Discipline and Debt Reduction: - PHX sold non-producing legacy assets for $8 million in January 2025, using the proceeds to reduce debt to $19.8 million, lowering its leverage to under one times trailing EBITDA.
  • Robust Growth Potential: - The company reported a robust inventory of 2,400 undrilled probable locations, signaling strong future growth potential and resilience in the face of industry challenges.
  • Optimism for 2025: - Executives expressed confidence in 2025, citing improving natural gas fundamentals and strategic initiatives to enhance shareholder value, with plans for further updates on strategic alternatives and investor outreach.

Operational Resilience and Strategic Initiatives

PHX Minerals demonstrated operational resilience by achieving steady well conversion rates and maintaining development across both legacy and acquired assets. Danielle Mezo, CEO, highlighted the company's ability to execute on its growth strategy, emphasizing the robust inventory of 2,400 undrilled probable locations as a key driver of future growth. The sale of non-producing legacy assets for $8 million in January 2025 marked a strategic move to optimize the balance sheet, reducing debt to $19.8 million and lowering leverage to under one times trailing EBITDA. This deleveraging effort underscores management's focus on financial discipline and capital allocation efficiency.

Valuation and Outlook

From a valuation perspective, PHX Minerals appears reasonably priced relative to its peers. The company's trailing 12-month P/E ratio of 29.74 reflects investors' confidence in its long-term growth potential, despite near-term challenges. The dividend yield of 3.62% further enhances the stock's appeal, offering investors a steady income stream. Additionally, the company's strong free cash flow yield of 6.12% highlights its ability to generate returns through operations. With improving natural gas fundamentals and strategic initiatives to enhance shareholder value, PHX Minerals is well-positioned to navigate the evolving energy landscape and capitalize on future growth opportunities.

3. NewsRoom

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PHX Energy Services: Strong Cash Flows Fully Cover Generous Dividends

Nov -09

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PHX Energy Announces Third Quarter Results & 2026 Capital Expenditure Budget

Nov -04

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PHX Energy Receives TSX Approval for Renewal of Normal Course Issuer Bid

Aug -13

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PHX Energy Announces Second Quarter Results and Record Second Quarter Revenue

Aug -05

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PHX Energy Services: Raking In Dividends While Waiting For Share Price Appreciation

Jul -22

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WhiteHawk Completes Acquisition of PHX

Jun -23

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WhiteHawk Completes Tender Offer for Acquisition of PHX

Jun -21

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PHX Energy Services Corp. Announces Quarterly Dividend

Jun -13

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.83%)

6. Segments

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 4.83%

PHX Minerals Inc.'s 4.83% growth in Natural Gas is driven by increasing demand from power generation and industrial sectors, coupled with rising LNG exports. Additionally, the company's strategic acreage positions in the Haynesville and SCOOP/STACK plays, as well as its focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction, contribute to its growth momentum.

Oil

Expected Growth: 4.83%

PHX Minerals Inc.'s 4.83% growth in oil is driven by increasing demand from the transportation sector, improved drilling efficiency, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, rising global energy consumption, favorable government policies, and growing demand from emerging markets also contribute to this growth.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 4.83%

PHX Minerals Inc.'s 4.83% growth in Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increasing demand for petrochemical feedstocks, strong drilling activity in the Permian Basin, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improving infrastructure and transportation networks have enhanced access to markets, while favorable pricing and hedging strategies have supported revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mineral Royalties

PHX Minerals Inc. owns a diverse portfolio of mineral royalties, providing a steady stream of revenue from oil and gas production on its properties.

Oil and Gas Working Interests

The company acquires and manages working interests in oil and gas wells, providing a direct stake in the production and revenue of these wells.

Mineral Acreage

PHX Minerals Inc. acquires and manages mineral acreage, providing a foundation for future oil and gas production and royalty generation.

Data and Analytics

The company provides access to a comprehensive database of oil and gas production data, well information, and market analytics.

8. PHX Minerals Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for PHX Minerals Inc. is moderate, as there are alternative mineral exploration and production companies that can provide similar services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for PHX Minerals Inc. is low, as the company has a diverse customer base and is not heavily dependent on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for PHX Minerals Inc. is moderate, as the company relies on a few key suppliers for its operations, but has some flexibility to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for PHX Minerals Inc. is high, as the mineral exploration and production industry is attractive and has relatively low barriers to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for PHX Minerals Inc. is high, as the company operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 21.35%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 78.65%
Equity Cost 6.88%
WACC 6.25%
Leverage 27.14%

11. Quality Control: PHX Minerals Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Vitesse Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
PHX Minerals

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Evolution Petroleum

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
PrimeEnergy Resources

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 8.9

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
HighPeak Energy

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 9.4

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Epsilon Energy

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.35$

Current Price

4.35$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows