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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Sibanye Stillwater Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a precious metals mining company in South Africa, the United States, Zimbabwe, Canada, and Argentina.The company produces gold; platinum group metals (PGMs), including palladium, platinum, and rhodium; and by-products, such as iridium, ruthenium, nickel, copper, and chrome.It owns the East Boulder and Stillwater mines located in Montana, the United States; and Columbus metallurgical complex, which smelts the material mined to produce PGM-rich filter cake, as well as conducts PGM recycling activities.


The company is also involved in the Kroondal, Rustenburg, Marikana, and Platinum Mile operations situated in South Africa; Mimosa located on the southern portion in Zimbabwe; the Driefontein, Kloof, and Cooke surface operations located on the West Rand of the Witwatersrand Basin; and the Beatrix situated in the southern Free State.In addition, it owns an interest in surface tailings retreatment facilities; the Marathon PGM project in Ontario, Canada; the Altar and Rio Grande copper gold projects in the Andes in north-west Argentina; the Hoedspruit; and the Burnstone and southern Free State gold projects in South Africa.Sibanye Stillwater Limited was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Weltevreden Park, South Africa.

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1.b. Last Insights on SBSW

Sibanye Stillwater's recent performance has been driven by its successful diversification strategy, which has led to a significant financial turnaround. The company's H1 2025 results showed a 127% year-over-year EBITDA growth to $818M, beating consensus expectations. This strong performance was supported by a robust free cash flow generation. The company's strategic repositioning, including restructuring of low-margin operations and pursuit of trade remedies against Russian palladium, is expected to further enhance its market position. A recent earnings call highlighted the company's progress, with management's efforts to drive growth and profitability.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Sibanye Stillwater's Earnings Report: A Mixed Bag

Sibanye Stillwater reported a mixed set of financial results for the six months ended June 30, 2025. Group revenue decreased by 1% to ZAR 54.8 billion, while cost of sales decreased by 20%. EBITDA increased from ZAR 6.6 billion to ZAR 15.1 billion, driven by a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA at the group's gold operations. Headline earnings per share increased from ZAR 0.10 per share to ZAR 1.90 per share, a 19x increase. The actual EPS came out at ZAR 0.4296, beating estimates of ZAR 0.2299.

Publication Date: Aug -29

📋 Highlights
  • EBITDA Surge:: Group adjusted EBITDA rose 120% YoY to ZAR 10 billion, even excluding 45x credits.
  • Debt Reduction:: Net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio fell to below 1x, with plans to reduce gross debt via cash conversion.
  • Safety Improvement:: Total recordable injury frequency rate hit 3.9 (lowest ever), though 3 fatalities were reported.
  • Lithium Project Impairment:: Keliber lithium project impaired by 35% due to oversupply, with revised EUR 783 million CapEx.
  • DRD Gold Performance:: Adjusted EBITDA surged 70% YoY to ZAR 1.8 billion, despite 8% production decline.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was driven by a strong increase in EBITDA, driven by a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA at the group's gold operations. The group's gold operations reported a 118% increase in adjusted EBITDA to ZAR 4.8 billion, driven by a 36% year-on-year increase in the gold price to ZAR 1.8 million per kilogram. The company's PGM operations also reported a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by a Section 45X credit of $159 million.

Operational Performance

The company's operational performance was mixed, with some operations reporting significant improvements, while others struggled. The South African gold operations reported a 13% decline in production to 9.3 tonnes, while the DRD Gold operation reported an 8% decline in production to 2.27 tonnes. The Montana PGM operations reported a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA, driven by a Section 45X credit. The recycling business continued to perform well, with an adjusted EBITDA of $129 million.

Valuation Metrics

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 12.7%. The company's current valuation metrics are as follows: P/E Ratio: -12.7, P/B Ratio: 2.15, P/S Ratio: 0.84, EV/EBITDA: 9.33, Dividend Yield (%): 0.0, Free Cash Flow Yield (%): -11.62, ROIC (%): 9.61, ROE (%): -17.01, Net Debt / EBITDA: 2.02. These metrics suggest that the company's valuation is not overly expensive, but the negative P/E ratio and ROE are a concern.

Outlook

The company's outlook is cautiously optimistic, with Richard Stewart noting that most operations are within guidance, and the company looks forward to a constructive second half of 2025. The South African gold guidance has been revised down from 16-17 tonnes to 15-16 tonnes. The company remains focused on prioritizing safe production, optimizing margins, and strengthening the balance sheet.

3. NewsRoom

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Ethic Inc. Sells 6,630 Shares of Sibanye Gold Limited $SBSW

Nov -01

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Sibanye Stillwater: Real Potential Not Reflected In Stock Price

Oct -04

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Sibanye Stillwater's Diversification Strategy Pays Off

Sep -02

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Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -29

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Sibanye Stillwater Is More Than A Gold Miner, And I'm Long Because Of It

Jul -17

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Sibanye Stillwater's Market Positioning Should Drastically Improve

Jul -14

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CopperCorp Channel Sampling at Hydes Returns 24m of 0.74% Cu and 0.36 g/t Au - Plans for Drilling Hydes and Jukes

Jun -10

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Sibanye Stillwater's Turnaround Ignites, The Upside Is Still There

May -23

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.19%)

6. Segments

Marikana

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Sibanye Stillwater's Marikana segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increased platinum group metal (PGM) prices, improved operational efficiency, and higher production volumes. The segment has also benefited from the successful integration of the Rustenburg operations, which has enhanced its cost structure and competitiveness.

Rustenburg

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Rustenburg's 4.83% growth is driven by increased platinum group metals (PGMs) production, improved operational efficiency, and higher metal prices. The region's rich ore body and Sibanye Stillwater's investment in modernization and technology have enhanced productivity, while a favorable market environment has boosted revenue.

Recycling

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Sibanye Stillwater Limited's 8.5% recycling growth driven by increasing demand for environmentally friendly practices, government regulations promoting sustainable mining, and cost savings from reduced energy consumption and waste management. Additionally, the company's investment in technology and infrastructure upgrades has improved operational efficiency, further boosting recycling capabilities.

Underground

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Sibanye Stillwater's Underground segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increased gold production at its South African operations, improved operational efficiencies, and higher realized gold prices. Additionally, the company's cost-saving initiatives and successful integration of acquired assets have contributed to the segment's growth.

Kloof

Expected Growth: 4.73%

Kloof's 4.73% growth is driven by increased gold production, improved operational efficiency, and higher gold prices. The mine's life extension project and ongoing capital expenditure have also contributed to the growth. Additionally, Sibanye Stillwater's cost-saving initiatives and focus on operational excellence have enhanced Kloof's profitability.

Driefontein

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Driefontein's 4.83% growth is driven by increased gold production, improved operational efficiency, and higher gold prices. The mine's focus on reducing costs and improving grades has also contributed to its growth. Additionally, Sibanye Stillwater's efforts to optimize its operations and invest in digital technologies have enhanced Driefontein's performance.

DRDGOLD

Expected Growth: 4.73%

DRDGOLD's 4.73% growth is driven by Sibanye Stillwater Limited's strategic focus on increasing gold production, improving operational efficiencies, and reducing costs. Additionally, the company's investment in tailings retreatment and exploration activities has contributed to the growth. Furthermore, a favorable gold price environment and a strong balance sheet have also supported the company's growth momentum.

Beatrix

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Beatrix, a segment of Sibanye Stillwater Limited, has achieved a growth rate of 4.83%. This is driven by increased gold production, improved operational efficiencies, and a favorable gold price environment. Additionally, the segment has benefited from cost savings initiatives and a strong focus on safety, resulting in reduced operating costs and improved margins.

Kroondal

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Kroondal's 4.83% growth is driven by increased platinum group metal (PGM) prices, improved operational efficiency, and successful implementation of cost-saving initiatives. Additionally, the segment has benefited from a favorable exchange rate and higher sales volumes, contributing to its robust growth.

Corporate and Reconciling Items

Expected Growth: 4.4%

Sibanye Stillwater's 4.4% growth is driven by increased gold production at its South African operations, improved platinum group metals (PGMs) prices, and a weaker South African rand. Additionally, the company's cost-saving initiatives and operational efficiencies have contributed to the growth. The reconciliation of corporate and reconciling items is mainly attributed to the reduction in net debt and improved working capital management.

Mimosa

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Mimosa's 4.83% growth is driven by increased platinum group metal (PGM) prices, improved operational efficiency, and higher production volumes. The mine's low-cost profile, coupled with Sibanye Stillwater's successful cost-saving initiatives, have also contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the ongoing expansion projects and exploration activities are expected to sustain future growth.

Sandouville Nickel Refinery

Expected Growth: 4.65%

The 4.65% growth of Sandouville Nickel Refinery from Sibanye Stillwater Limited is driven by increasing demand for electric vehicle batteries, rising stainless steel production, and growing adoption of renewable energy technologies. Additionally, the refinery's strategic location and efficient operations contribute to its growth, along with favorable market conditions and strong customer relationships.

Century Zinc Retreatment

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Century Zinc Retreatment's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing zinc prices, strong demand from the galvanizing sector, and Sibanye Stillwater's operational efficiency improvements. Additionally, the retreatment process allows for the extraction of valuable metals from waste material, reducing costs and environmental liabilities, further contributing to the segment's growth.

Cooke

Expected Growth: 4.73%

Cooke's 4.73% growth is driven by increased gold production, improved operational efficiencies, and favorable gold prices. The integration of the Rustenburg operation has also contributed to the growth, along with a focus on cost management and capital discipline. Furthermore, the company's efforts to improve safety and reduce costs have enhanced its overall performance.

Platinum Mile

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Sibanye Stillwater's Platinum Mile segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increased platinum group metal (PGM) prices, improved operational efficiency, and higher production volumes. Additionally, the company's cost-saving initiatives and favorable exchange rates have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the segment has benefited from the ongoing recovery in the global automotive sector, which has boosted demand for PGMs used in catalytic converters.

7. Detailed Products

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs)

Sibanye Stillwater Limited is one of the largest producers of platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. These metals are used in various industrial, automotive, and jewelry applications.

Gold

Sibanye Stillwater Limited is a significant producer of gold, with operations in South Africa and the United States.

Rhodium

Sibanye Stillwater Limited is a major producer of rhodium, a rare and valuable platinum group metal.

Palladium

Sibanye Stillwater Limited is a significant producer of palladium, a valuable platinum group metal.

By-Products

Sibanye Stillwater Limited also produces by-products such as nickel, copper, and chrome, which are used in various industrial applications.

8. Sibanye Stillwater Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Sibanye Stillwater Limited is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and minerals in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Sibanye Stillwater Limited is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Sibanye Stillwater Limited is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for critical inputs.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Sibanye Stillwater Limited is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Sibanye Stillwater Limited is high due to the competitive nature of the mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 45.70%
Debt Cost 6.00%
Equity Weight 54.30%
Equity Cost 11.12%
WACC 8.78%
Leverage 84.16%

11. Quality Control: Sibanye Stillwater Limited passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Endeavour Mining

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Covestro

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 1.7

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Sibanye Stillwater

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Azelis

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 8.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Croda

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Constellium

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.33$

Current Price

12.34$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows