SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

SIGA Technologies, Inc., a commercial-stage pharmaceutical company, focuses on the health security and infectious disease markets in the United States.Its lead product is TPOXX, an oral formulation antiviral drug for the treatment of human smallpox disease caused by variola virus.SIGA Technologies, Inc.

has a strategic partnership with Cipla Therapeutics to deliver sustained innovation and access to antibacterial drugs primarily against biothreats.The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on SIGA

Recent negative drivers behind SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s stock performance include a media "spin" campaign to salvage TPOXX as a mpox treatment and preserve the Company's stock price despite disappointing top line results in the PALM 007 clinical trial. This has led to an ongoing investigation by Levi & Korsinsky concerning possible violations of federal securities laws. The company's stock price has been under pressure due to these allegations, which may impact investor confidence and sentiment.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	6.18
Change Percentage	-2.47%
Open	6.34
Previous Close	6.34
Market Cap ( Millions)	443
Volume	154264
Year High	9.62
Year Low	4.95
M A 50	7.57
M A 200	6.92

FCF Yield	26.89%
Dividend Yield	9.71%
ROE	40.55%
Debt / Equity	0.27%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-176.51%
Price To Book	2.11
Price Earnings Ratio	5.37
Price To FCF	3.72
Price To sales	2.46
EV / EBITDA	2.53

2. SIGA's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Growing Demand for TPOXX

SIGA's financial performance for the 9 months ended September 30, 2025, was marked by product sales of $86 million, comprising $53 million of oral TPOXX and $26 million of IV TPOXX sales under the 19C BARDA contract. The company's pre-tax operating income stood at $33 million. However, the actual EPS came out at -$0.06, falling short of estimates at $0.22. The revenue growth is expected to surge by 132.4% next year, indicating a strong outlook.

Publication Date: Nov -25

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    $86M in Product Revenue:
                                                over 9 months (Q3 2025), driven by $53M oral TPOXX and $26M IV TPOXX sales under BARDA.
$27M BARDA Award:
                                                secured for pediatric formulation development and IV technology transfer, advancing TPOXX's lifecycle.
$172M Cash Balance:
                                                with no debt, ensuring financial flexibility amid potential U.S. government procurement delays or shutdown impacts.
2026 FDA Submission Target:
                                                for TPOXX post-exposure prophylaxis program, with pediatric program progress under BARDA partnership.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company's work is focused on ensuring rapid and large-scale deployment of antiviral treatments, such as TPOXX, to save lives in the event of a potential smallpox outbreak. SIGA continues to engage with the U.S. government regarding future TPOXX development, manufacturing, and procurement, and has been awarded $27 million for pediatric formulation development and IV tech transfer activities. The company expects multiple international sales in 2026, driven by growing interest from key stakeholders across strategic markets.

Financial Strength and Flexibility

SIGA's strong balance sheet, with a cash balance of $172 million and no debt, provides flexibility to adapt to different environments and pursue opportunities while managing risks. The company's cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales was higher in the third quarter due to semi-fixed costs such as stability, storage, and security expenses. Despite this, SIGA's management team remains confident in the company's ability to adapt and navigate potential challenges.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 2.37 and an EV/EBITDA of 2.36, SIGA's valuation appears reasonable considering its growth prospects. The company's ROE stands at 40.55%, indicating strong profitability. As SIGA continues to advance its pediatric program in partnership with BARDA and targets an FDA submission for the TPOXX post-exposure prophylaxis program in 2026, its financial strength and operational progress are likely to drive growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 132.4%, which is a significant increase.

Risk Factors and Government Dependence

SIGA's business is heavily dependent on government contracts and procurement processes. The company believes that the key drivers of the procurement activity will be ultimately driven by the views and actions of leadership within the U.S. government. While there may be some impact from the U.S. government shutdown, SIGA's strong cash position and lack of debt provide a solid foundation to navigate any potential delays or challenges.

3. NewsRoom

Siga Technologies Sees Unusually Large Options Volume (NASDAQ:SIGA)

Nov -27

Source: defenseworld.net

Siga Technologies Inc. $SIGA Shares Sold by Aviva PLC

Nov -15

Source: defenseworld.net

SIGA Technologies, Inc. (SIGA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

SIGA Reports Financial Results for Three and Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025

Nov -06

Source: globenewswire.com

SIGA to Host Business Update Call on November 6, 2025 Following Release of Third-Quarter 2025 Results

Oct -30

Source: globenewswire.com

Saskatchewan Indian Gaming Authority (SIGA) Modernizes Point-of-Sale and Inventory Operations Across Seven Casinos with Agilysys Solutions

Sep -11

Source: businesswire.com

7 Big Yields From The Beat-Up Healthcare Sector

Sep -01

Source: forbes.com

SIGA Technologies: Still Bullish, But Worth Trimming Ahead Of BARDA News

Aug -20

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.27%)

6. Segments

Pharmaceutical

Expected Growth: 9.27%

SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s pharmaceutical segment growth of 9.27% is driven by increasing demand for its smallpox antiviral treatment, TPOXX, due to rising bioterrorism threats and government stockpiling. Additionally, the company's expanding pipeline of novel antiviral therapies and partnerships with government agencies and pharmaceutical companies contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

SIGA-246

A smallpox antiviral drug for the treatment of orthopoxvirus infections

ST-246

An oral antiviral drug for the treatment of smallpox and other orthopoxvirus infections

Tecovirimat

An oral antiviral drug for the treatment of smallpox and other orthopoxvirus infections

SIGA-988

A vaccine for the prevention of Lassa fever

8. SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for SIGA Technologies, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative products and services in the biodefense industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for SIGA Technologies, Inc. is low due to the company's strong relationships with government agencies and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for SIGA Technologies, Inc. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the biodefense industry, but the company's dependence on a few critical suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for SIGA Technologies, Inc. is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the biodefense industry and the potential for new companies to enter the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for SIGA Technologies, Inc. is medium due to the presence of several established players in the biodefense industry, but the company's strong market position and differentiated products.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	0.46%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	99.54%
Equity Cost	8.68%
WACC	8.66%
Leverage	0.46%

11. Quality Control: SIGA Technologies, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

SIGA Technologies

A-Score: 7.7/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 9.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Esperion Therapeutics

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

ANI Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Collegium Pharmaceutical

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 8.7

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Aquestive Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Evolus

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-8.89%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

8.66%

SIGA Technologies, Inc. - US8269171067

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on SIGA

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Better Quality

Strong Momentum

Revenues Miss

Higher Growth

Stable Momentum

Weak Momentum

Average Growth

2. SIGA's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Growing Demand for TPOXX

Operational Highlights

Financial Strength and Flexibility

Valuation and Outlook

Risk Factors and Government Dependence

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (9.27%)

6. Segments

Pharmaceutical

Expected Growth: 9.27%

7. Detailed Products

SIGA-246

ST-246

Tecovirimat

SIGA-988

8. SIGA Technologies, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: SIGA Technologies, Inc. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.18$

Current Price

6.18$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA