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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Spectral AI, Inc.operates as an artificial intelligence (AI) company.The company focuses on medical diagnostics for faster and accurate treatment decisions in wound care with applications involving patients with burns and diabetic foot ulcers.


Its products include DeepView, a predictive diagnostic device that offers clinicians an objective and immediate assessment of a wound's healing potential prior to treatment or other medical intervention.The company is based in Dallas, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on MDAI

Spectral AI's recent performance was negatively impacted by the company's Q4 2024 earnings release, which revealed a 2024 Research & Development Revenue of $30 Million, indicating a significant investment in R&D, but also a potential strain on the company's financial resources. The lack of clear guidance on the company's commercialization efforts and the timing of its U.S. launch of the DeepView System also contributed to the negative sentiment. Furthermore, the company's decision to spin off its subsidiary, Spectral IP, Inc., through an initial public offering may have created uncertainty among investors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Spectral AI Delivers Strong Q1 2025 Results with Improved Financial Health and Regulatory Progress

Spectral AI, Inc. reported a robust first-quarter 2025 performance, marked by improving financial health and significant progress toward its key regulatory and operational milestones. The company generated $6.7 million in research and development revenue for the quarter, with a gross margin of 47.2%. General and administrative expenses were tightly controlled at $4.1 million, contributing to a net income of $2.9 million. This compares favorably to analyst estimates, as the company reported an EPS of -$0.06, outperforming the expected -$0.13. The improved profitability was further bolstered by a $4.4 million decrease in the fair value of its warrant liability. With a cash runway now extending through its key growth initiatives, Spectral AI appears well-positioned to execute on its strategic objectives.

Publication Date: May -15

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Financial Position: Secured $15M in debt and $2.7M in equity, increasing cash reserves to $14.1M with a reduced burn rate.
  • FDA Submission Progress: On track to submit FDA De Novo classification by Q2 2025, supported by successful Burn Validation Study results.
  • Revenue Growth: Reported Q1 2025 R&D revenue of $6.7M with a 47.2% gross margin, maintaining 2025 revenue guidance of $21.5M.
  • Net Income Improvement: Achieved net income of $2.9M, driven by a $4.4M decrease in warrant liability fair value.
  • Product Development: Advanced DeepView Snapshot M prototypes and MTEC development, with progress toward industrial design and environmental testing.

Operational Highlights and Regulatory Progress

The company made significant strides in its product development and regulatory submissions. Spectral AI remains on track to submit its FDA De Novo classification by the end of Q2 2025, supported by promising results from its Burn Validation Study. The study highlighted the DeepView System's superior performance in predicting burn wound healing, a critical factor for regulatory approval. Additionally, the company advanced its MTEC development, assembling two functional prototypes of the DeepView Snapshot M handheld device and progressing toward industrial design and environmental testing. Management emphasized its focus on operational efficiencies and preparing for future commercialization efforts, particularly under the PBS BARDA contract.

Valuation Analysis

From a valuation perspective, Spectral AI's current trading multiples reflect the market's optimism about its growth prospects. The company's P/S ratio of 1.13 indicates a reasonable valuation relative to its revenue growth expectations, with analysts forecasting a 49.4% year-over-year revenue increase in 2026. However, the negative P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios highlight the market's focus on future profitability rather than current earnings. The company's strong ROIC of 261.64% and ROE of 342.62% underscore its ability to generate returns from its investments, while a Net Debt/EBITDA of 0.04 suggests minimal leverage and a healthy balance sheet. As Spectral AI progresses toward FDA approval and commercialization, these metrics will be critical in assessing whether the company can justify its current valuation.

3. NewsRoom

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DeepView™ System Featured at 2025 US Burn Conferences

Nov -19

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Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -11

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Spectral AI Announces 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results

Nov -11

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Spectral AI Schedules 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results and Conference Call

Oct -28

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Spectral AI raises $7.6 Million of Additional Growth Capital

Oct -23

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Spectral AI Named to TIME's List of World's Top HealthTech Companies 2025

Sep -19

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DeepView® System highlighted at the European Burns Association Congress

Sep -10

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Spectral AI, Inc. (MDAI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -13

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.25%)

6. Segments

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority

Expected Growth: 10.27%

BARDA's 10.27% growth is driven by increasing government funding for biomedical research, rising demand for advanced medical countermeasures, and strategic partnerships with private companies like Spectral AI, Inc. to accelerate innovation in infectious disease treatment and vaccine development.

Other U.S. Governmental Authorities

Expected Growth: 9.9%

Strong demand for government services, increasing federal spending, and growing need for digital transformation in the public sector drive growth for Other U.S. Governmental Authorities. Additionally, investments in infrastructure, cybersecurity, and data analytics also contribute to the 9.9% growth rate.

7. Detailed Products

Spectral NLP

A natural language processing platform that enables businesses to extract insights and meaning from unstructured text data.

Spectral Computer Vision

A computer vision platform that enables businesses to extract insights and meaning from visual data.

Spectral Predictive Maintenance

A predictive maintenance platform that enables businesses to predict equipment failures and reduce downtime.

Spectral Recommendation Engine

A recommendation engine that enables businesses to provide personalized recommendations to customers.

Spectral Chatbots

A chatbot platform that enables businesses to automate customer support and engagement.

8. Spectral AI, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Spectral AI, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative AI solutions in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the presence of large enterprises that can negotiate prices and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the availability of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is medium due to the presence of barriers to entry, such as high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of established players and new entrants in the AI market.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight -306.90%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 406.90%
Equity Cost 7.00%
WACC 16.36%
Leverage -75.42%

11. Quality Control: Spectral AI, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Spectral AI

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Outset Medical

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Asensus Surgical

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
PAVmed

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 5.4

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Strata Skin Sciences

A-Score: 2.5/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Pacific Biosciences

A-Score: 2.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.65$

Current Price

1.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows