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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Spire Global, Inc.develops a hardware and intelligent analytics platform that tracks the oceans, skies, and weather.It serves maritime, weather, aviation, space services, earth intelligence, and federal industries.


Spire Global, Inc.has a strategic partnership with TAC Index Limited.Spire Global, Inc.


was formerly known as Nanosatisfi, Inc.and changed its name to Spire Global, Inc.in July 2014.


The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California with additional offices in Boulder, Colorado; Washington, D.C.; Glasgow, United Kingdom; Luxembourg; and Singapore.

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1.b. Last Insights on SPIR

Spire Global's recent performance was driven by a successful launch of 11 satellites on SpaceX's Transporter-15 mission, expanding its customer base and strengthening its dual-use constellation. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted a year-over-year decrease in revenue primarily associated with the sale of its maritime business, but management expects normalization and a pivot to core data and analytics services. Additionally, Spire Global targets over 30% revenue growth in 2026, leveraging strong government and commercial contract momentum and a robust $200M backlog. The company's strengthened balance sheet, with $96.8M in cash and no debt, aims for EBITDA and cash flow breakeven by 4Q26.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Spire Global's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Challenging Quarter, But Growth Ahead

Spire Global reported revenue of $12.7 million for Q3 2025, a decline primarily due to the absence of $11.5 million in maritime revenue and $6-8 million in revenue timing impacts. The non-GAAP operating loss was $13.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA was $11.8 million. The actual EPS came out at '-0.33', in line with estimates. The company's financial performance was impacted by the government shutdown, which delayed certain contract signings and revenue recognition.

Publication Date: Dec -23

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 2025 Revenue Decline:: Revenue dropped to $12.7 million, primarily due to $11.5 million lost maritime revenue and $6-8 million timing impacts.
  • 2026 Revenue Growth Outlook:: Anticipates >30% growth driven by $200+ million backlog, $70 million RPO, and contracts like the $40B German space defense budget.
  • Non-GAAP Operating Loss:: 2025 guidance of $54.7-53.8 million loss, reflecting $6-8 million impacts from contract timing and government shutdown delays.
  • Efficiency Gains:: Doubled production output without added cost via lean manufacturing and design-for-manufacturability improvements.

Revenue Guidance and Backlog

Spire expects 2025 revenue of $70.5-72.5 million and a non-GAAP operating loss of $54.7-53.8 million. The company's backlog is over $200 million, with $70 million expected to be recognized in 2026. The remaining performance obligations (RPO) for next year stand at over $70 million, a significant portion of its growth. Spire anticipates greater than 30% revenue growth in 2026, driven by contracts already secured, expanding backlog, and increased on-orbit capacity.

Contract Wins and Growth Drivers

Recent contract wins include a significant allocation from the $40 billion German space defense budget, a $151 billion US government ShIELD IDIQ contract, and a large radio application contract from NOAA. The company's commercial business is growing at a double-digit rate year-over-year, driven by weather and aviation segments. Spire's growth in 2026 is expected to be driven by government contracts, including weather programs, space services, and radio frequency mapping.

Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow

The company has achieved significant efficiency gains through design for manufacturability and lean principles, doubling production on the same headcount without added cost. Spire expects to be operating cash flow positive by the end of 2026, with a lower CapEx profile in preliminary 2026 planning. The cash balance is expected to remain strong, with approximately $100 million exiting this year.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 3.8 and EV/EBITDA of 3.81, the market appears to be pricing in some level of growth. However, analysts' estimates suggest a revenue growth of -2.0% for next year, indicating some skepticism. The company's ROE is 44.29%, while the ROIC is -55.06%, indicating room for improvement in capital allocation. As Spire continues to execute on its contracts and drive growth, the stock may present opportunities for investors.

3. NewsRoom

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Why the SpaceX IPO Will Be Good, Bad, and Ugly for Other Space Stocks

Feb -15

Source: fool.com

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Will Spire Global Have a Better 2026?

Feb -12

Source: fool.com

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Comparing Spire Global (NYSE:SPIR) & Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL)

Feb -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Spire Global Selected by AiDASH to Bring Space-Powered Weather Intelligence to Vegetation Risk Platform for Electric Utilities

Jan -22

Source: businesswire.com

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Spire Global Expands National Security and Policy Advisory Capabilities with Appointments of Admiral Christopher W. Grady and Edward J.

Jan -21

Source: businesswire.com

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Space AI in 2026: Why Wall Street Is Betting on Orbital Data Centers

Jan -17

Source: investorplace.com

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Spire Global: Undervalued, Seems Geared For 2026 Growth Strategy

Jan -16

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Spire Global Successfully Launches 9 Satellites on SpaceX's Twilight Mission

Jan -12

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (14.53%)

6. Segments

Subscription-based Contracts

Expected Growth: 16%

Spire Global, Inc.'s subscription-based contracts exhibit 16% growth driven by increasing demand for satellite-based data analytics, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's unique constellation of nanosatellites provides unparalleled global coverage, fueling growth in IoT, maritime, and weather monitoring applications.

Non-subscription-based Contracts

Expected Growth: 12%

Spire Global's non-subscription-based contracts growth is driven by increasing demand for one-time Earth observation data and analytics services from government agencies, NGOs, and commercial customers. This growth is also fueled by the company's expanding partner network, strategic acquisitions, and investments in new product development, enabling Spire to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the space technology industry.

7. Detailed Products

Spire Sense

A suite of APIs that provide access to Spire's satellite data, enabling developers to build custom applications and integrate satellite data into their workflows.

Spire Maritime

A platform that provides real-time vessel tracking, maritime analytics, and insights to improve operational efficiency and reduce risk.

Spire Aviation

A solution that provides real-time flight tracking, aircraft performance monitoring, and predictive analytics to improve aviation safety and efficiency.

Spire Weather

A platform that provides hyperlocal weather forecasts, climate monitoring, and severe weather alerts to support critical decision-making.

Spire Earth

A platform that provides satellite-based earth observation data and analytics to support environmental monitoring, natural resource management, and climate research.

8. Spire Global, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Spire Global, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for its satellite-based data and analytics services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Spire Global, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Spire Global, Inc. relies on a few key suppliers for its satellite components and launch services, giving them moderate bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The satellite industry has high barriers to entry, but new entrants with innovative technologies and business models could still pose a significant threat to Spire Global, Inc.'s market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The satellite industry is highly competitive, with several established players and new entrants vying for market share, leading to intense rivalry among companies like Spire Global, Inc.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.51%
Debt Cost 14.13%
Equity Weight 37.49%
Equity Cost 14.13%
WACC 14.13%
Leverage 166.75%

11. Quality Control: Spire Global, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Viad

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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QuadGraphics

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Odyssey Marine Exploration

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 0.3

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DLH

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Kodak

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Spire Global

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

9.21$

Current Price

9.21$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows