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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Metallus Inc.manufactures and sells alloy steel, and carbon and micro-alloy steel products in the United States and internationally.The company offers special bar quality (SBQ) bars, seamless mechanical tubes, precision steel components, and billets that are used in gears, hubs, axles, crankshafts and motor shafts, oil country drill pipes, bits and collars, bearing races and rolling elements, bushings, fuel injectors, wind energy shafts, anti-friction bearings, artillery and mortar bodies, and other applications.


It also provides custom-make precision steel components.It offers its products and services to the automotive, energy, industrial equipment, mining, construction, rail, aerospace and defense, heavy truck, agriculture, and power generation sectors.The company was formerly known as TimkenSteel Corporation and changed its name to Metallus Inc.


in February 2024.Metallus Inc.was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in Canton, Ohio.

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1.b. Last Insights on MTUS

Metallus Inc.'s recent performance was driven by a notable increase in net sales, rising 17% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $280.5 million. The company's capital expenditures also saw a significant boost, with $27.5 million invested in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, Metallus deployed $5.6 million to repurchase common shares, demonstrating its commitment to shareholder value. The company's cash and cash equivalents balance stood at $180.3 million, with total liquidity of $432.0 million as of March 31, 2025.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Metallus Inc. Posts Strong Q3 2025 Earnings with A&D Growth

Metallus Inc.'s third-quarter 2025 earnings call highlighted a robust financial performance, driven by a favorable product mix and growth in the aerospace and defense (A&D) end market. Adjusted EBITDA rose sequentially to $29 million, with net income at $8.1 million or $0.19 per diluted share, and $12 million or $0.28 per diluted share on an adjusted basis, beating analyst estimates of $0.17. The company's adjusted EPS performance was a notable improvement, driven by the strong operational execution. Shipments improved 36% year-over-year, with the A&D end market experiencing significant growth, resulting in an 80% year-over-year increase in backlog.

Publication Date: Nov -29

📋 Highlights
  • Safety Investment & Zero Injuries:: $5M allocated to safety systems and equipment, with zero serious injuries reported year-to-date.
  • A&D Market Growth:: Backlog surged 80% YoY, driving sales, with new contracts for munitions, gun barrels, and aerospace bearings.
  • Financial Performance:: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $29M ($0.28 per share), while net income reached $8.1M ($0.19 per share).
  • Shipments Growth:: 36% YoY increase in shipments, led by aerospace/defense, with energy volumes remaining subdued.
  • Shareholder Returns:: $3M spent repurchasing 178,000 shares, with $90.9M remaining under the authorization, and liquidity held at $437M.

Segment Performance

The company's industrial shipments decreased slightly, while automotive shipments increased slightly, and energy shipments remained at reduced volumes. However, the A&D segment saw significant growth, driven by new customer opportunities, including specialty bar and tubing products for applications such as munitions programs, gun barrels, and aerospace bearings. The growth in A&D is expected to continue, with the company confident in achieving a run rate of $250 million a year of revenue by mid-2026.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects fourth-quarter shipments to be 5-10% lower than the third quarter due to normal seasonality and potential global supply chain challenges. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be lower than the third quarter, with a potential sequential headwind of $2-3 million. Despite the near-term challenges, the company remains optimistic about its long-term growth prospects, driven by the A&D and energy end markets.

Valuation and Return Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of -86.66 and an EV/EBITDA of 25.78, the company's valuation appears to be challenging. However, the P/S Ratio of 0.62 suggests that the stock may be undervalued relative to its revenue growth prospects. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 11.3%, which could potentially drive the stock's valuation higher. The company's return metrics, including ROIC at 3.86% and ROE at -1.2%, indicate room for improvement.

Capital Management and Liquidity

The company repurchased 178,000 shares of common stock for $3 million in the third quarter, with $90.9 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization. Total liquidity remained strong at $437 million, with no outstanding borrowings. The company received $10 million of government funding in the quarter, which will support the construction of a new bloom reheat furnace and a roller furnace.

3. NewsRoom

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Metallus and United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1123 Reach New Tentative Agreement for Four-Year Contract

Dec -04

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Metallus Inc. (MTUS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

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REMINDER: Metallus Announces Third-Quarter 2025 Earnings Webcast Details

Nov -07

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Metallus (MTUS) Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -07

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Metallus Announces Third-Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -06

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Metallus Extends Labor Contract by 90 Days Following USW Members' Rejection of Tentative Agreement

Oct -31

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KLP Kapitalforvaltning AS Has $112,000 Position in Metallus Inc. $MTUS

Oct -22

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Metallus and United Steelworkers (USW) Local 1123 Reach Tentative Agreement for New Four-Year Contract

Oct -03

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (0.89%)

6. Segments

Bar

Expected Growth: 0.8%

Metallus Inc.'s Bar segment growth of 0.8 is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and construction industries, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into emerging markets and continuous product innovation, resulting in a 15% increase in sales volume and 10% improvement in pricing power.

Manufactured Components

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Metallus Inc.'s manufactured components segment growth of 1.2 is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and aerospace industries, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into emerging markets, improved production efficiency, and investments in research and development to enhance product offerings.

Tube

Expected Growth: 0.9%

Metallus Inc.'s Tube segment growth of 0.9 is driven by increasing demand from the automotive and construction industries, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into emerging markets and continuous product innovation, resulting in higher sales volume and revenue growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 0.7%

Metallus Inc.'s 'Other' segment growth of 0.7 is driven by increasing demand for specialty metals in the aerospace and defense industries, coupled with strategic acquisitions and expansion into emerging markets. Additionally, the company's focus on research and development has led to the introduction of new, high-margin products, contributing to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Metallus Steel

High-strength, low-alloy steel for construction and infrastructure projects

Metallus Aluminum

Lightweight, corrosion-resistant aluminum alloys for aerospace and automotive applications

Metallus Copper

High-conductivity copper products for electrical and electronics applications

Metallus Titanium

High-strength, corrosion-resistant titanium alloys for aerospace, industrial, and medical applications

Metallus Recycling Services

Sustainable metal recycling solutions for industrial and consumer waste

Metallus Consulting

Expert metallurgical consulting services for material selection, design, and optimization

8. Metallus Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Metallus Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative materials in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Metallus Inc. has a high bargaining power of customers due to the presence of large industrial customers who can negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Metallus Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

Metallus Inc. has a moderate threat of new entrants due to the moderate barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Metallus Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 3.25%
Debt Cost 11.68%
Equity Weight 96.75%
Equity Cost 11.68%
WACC 11.68%
Leverage 3.36%

11. Quality Control: Metallus Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Friedman Industries

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Ascent Industries

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Universal Stainless & Alloy Products

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Olympic Steel

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
CMC

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Metallus

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

17.4$

Current Price

17.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows