Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vaxart, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, engages in the discovery and development of oral recombinant protein vaccines based on its proprietary oral vaccine platform.The company's product pipeline includes norovirus vaccine, an oral tablet vaccine, which is in a Phase Ib clinical trial with bivalent oral tablet vaccine for the GI.1 and GII.4 norovirus strains; seasonal influenza vaccine, which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of H1 influenza infection; respiratory syncytial virus vaccine; and coronavirus vaccine, which is in Phase II clinical trial for the treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.It is also developing therapeutic vaccines for cervical cancer and dysplasia caused by human papillomavirus.

The company is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on VXRT

Vaxart's recent performance has been driven by several positive developments. The company has received approval from BARDA to initiate dosing in the 10,000-participant portion of its Phase 2b COVID-19 trial, which will assess the relative efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of its oral pill COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Additionally, Vaxart has initiated dosing in this trial, marking a significant milestone in its development pipeline. The company has also announced that it will release topline data from its Phase I norovirus trial on June 11, 2025, and will host a conference call to review the data and provide a trial update. Furthermore, Vaxart's management team will participate in a fireside chat at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference on June 5, 2025, providing an opportunity for investors to engage with the company's leadership.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	0.36
Change Percentage	-1.10%
Open	0.36
Previous Close	0.36
Market Cap ( Millions)	87
Volume	8198
Year High	0.98
Year Low	0.26
M A 50	0.36
M A 200	0.41

FCF Yield	-35.17%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-123.53%
Debt / Equity	57.72%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	4.35%
Price To Book	3.09
Price Earnings Ratio	-1.63
Price To FCF	-2.84
Price To sales	0.58
EV / EBITDA	-2.58

2. Vaxart's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at Financials and Pipeline Progress

Vaxart reported revenue of $72.4 million for Q3 2025, primarily driven by the BARDA contract, a significant increase that highlights the company's progress in its COVID-19 vaccine development. The actual EPS came out at -$0.04, beating estimates of -$0.07, indicating better cost management. The company's cash, cash equivalents, and investments stood at $28.8 million at the end of Q3, a level that, combined with the recent $25 million upfront license fee and $5 million equity investment from Dynavax, extends Vaxart's cash runway into the second quarter of 2027.

Publication Date: Nov -30

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Partnership Revenue & Milestones::
                                                $25M upfront fee and $5M equity from Dynavax, with up to $700M in potential fees and royalties.
Cash Runway Extension::
                                                Partnership extends Vaxart’s cash runway to Q2 2027, with Q3 2025 ending at $28.8M cash and investments.
Norovirus Phase I Results::
                                                25-fold increase in GII.4 fecal IgA and 10-fold in GI.1 IgA, with 2026 trial pending funding.
Q3 2025 Revenue::
                                                $72.4M primarily from BARDA contract, highlighting reliance on partnerships for funding.
Dynavax’s Vaccine Advantages::
                                                Demonstrated cross-strain efficacy and reduced transmission in animal models, targeting a 12-month protection window.

                                

Partnership and Pipeline Updates

The partnership with Dynavax not only provides financial stability but also leverages Dynavax's clinical manufacturing capabilities, potentially enhancing Vaxart's COVID-19 oral pill vaccine candidate's production. Vaxart remains on track to announce multiple datasets in 2026, a critical year for the company as it progresses towards potential commercialization. Additionally, the norovirus program has shown promising Phase I top-line results, with significant increases in fecal IgA response, positioning it for the next clinical trial pending funding.

Valuation Metrics and Future Outlook

Analysts estimate a revenue growth of -58.5% for next year, indicating a challenging period ahead. Given the current valuation metrics, with a P/S Ratio of 0.6 and an EV/EBITDA of -2.65, the market seems to have priced in significant challenges. The ROE and ROIC, both negative, reflect the current operational dynamics. As Vaxart continues to seek strategic partnerships and manage expenses, the success of its vaccine candidates and the norovirus program will be crucial in determining its future financial health and, consequently, its stock performance.

Dynavax's Contribution and Market Potential

Dynavax's manufacturing capabilities and Vaxart's oral pill vaccine candidate together offer a compelling proposition, with cross-reactivity across various strains and the potential to reduce virus transmission. The partnership could unlock significant value if these advantages translate into market success, potentially capturing a sizable share of the COVID-19 vaccine market despite current challenges in vaccination rates.

3. NewsRoom

Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) Shareholder/Analyst Call Transcript

Nov -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -14

Source: seekingalpha.com

Vaxart to Host Upcoming Conference Calls

Nov -07

Source: globenewswire.com

Dynavax Reports Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results and Announces New $100 Million Share Repurchase Program

Nov -05

Source: prnewswire.com

Dynavax Enters Exclusive License Agreement for Vaxart's Novel Oral COVID-19 Vaccine Program

Nov -05

Source: prnewswire.com

Vaxart to Showcase its Norovirus and COVID-19 Oral Pill Vaccine Candidates at World Vaccine Congress Europe 2025

Oct -08

Source: globenewswire.com

Vaxart Appoints W. Mark Watson as Lead Independent Director

Sep -17

Source: globenewswire.com

Vaxart Reports Additional Phase 1 Data Supporting the Potential Efficacy of its Second-Generation Norovirus Oral Pill Vaccine Candidate

Sep -10

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.47%)

6. Segments

Oral Recombinant Protein Vaccines

Expected Growth: 10.47%

Vaxart's oral recombinant protein vaccines' 10.47% growth is driven by increasing demand for convenient, cost-effective, and scalable vaccine solutions. Growing awareness of infectious diseases, advancements in recombinant protein technology, and partnerships with governments and NGOs for vaccine development and distribution are key growth drivers.

7. Detailed Products

VXA-CoV2-1

An oral tablet vaccine candidate for COVID-19, designed to provide mucosal immunity and protect against SARS-CoV-2

VXA-NRV

An oral tablet vaccine candidate for norovirus, designed to provide mucosal immunity and protect against norovirus infection

VXA-HPV

An oral tablet vaccine candidate for human papillomavirus (HPV), designed to provide mucosal immunity and protect against HPV-related diseases

VXA-RSV

An oral tablet vaccine candidate for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), designed to provide mucosal immunity and protect against RSV infection

VXA-IGAN

An oral tablet vaccine candidate for influenza, designed to provide mucosal immunity and protect against seasonal and pandemic influenza

8. Vaxart, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vaxart's oral tablet vaccine has a unique mechanism of action, but there are other vaccine technologies available, making substitutes a moderate threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vaxart's customers are primarily governments and healthcare organizations, which have limited bargaining power due to the specialized nature of the vaccine market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vaxart relies on a few key suppliers for its vaccine components, giving them some bargaining power, but the company's specialized requirements limit the suppliers' negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The vaccine market is highly competitive, and new entrants can easily disrupt the market with innovative technologies, making the threat of new entrants high.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The vaccine market is highly competitive, with many established players, making the intensity of rivalry high.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	13.64%
Debt Cost	5.44%
Equity Weight	86.36%
Equity Cost	7.54%
WACC	7.25%
Leverage	15.79%

11. Quality Control: Vaxart, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Mirum Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Entrada Therapeutics

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Karyopharm Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Spyre Therapeutics

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Vaxart

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Palisade Bio

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

14.43%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.25%

Vaxart, Inc. - US92243A2006

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on VXRT

1.c. Company Highlights

Weak Momentum

Average Quality

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Average Growth

Earnings Miss

Stable Momentum

Revenues Miss

Fairly Valued

Lower Quality

2. Vaxart's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at Financials and Pipeline Progress

Partnership and Pipeline Updates

Valuation Metrics and Future Outlook

Dynavax's Contribution and Market Potential

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.47%)

6. Segments

Oral Recombinant Protein Vaccines

Expected Growth: 10.47%

7. Detailed Products

VXA-CoV2-1

VXA-NRV

VXA-HPV

VXA-RSV

VXA-IGAN

8. Vaxart, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Vaxart, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.36$

Current Price

0.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA