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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

XPEL, Inc.manufactures, sells, distributes, and installs after-market automotive products.The company offers automotive surface and paint protection films, headlight protection, and automotive and architectural window films, as well as proprietary software.


It also provides merchandise and apparel; ceramic coatings; and tools and accessories, which includes squeegees and microfiber towels, application fluids, plotter cutters, knives, and other products.In addition, the company offers paint protection kits, car wash products, after-care products, and installation tools through its website.It sells its products to independent installers and new car dealerships, third-party distributors, and company-owned installation centers, as well as through franchisees and online sales channels.


The company serves in the United States, China, Canada, Continental Europe, the United Kingdom, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the Middle East/Africa, and internationally.XPEL, Inc.was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

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1.b. Last Insights on XPEL

Recent negative drivers behind XPEL, Inc.'s performance include a weak revenue growth of 1.9% in Q4 2024, partly due to China impacts, and a foreign exchange loss of $1.2 million. Excluding China, revenue growth was 10.5%, but this was not enough to offset the negative impacts. The company's gross margin of 40.6% in Q4 2024 was also a concern. Additionally, the company's reliance on a few key customers, such as Rivian, may pose a risk to its revenue growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. XPEL's Q4 2025 Earnings: A Strong Finish to a Year of Expansion

XPEL Inc. reported a robust Q4 2025, with revenue growing 13.7% and EBITDA increasing 37.6% year-over-year. The company's U.S. region saw revenue growth of 11%, while Europe reported a 26.8% increase. Gross margin stood at 41.9%, relatively flat compared to Q3, as the company managed price increases and sold through acquired inventory. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.48, beating estimates. Revenue for the quarter was strong, driven by the company's diversified product line, with window film and insulation revenue growing 10% and 17.2% respectively.

Publication Date: Mar -09

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 Revenue and EBITDA Growth: Revenue grew 13.7% to $112-114M in Q1 2026 guidance, with EBITDA surging 37.6% to $19.6M in Q4 2025.
  • Regional Performance: Europe saw 26.8% revenue growth in Q4, while Canada declined; U.S. revenue rose 11%.
  • Gross Margin Stability: Maintained 41.9% gross margin in Q4, despite challenges from China inventory and price increases.
  • EBITDA Margin: EBITDA margin held steady at 16% in Q4, flat compared to Q3 despite lower sequential revenue.
  • Annual Product Line Growth: Window film revenue increased 21.7% YoY, insulation revenue rose 17.2%, driven by strong corporate stores and aftermarket demand.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was a highlight, with corporate stores, dealership service business, and aftermarket all reporting growth. However, Canada saw a revenue decline. The company's investments in manufacturing and supply chain are expected to drive future growth. As Ryan Pape noted, "We're excited about our prospects for growth in every part of our channel, in every customer type, in every geography."

Guidance and Outlook

XPEL guided Q1 2026 revenue to be in the range of $112 million to $114 million, assuming ongoing U.S. trend and softness in Canada. The company expects to leverage its costs, with a focus on growing its customer base and increasing operational efficiency. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 12% for the next year, driven by the company's expanding product line and geographic presence.

Valuation and Metrics

XPEL's valuation metrics indicate a strong performance. The stock trades at a P/E Ratio of 21.83, P/B Ratio of 3.99, and EV/EBITDA of 13.65. The company's return on equity (ROE) stands at 19.69%, indicating efficient use of shareholder capital. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 5.59%, XPEL appears to be generating significant cash from its operations. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is -0.35, indicating a net cash position.

Margins and Expenses

XPEL's gross margin is expected to abate some of the headwinds, with the company anticipating gross margins at or above previous highs in Q2. Operating expenses are being managed, with corporate SG&A being "wrangled better" as per Ryan Pape. The company's effective tax rate is expected to be around 21% going forward.

3. NewsRoom

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Sells 30,933 Shares of XPEL, Inc. $XPEL

Apr -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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XPEL: Why This Stock Could Deliver Strong Upside

Apr -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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XPEL Protects All-New Jeep® Gladiator “Shadow Ops” Special Edition for 2026 Easter Jeep Safari

Mar -31

Source: businesswire.com

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XPEL, Inc. (XPEL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -25

Source: seekingalpha.com

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XPEL Reports Revenue Growth of 13.7% to $122.3 million, EBITDA Growth of 37.6% to $19.6 million in Fourth Quarter 2025

Feb -25

Source: businesswire.com

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Alta Fox Boosts XPEL Stake to 15.5% of Portfolio With $58 Million Bet Last Quarter

Feb -16

Source: fool.com

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XPEL, Inc. to Host Conference Call to Discuss Fourth Quarter and Year End 2025 Results

Feb -11

Source: businesswire.com

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New Dealership Survey Finds Paint Protection Film (PPF) Can Add up to 15% to a Vehicle's Resale Value

Jan -28

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.87%)

6. Segments

Paint Protection Film

Expected Growth: 7%

Increasing adoption of luxury vehicles, growing demand for paint protection solutions, expanding dealership network, and rising consumer awareness of XPEL's premium products drive the 7% growth of Paint Protection Film segment. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, innovative products, and strong brand reputation contribute to its market leadership and growth momentum.

Window Film

Expected Growth: 5%

XPEL's Window Film segment growth is driven by increasing demand for premium automotive products, expanding distribution channels, and rising adoption in emerging markets. Additionally, the company's focus on innovative products, such as ceramic and color-stable films, and strategic partnerships with OEMs and dealerships contribute to its 5% growth.

Installation Labor

Expected Growth: 4%

XPEL's Installation Labor growth is driven by increasing adoption of paint protection films, expanding dealership network, and rising demand for premium vehicle protection services. Additionally, strategic partnerships, geographic expansion, and investments in digital marketing and training programs contribute to the growth.

Cutbank Credits

Expected Growth: 3%

Cutbank Credits from XPEL, Inc. exhibits 3% growth driven by increasing adoption of paint protection films, expanding dealership network, and rising demand for premium automotive services. Additionally, strategic partnerships, innovative product offerings, and effective marketing strategies contribute to the growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 2%

XPEL's growth is driven by increasing adoption of paint protection films, expanding distribution network, and rising demand for automotive accessories. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, innovative products, and growing online presence contribute to its growth momentum.

Software

Expected Growth: 8%

XPEL's software growth is driven by increasing adoption of paint protection films and window tints in the automotive industry, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, customer experience, and digital transformation also contribute to its growth.

Training and Other

Expected Growth: 6%

XPEL's 6% growth in Training and Other is driven by increasing demand for advanced installation training, expansion of XPEL University, and growing adoption of digital training platforms. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and collaborations have led to increased revenue from certification programs and consulting services.

7. Detailed Products

Paint Protection Films

A clear, thin, and virtually invisible film that protects a vehicle's paint from damage caused by road debris, UV rays, and everyday wear and tear.

Window Films

A range of window tinting solutions that provide heat rejection, glare reduction, and UV protection for vehicles.

Ceramic Coatings

A protective coating that creates an impenetrable barrier against the elements, providing long-term protection for a vehicle's paint and interior surfaces.

Headlight Protection Films

A clear, protective film that shields headlights from damage caused by road debris, UV rays, and everyday wear and tear.

Interior Protection Films

A range of protective films designed to shield interior surfaces from spills, stains, and wear and tear.

DAP (Design Access Program) Software

A proprietary software solution that enables dealerships and installers to design, estimate, and manage paint protection film installations.

8. XPEL, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

XPEL, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of alternative paint protection films and coatings in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

XPEL, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to its strong brand presence and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

XPEL, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but still has some dependence on key suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

XPEL, Inc. has a high threat of new entrants due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the paint protection film industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

XPEL, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with several established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 11.48%
Debt Cost 4.33%
Equity Weight 88.52%
Equity Cost 12.75%
WACC 11.78%
Leverage 12.97%

11. Quality Control: XPEL, Inc. passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
XPEL

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Gentherm

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.7

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Stoneridge

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Fox Factory

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Superior Industries International

A-Score: 3.2/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Commercial Vehicle Group

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

46.21$

Current Price

46.21$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows