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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Xcel Energy Inc., through its subsidiaries, generates, purchases, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity.It operates through Regulated Electric Utility, Regulated Natural Gas Utility, and All Other segments.The company generates electricity through coal, nuclear, natural gas, hydroelectric, solar, biomass, oil, wood/refuse, and wind energy sources.


It also purchases, transports, distributes, and sells natural gas to retail customers, as well as transports customer-owned natural gas.In addition, the company develops and leases natural gas pipelines, and storage and compression facilities; and invests in rental housing projects, as well as procures equipment for the construction of renewable generation facilities.It serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers in the portions of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, and Wisconsin.


The company sells electricity to approximately 3.7 million customers; and natural gas to approximately 2.1 million customers.Xcel Energy Inc.was incorporated in 1909 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

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1.b. Last Insights on XEL

Xcel Energy's recent performance is driven by strategic investments and customer growth. The company has invested $45 billion to boost reliability and clean power, benefiting from rising demand and data center growth. Its Q2 earnings beat estimates, with a quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share, driven by increased recovery of infrastructure investments. Additionally, Xcel Energy has reached agreements to resolve all litigation related to the 2021 Marshall Fire, reducing legal risks. The company's strong infrastructure recovery and customer growth position it to capitalize on AI-driven data center demand, supporting 8% EPS growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Xcel Energy's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Xcel Energy reported a GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $0.88 for the third quarter of 2025, while ongoing earnings, which exclude a $0.36 per share charge related to the Marshall wildfire settlement, were $1.24 per share. This compares to an estimated EPS of $1.32, indicating a slight miss. Revenue growth is expected to be around 7.1% next year, according to analysts' estimates. The company's financial performance was solid, with ongoing EPS growth driven by investments in resilient and reliable energy infrastructure.

Publication Date: Nov -01

📋 Highlights
  • Q3 2025 Earnings Impact:: $290M wildfire settlement charge reduced GAAP EPS to $0.88/share, while ongoing EPS remained at $1.24/share.
  • 2026 Earnings Guidance:: Initiated $4.04–$4.16/share, reflecting 8% midpoint growth from 2025’s $3.75–$3.85/share range.
  • Capital Investment Plan:: $3B Q3 investment and $8B YTD 2025, with $60B in 5-year infrastructure projects driving 9% average EPS growth through 2030.
  • Financing Strategy:: 40% equity, 60% debt for incremental capital, targeting 16–17% FFO-to-debt ratio amid elevated CapEx pressures.
  • Renewables and Transmission:: $4.5B Colorado renewable procurement portfolio and leadership in transmission line development, including data center interconnections.

Financial Performance

The company's ongoing earnings of $1.24 per share were slightly lower than the $1.25 per share reported in the same quarter last year. Xcel Energy reaffirmed its 2025 ongoing earnings guidance range of $3.75 to $3.85 per share and initiated 2026 earnings guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 per share, representing approximately 8% growth from the midpoint of the 2025 guidance. The company's investment in energy infrastructure has been significant, with over $3 billion invested in the third quarter and $8 billion year-to-date.

Growth Prospects and Capital Plan

Xcel Energy updated its long-term EPS growth objective to 6-8% plus, with expectations to deliver 9% growth on average through 2030. The company's capital plan is significant, with $60 billion of infrastructure projects over the next five years. The company is also exploring additional opportunities, including a second RFP for SPP capacity and energy, and a just transition solicitation with 4-15 gigawatts of generation needs. As Brian Van Abel noted, the Colorado side is working to accelerate procurement for renewable resources given the tax credit cliff in 2030.

Valuation and Metrics

To understand what's priced into Xcel Energy's stock, we can look at various valuation metrics. The stock has a P/E Ratio of 33.65, P/B Ratio of 2.21, and P/S Ratio of 3.44. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 27.38, indicating a relatively high valuation. The Dividend Yield is 2.78%, which is a positive aspect for income investors. The company's ROE is 6.83%, and ROIC is 3.12%, indicating room for improvement in returns. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 15.82, the company's leverage is significant.

Outlook and Risks

The company's growth prospects are driven by its investment in energy infrastructure, including renewable resources. However, the company's leverage and capital plan are potential risks. The company's ability to execute on its capital plan and manage its balance sheet will be critical to its success. As Robert Frenzel noted, the company is focused on keeping bills affordable for customers while balancing other desires such as reliability, sustainability, and safety.

3. NewsRoom

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Touchstone Value Fund Q3 2025 Portfolio Update

Dec -03

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Avantax Advisory Services Inc. Buys 5,071 Shares of Xcel Energy Inc. $XEL

Nov -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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17 Capital Partners LLC Grows Holdings in Xcel Energy Inc. $XEL

Nov -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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ABN Amro Investment Solutions Takes Position in Xcel Energy Inc. $XEL

Nov -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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AE Wealth Management LLC Increases Stake in Xcel Energy Inc. $XEL

Nov -12

Source: defenseworld.net

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Alpha Cubed Investments LLC Increases Holdings in Xcel Energy Inc. $XEL

Nov -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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World Investment Advisors Has $462,000 Stock Holdings in Xcel Energy Inc. $XEL

Nov -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Xcel Energy Inc. (XEL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.46%)

6. Segments

Regulated Electric Utility

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Xcel Energy's growth is driven by increasing demand for electricity in Minnesota and Colorado, supported by the region's growing economy and population, as well as the company's investments in renewable energy and grid modernization.

Regulated Natural Gas Utility

Expected Growth: 4.3%

Growing demand for natural gas and increasing investment in infrastructure development are expected to drive the segment's growth, supported by Xcel Energy Inc.'s focus on expanding its natural gas distribution and transportation services.

Non Segment Revenues

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Xcel Energy’s non-regulated revenue growth is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy solutions, expansion of its energy storage business, and investments in grid modernization, leading to a forecast CAGR of 4.2%.

Eliminate Intersegment Revenue

Expected Growth: 5.6%

Xcel Energy's growth is driven by increasing demand for renewable energy, investments in grid modernization, and strategic acquisitions, positioning the company for long-term growth and profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Electricity

Xcel Energy provides electricity to residential, commercial, and industrial customers through its regulated utility operations.

Natural Gas

Xcel Energy delivers natural gas to customers through its regulated utility operations, providing a clean and efficient source of energy.

Renewable Energy

Xcel Energy offers renewable energy solutions, including wind and solar power, to customers seeking sustainable energy options.

Energy Efficiency

Xcel Energy provides energy-efficient solutions and programs to help customers reduce energy consumption and lower their energy bills.

Smart Grid

Xcel Energy's smart grid technology enables real-time energy monitoring, efficient energy distribution, and improved outage response.

Energy Storage

Xcel Energy offers energy storage solutions, including battery storage, to help customers manage energy usage and reduce peak demand.

8. Xcel Energy Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Xcel Energy Inc. operates in a regulated industry, which limits the threat of substitutes. However, the increasing adoption of renewable energy sources and energy storage technologies could pose a moderate threat to the company's traditional business model.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Xcel Energy Inc. serves a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, and industrial customers. While large industrial customers may have some bargaining power, the company's overall customer base is fragmented, limiting their bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Xcel Energy Inc. relies on a diverse range of suppliers for fuel, equipment, and services. While some suppliers may have bargaining power, the company's scale and diversification of suppliers mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The energy industry is highly regulated, and significant barriers to entry exist, including high capital requirements and complex regulatory frameworks. This limits the threat of new entrants to Xcel Energy Inc.'s business.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Xcel Energy Inc. operates in a competitive industry, with several large players vying for market share. However, the company's strong brand, diversified customer base, and operational efficiency help to mitigate the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 59.84%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 40.16%
Equity Cost 5.76%
WACC 4.68%
Leverage 149.01%

11. Quality Control: Xcel Energy Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
WEC Energy

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 10.0

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DTE Energy

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Exelon

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Xcel Energy

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Dominion Energy

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 9.7

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NextEra Energy

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

77.51$

Current Price

77.51$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows