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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally.The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, boxing, dancing, running, and functional training under the Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, Row House, YogaSix, Rumble, AKT, Stride, and BFT brands.As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios on an adjusted basis.


The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on XPOF

Xponential Fitness' recent performance was negatively impacted by concerns over its growth trajectory. Despite beating Q3 2025 earnings estimates with $0.34 per share, compared to a loss of $0.04 per share a year ago, investors are scrutinizing key metrics. The company's impressive quarterly results were overshadowed by a cautious outlook. With a focus on expanding its fitness empire, Xponential Fitness faces intense competition from industry players like Garmin, Planet Fitness, and Peloton Interactive. Its growth strategy and ability to maintain profitability will be closely monitored.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Xponential Fitness: A Mixed Bag in Q3 2025

Xponential Fitness reported a revenue of $78.8 million for the third quarter of 2025, down 2% from $80.5 million in the prior year period. The company's adjusted net income was $19.3 million, with an adjusted EPS of $0.36 per basic share, beating analyst estimates of $0.14. Adjusted EBITDA was $33.5 million, up 9% year-over-year, driven by increased margin from license terminations and increased royalties. The company's actual EPS came out at $0.34.

Publication Date: Nov -19

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline with Franchise Growth:: Q3 revenue fell 2% to $78.8M, but franchise revenue surged 17% to $51.9M, offsetting declines in equipment (-49%) and merchandise (-27%) sales.
  • Studio Expansion Momentum:: Ended Q3 with 3,066 global studios, adding 78 gross new studios and selling 49 licenses, driving 10% YoY growth in North America system-wide sales to $432.2M.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Growth:: Adjusted EBITDA rose 9% to $33.5M YoY, driven by higher royalties and margin from license terminations, despite revenue headwinds.
  • Marketing Campaign Investment:: $5M allocated for Club Pilates’ national brand campaign in Q4, expected to exceed marketing fund revenue, with plans to test new channels and refine pricing strategies.
  • Backlog and Cost-Saving Measures:: 40% of global licenses (around 1,000 studios) remain 12+ months behind development schedules, while $6M annualized SG&A savings from corporate workforce reductions.

Revenue Streams and Margin Analysis

Franchise revenue rose 17% year-over-year to $51.9 million, while equipment revenue was $7.5 million, down 49%. Merchandise revenue was $4.8 million, down 27%. North America system-wide sales were $432.2 million, up 10% year-over-year, driven by growth from net new studio openings. Same-store sales were down 0.8% for the quarter and up 5.4% on a 2-year stack basis.

Operational Highlights and Challenges

The company ended the quarter with 3,066 global open studios, opened 78 gross new studios, and sold 49 licenses. However, approximately 40% of its global licenses are over 12 months behind their applicable development schedules. The company is taking steps to improve its marketing, operations support, unit growth, and licensing, innovation, and efficiencies.

Valuation Metrics and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of -4.14 and an EV/EBITDA of -25.29, the company's valuation metrics indicate a challenging environment. However, the company's guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with North America system-wide sales expected to range from $1.73 billion to $1.75 billion, representing a 12% increase at the midpoint. Total 2025 revenue is expected to be between $300 million and $310 million.

Brand Performance and Strategic Initiatives

Club Pilates reported same-store sales growth moderated to 1% in the third quarter. The company is exploring enhanced pricing strategies to drive revenue and is working with an expert to analyze data and develop a thoughtful approach to pricing and packages. StretchLab is working to replace lost Medicare revenue by driving an expanded membership mix.

Future Prospects and Risks

The company is actively exploring opportunities to bring in larger-scale operators, including private equity firms, to support its franchisee base. However, franchisees face challenges like labor, occupancy, and instructor availability. The company's efforts to mitigate these challenges through instructor training programs and ProfitKeeper system will be crucial in driving future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

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Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Nov -07

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Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Nov -07

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Top Fitness Stocks To Research – October 28th

Oct -30

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Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -09

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Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Q2 Earnings: Taking a Look at Key Metrics Versus Estimates

Aug -08

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Xponential Fitness (XPOF) Q2 Earnings Surpass Estimates

Aug -07

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Xponential (XPOF) Q2 EPS Jumps 18%

Aug -07

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.58%)

6. Segments

Franchise

Expected Growth: 8%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s franchise growth is driven by increasing demand for boutique fitness, low-cost membership models, and a diverse portfolio of brands (e.g., Club Pilates, CycleBar). Strong unit economics, scalable business models, and a loyal customer base also contribute to the 8% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 7%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s 7% growth is driven by increasing demand for boutique fitness, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of brands, including Club Pilates, CycleBar, and StretchLab, contributes to its growth. Furthermore, the growing trend of health and wellness, coupled with the rise of the gig economy, fuels demand for flexible and convenient fitness options.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 10%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s equipment segment growth is driven by increasing demand for boutique fitness experiences, expansion of existing brands, and strategic acquisitions. Growing health awareness, rising disposable income, and the need for convenient, high-energy workouts also contribute to this 10% growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on technology integration, data-driven decision making, and strong marketing efforts support its rapid expansion.

Merchandise

Expected Growth: 11%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s 11% merchandise growth is driven by increasing demand for at-home fitness solutions, expansion of e-commerce platforms, and strategic partnerships with popular fitness influencers. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of boutique fitness brands, such as Club Pilates and CycleBar, contributes to the growth.

Franchise Marketing Fund

Expected Growth: 9%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s 9% growth in Franchise Marketing Fund is driven by increasing brand awareness, strategic marketing campaigns, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the rise of the health and wellness industry, coupled with the growing demand for boutique fitness experiences, contributes to the fund's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Club Pilates

A boutique fitness studio offering Pilates-based workouts in a variety of formats, including group classes and private sessions.

CycleBar

A premium indoor cycling studio offering high-energy, instructor-led classes with state-of-the-art equipment and technology.

StretchLab

A stretching studio offering one-on-one and group stretching sessions to improve flexibility, range of motion, and overall wellness.

Row House

A high-energy, rowing-based fitness studio offering group classes and personalized coaching.

AKT

A dance-based fitness studio offering high-energy classes that combine elements of dance, Pilates, and yoga.

Yoga Six

A yoga studio offering a variety of classes and workshops for all levels, from beginner to advanced.

Rumble

A boxing-inspired fitness studio offering high-intensity, group classes that combine boxing techniques with strength training.

BFT

A boot camp-style fitness program offering high-intensity, group classes that combine strength training and cardio exercises.

8. Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Xponential Fitness, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique and diverse range of fitness brands, including Club Pilates, CycleBar, and StretchLab, among others. This diversification reduces the threat of substitutes, as customers are more likely to remain loyal to the brand.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Xponential Fitness, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers, as customers have some flexibility to choose from various fitness brands and studios. However, the company's strong brand reputation and customer loyalty programs help to mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Xponential Fitness, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers, as it has a diverse range of suppliers for its various fitness brands. This diversification reduces the dependence on any single supplier, giving the company more negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Xponential Fitness, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants, as the fitness industry is highly competitive and relatively easy to enter. New entrants can easily start a fitness studio or gym, posing a threat to the company's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Xponential Fitness, Inc. operates in a highly competitive fitness industry, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. This intense rivalry puts pressure on the company to maintain its market position and differentiate its brands.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 103.28%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight -3.28%
Equity Cost 9.92%
WACC 3.75%
Leverage -3146.59%

11. Quality Control: Xponential Fitness, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Johnson Outdoors

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 8.7

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Clarus

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
JAKKS Pacific

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Xponential Fitness

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
American Outdoor Brands

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Inspirato

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.17$

Current Price

7.17$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows