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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally.The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, boxing, dancing, running, and functional training under the Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, Row House, YogaSix, Rumble, AKT, Stride, and BFT brands.As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios on an adjusted basis.


The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on XPOF

Xponential Fitness' recent performance was negatively impacted by concerning Q4 results, with a significant EBITDA headwind due to increased marketing expenses. Operational metrics are trending down, pressuring the 2026 outlook. Same-store sales reflect challenged member acquisition efforts, and franchisees continue to close studios at an elevated rate. Multiple law firms, including Lowey Dannenberg, Pomerantz, and Rosen Law Firm, are investigating potential securities fraud and misleading business information. A consensus rating of "Reduce" from brokerages, with two sell ratings, also weighs on the stock.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Xponential Fitness: Q4 2025 Earnings – Margins, Losses, and a Leaner 2026 Outlook

Revenue for the full year hovered around $260‑$270 million, flat against 2024, while adjusted EBITDA slipped 4 % to $111.8 million, underscoring pressure on margins. Net loss narrowed to $53.7 million from $98.7 million, yet the company posted an earnings per share of –$0.91 versus a consensus of –$0.0342 (Nuzzo). Valuation reflects this weakness, with a P/E of –7.65 and an EV/EBITDA of 39.0.

Publication Date: 07:33

📋 Highlights
  • 201 Net New Studios & $1.75B System-Wide Sales:: Xponential opened 201 net new studios in 2025, achieving $1.75 billion in system-wide sales, driven by franchise growth and strong brands.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Decline:: Q4 adjusted EBITDA dropped 26% YoY to $22.9 million, with full-year 2025 at $111.8 million (-4% YoY), reflecting challenges in sustaining growth.
  • Studio Closures & Attrition:: Net unit growth is expected to decline 20% in 2026 to 150–170 openings, with 20% closure rate, primarily in Pure Barre, StretchLab, and YogaSix.
  • Franchise Revenue Growth:: Q4 franchise revenue rose 14% YoY to $51.5 million, driven by license sales and resolving delinquent franchise licenses.
  • Cash Position & Debt Restructuring:: Cash increased $13.1 million to $45.9 million in 2025, alongside a $525 million term loan refinancing to strengthen liquidity.

Unit Growth and Closures

The franchise model faced a 20 % net decline in studios, driven largely by closures in Pure Barre, StretchLab, and YogaSix. Despite 201 net new studios in 2025, the company now projects only 150‑170 openings in 2026, a 20 % cut, while anticipating a 10 % annual addition to offset the attrition.

Franchise Revenue Drivers

Franchise revenue surged 14 % YoY to $51.5 million, bolstered by accelerated license income and remediation of delinquent payments. The club Pilates brand remains the linchpin, with a projected 1 % sales lift in North America to $1.72‑$1.8 billion in 2026, reflecting a focus on organic growth.

Marketing and Field Operations

A 35‑person field team now supports franchisees, enhancing lead-to-member conversion and local marketing. The company invested $4 million in Q4 marketing and plans to test pricing, trial offers, and unlimited packages in Q2 2026, aiming to lift same‑store sales and member retention.

Capital Structure and Cash Position

Cash rose to $45.9 million, with a $525 million 5‑year term loan and $25 million revolving credit. Net debt/EBITDA sits at 25.32, reflecting a cautious debt stance amid reduced studio openings and tighter margins.

2026 Outlook and Guidance

Guidance signals a 16 % revenue dip to $260‑$270 million, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $100‑$110 million, a 6 % decline. The firm’s conservative stance hinges on the uncertainty of closures, yet it expects modest same‑store sales growth and continued focus on Club Pilates’ international expansion.

3. NewsRoom

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JPMorgan Chase & Co. Increases Stock Position in Xponential Fitness, Inc. $XPOF

Apr -07

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Xponential Fitness, Inc. Initiates Review of Strategic Alternatives to Maximize Shareholder Value

Apr -07

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Xponential Fitness, Inc. Investigated by the Portnoy Law Firm

Apr -06

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Kanen Wealth Management Urges Xponential Fitness (NYSE: XPOF) Board to Initiate Strategic Review, Including Potential Sale

Apr -01

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XPONENTIAL INVESTIGATION ALERT: Bragar Eagel & Squire, P.C. is Investigating Xponential Fitness, Inc. on Behalf of Xponential Stockholders and Encourages Investors to Contact the Firm

Mar -30

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INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Xponential Fitness, Inc. - XPOF

Mar -26

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INVESTOR ALERT: Pomerantz Law Firm Investigates Claims On Behalf of Investors of Xponential Fitness, Inc. - XPOF

Mar -24

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Xponential Fitness, Inc. (NYSE:XPOF) Receives Consensus Rating of “Reduce” from Brokerages

Mar -23

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.58%)

6. Segments

Franchise

Expected Growth: 8%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s franchise growth is driven by increasing demand for boutique fitness, low-cost membership models, and a diverse portfolio of brands (e.g., Club Pilates, CycleBar). Strong unit economics, scalable business models, and a loyal customer base also contribute to the 8% growth rate.

Other

Expected Growth: 7%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s 7% growth is driven by increasing demand for boutique fitness, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of brands, including Club Pilates, CycleBar, and StretchLab, contributes to its growth. Furthermore, the growing trend of health and wellness, coupled with the rise of the gig economy, fuels demand for flexible and convenient fitness options.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 10%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s equipment segment growth is driven by increasing demand for boutique fitness experiences, expansion of existing brands, and strategic acquisitions. Growing health awareness, rising disposable income, and the need for convenient, high-energy workouts also contribute to this 10% growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on technology integration, data-driven decision making, and strong marketing efforts support its rapid expansion.

Merchandise

Expected Growth: 11%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s 11% merchandise growth is driven by increasing demand for at-home fitness solutions, expansion of e-commerce platforms, and strategic partnerships with popular fitness influencers. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio of boutique fitness brands, such as Club Pilates and CycleBar, contributes to the growth.

Franchise Marketing Fund

Expected Growth: 9%

Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s 9% growth in Franchise Marketing Fund is driven by increasing brand awareness, strategic marketing campaigns, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the rise of the health and wellness industry, coupled with the growing demand for boutique fitness experiences, contributes to the fund's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Club Pilates

A boutique fitness studio offering Pilates-based workouts in a variety of formats, including group classes and private sessions.

CycleBar

A premium indoor cycling studio offering high-energy, instructor-led classes with state-of-the-art equipment and technology.

StretchLab

A stretching studio offering one-on-one and group stretching sessions to improve flexibility, range of motion, and overall wellness.

Row House

A high-energy, rowing-based fitness studio offering group classes and personalized coaching.

AKT

A dance-based fitness studio offering high-energy classes that combine elements of dance, Pilates, and yoga.

Yoga Six

A yoga studio offering a variety of classes and workshops for all levels, from beginner to advanced.

Rumble

A boxing-inspired fitness studio offering high-intensity, group classes that combine boxing techniques with strength training.

BFT

A boot camp-style fitness program offering high-intensity, group classes that combine strength training and cardio exercises.

8. Xponential Fitness, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Xponential Fitness, Inc. has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique and diverse range of fitness brands, including Club Pilates, CycleBar, and StretchLab, among others. This diversification reduces the threat of substitutes, as customers are more likely to remain loyal to the brand.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Xponential Fitness, Inc. has a medium bargaining power of customers, as customers have some flexibility to choose from various fitness brands and studios. However, the company's strong brand reputation and customer loyalty programs help to mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Xponential Fitness, Inc. has a low bargaining power of suppliers, as it has a diverse range of suppliers for its various fitness brands. This diversification reduces the dependence on any single supplier, giving the company more negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

Xponential Fitness, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants, as the fitness industry is highly competitive and relatively easy to enter. New entrants can easily start a fitness studio or gym, posing a threat to the company's market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Xponential Fitness, Inc. operates in a highly competitive fitness industry, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share. This intense rivalry puts pressure on the company to maintain its market position and differentiate its brands.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 103.28%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight -3.28%
Equity Cost 9.92%
WACC 3.75%
Leverage -3146.59%

11. Quality Control: Xponential Fitness, Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Johnson Outdoors

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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JAKKS Pacific

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Clarus

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 1.2

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
American Outdoor Brands

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Xponential Fitness

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Inspirato

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.58$

Current Price

7.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows