bpost NV/SA (BPOST.BR) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

bpost NV/SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides mail and parcel services to consumers, businesses, and government in Belgium, rest of Europe, the United States, and internationally.The company operates in three segments: Mail & Retail; PaLo N.Am.; and PaLo Eurasia.

Its mail and parcels services include collection, transport, sorting, and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers, and parcels, as well as banking and financial products, e-commerce logistics, express delivery, proximity and convenience, document management, and related services.The company also offers transactional mails, advertising mails, press, domestic and international parcels, logistic solutions, and cross-border products, as well as value-added services.bpost NV/SA was incorporated in 1830 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on BPOST

Bpost NV/SA's recent performance was positively influenced by its strategic positioning amidst global logistics disruptions. Notably, the company aligned with other European postal services, such as Royal Mail and Austrian Post, in responding to the de minimis closure. This move, as seen in DHL's pause on most global parcel shipments to the US, highlights Bpost's adaptability. According to recent announcements, Bpost's preparedness in handling such changes may contribute to its resilience. A recent rating upgrade by analysts at Berenberg (source: Bloomberg) also boosted investors' confidence.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	1.91
Change Percentage	1.48%
Open	1.89
Previous Close	1.89
Market Cap ( Millions)	383
Volume	217551
Year High	2.58
Year Low	1.25
M A 50	2.03
M A 200	1.93

FCF Yield	90.12%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-32.69%
Debt / Equity	407.55%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	304.45%
Price To Book	0.51
Price Earnings Ratio	-1.35
Price To FCF	1.11
Price To sales	0.08
EV / EBITDA	3.69

2. bpost Group's Q3 Results: A Mixed Bag

The bpost Group reported a group operating income of EUR 1.030 billion for the third quarter, remaining broadly stable year-on-year. However, the adjusted EBIT came in at minus EUR 3 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of EUR 16.3 million, mainly driven by Radial U.S. The revenue decline in BeNe Last Mile was partially offset by an increase in Parcels revenue. The actual EPS came out at 0.0045, significantly lower than the estimated 0.1569.

Publication Date: Nov -30

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Adjusted EBIT Decline:
                                                Group adjusted EBIT at -EUR 3 million, down EUR 16.3 million YoY, driven by Radial U.S. losses.
Cross-Border Growth:
                                                Cross-border revenue rose EUR 11 million (14% YoY), fueled by 14% volume growth from Asia.
Net Cash Outflow Improvement:
                                                Net cash outflow reduced to -EUR 16 million, up EUR 275 million YoY, reflecting effective cost containment.
2025 EBIT Outlook Confirmed:
                                                Maintained annual EBIT guidance at EUR 180 million, implying Q4 EBIT of EUR 80–85 million.
Radial Fast Track Progress:
                                                Launched asset-light Radial Fast Track with 16 customers (ACV of EUR 5 million), though lower than lost customers.

                                

Segment Performance

In BeNe Last Mile, revenue declined by EUR 9 million to EUR 512 million, while in 3PL, revenues were broadly stable overall. The cross-border segment saw a revenue increase of EUR 11 million or 14% year-over-year, driven by strong volume growth from Asia. The operating income for cross-border increased by roughly EUR 12 million or 8.7%.

Radial U.S. Challenges

Radial U.S. continues to be a challenge, with customer churn and a decline in revenue. However, the company has launched a new product offering called Radial Fast Track, which aims to provide more flexible and asset-light solutions. As Philippe Dartienne noted, "Historically, it took 12 months to onboard new customers due to high customization, but with Radial Fast Track, it's happening much faster."

Valuation Metrics

Looking at the valuation metrics, the P/E Ratio is negative at -1.34, indicating that the company is currently not profitable. The P/S Ratio is low at 0.08, suggesting that the company's revenue is not highly valued by the market. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 3.69, which is relatively low. The ROE is negative at -32.69%, and the ROIC is also negative at -3.86%, indicating that the company's investments are not generating returns.

Outlook

The company has reconfirmed its EBIT outlook at around EUR 180 million for the year 2025. The integration of Staci remains on track, and the company expects to overdeliver on its 2025 synergy targets. However, the peak season is becoming more spread out, making it difficult to predict exact volumes.

Conclusion on Valuation

Given the current challenges and the valuation metrics, it appears that the market is pricing in a significant amount of distress. The low P/S Ratio and EV/EBITDA ratio suggest that the company's revenue and EBITDA are not highly valued. The negative ROE and ROIC indicate that the company's investments are not generating returns, which may be a concern for investors.

3. NewsRoom

Bpost SA de Droit Public (BPOSY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Resilience Amidst Challenges

Nov -05

Source:

Amazon.com (AMZN) Plans to Invest 1 Billion Euros in Belgium

Oct -16

Source:

Amazon to invest $1.16 billion in Belgium by 2027, L'Echo reports

Oct -08

Source:

Mexico Suspends Package Deliveries to US, Prepares to Raise Tariffs on China

Aug -28

Source:

DHL Pauses Most Global Parcel Shipments to US Ahead of De Minimis Closure

Aug -22

Source:

Bpost SA de Droit Public (WBO:BPOS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Operating Income ...

May -10

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (0.91%)

6. Segments

Belgium

Expected Growth: 0%

bpost NV/SA in Belgium faces stagnant growth due to declining mail volumes, intense competition in parcel delivery, and high labor costs. Additionally, the company's limited international presence and lack of diversification in its service offerings hinder growth opportunities.

E-Logistics North America

Expected Growth: 2%

E-Logistics North America from bpost NV/SA growth driven by increasing e-commerce demand, strategic acquisitions, and investments in digitalization and automation, enabling efficient parcel delivery and expanding market share.

E-Logistics Eurasia

Expected Growth: 3%

E-Logistics Eurasia's 3% growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, strategic partnerships, and expansion into new markets. The rise of cross-border online shopping and need for efficient logistics solutions also contribute to growth. Additionally, bpost's investment in digitalization and process optimization enables E-Logistics Eurasia to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs, further supporting growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 0%

No growth in eliminations from bpost NV/SA is attributed to stagnant parcel volumes, intense competition in the Belgian postal market, and lack of innovation in their logistics services, resulting in flat revenue and no eliminations.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 0%

bpost NV/SA's stagnant growth is attributed to intense competition in the parcel delivery market, declining mail volumes, and high labor costs. Additionally, the company's limited international presence and lack of diversification in its service offerings hinder its ability to expand and innovate, resulting in stagnant growth.

7. Detailed Products

Parcel Services

Bpost's parcel services allow individuals and businesses to send parcels domestically and internationally.

Mail Services

Bpost's mail services provide a range of postal solutions for individuals and businesses, including letter mail, direct mail, and subscription-based services.

Express Services

Bpost's express services offer fast and reliable delivery of time-sensitive documents and packages.

E-Commerce Logistics

Bpost's e-commerce logistics solutions provide online retailers with a range of services, including order fulfillment, warehousing, and delivery.

International Services

Bpost's international services provide a range of postal solutions for sending mail and parcels worldwide.

Financial Services

Bpost's financial services offer a range of financial solutions, including payment services and insurance products.

Data and Analytics

Bpost's data and analytics services provide businesses with insights and data-driven solutions to optimize their logistics and supply chain operations.

8. bpost NV/SA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for bpost NV/SA is medium due to the presence of alternative logistics and delivery services, but the company's strong brand and customer loyalty mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for bpost NV/SA, as the company has a large customer base and a strong market position, giving it negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for bpost NV/SA, as the company relies on a few large suppliers for fuel and transportation services, but has some flexibility to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for bpost NV/SA, as the company has a strong market position and significant barriers to entry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for bpost NV/SA, as the company operates in a highly competitive market with several large players, and must constantly innovate and improve services to maintain market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	43.36%
Debt Cost	5.91%
Equity Weight	56.64%
Equity Cost	8.51%
WACC	7.39%
Leverage	76.54%

11. Quality Control: bpost NV/SA passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Hargreaves Services

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Prosegur Cash

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

STEF

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

PostNL

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 1.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

bpost

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 1.1

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Wincanton

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-10.12%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.39%

bpost NV/SA - BE0974268972

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on BPOST

1.c. Company Highlights

Cheaper

Higher Yield

Lower Quality

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Weak Momentum

Earnings Beats

Lower Growth

2. bpost Group's Q3 Results: A Mixed Bag

Segment Performance

Radial U.S. Challenges

Valuation Metrics

Outlook

Conclusion on Valuation

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (0.91%)

6. Segments

Belgium

Expected Growth: 0%

E-Logistics North America

Expected Growth: 2%

E-Logistics Eurasia

Expected Growth: 3%

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 0%

Corporate

Expected Growth: 0%

7. Detailed Products

Parcel Services

Mail Services

Express Services

E-Commerce Logistics

International Services

Financial Services

Data and Analytics

8. bpost NV/SA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: bpost NV/SA passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.91$

Current Price

1.91$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA