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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PostNL N.V. provides postal and logistics services to businesses and consumers in the Netherlands, rest of Europe, and internationally.The company operates in two segments, Parcels, Mail in the Netherlands; and PostNL Other.It collects, sorts, transports, and delivers letters and parcels; and offers data and document management, direct marketing, and fulfillment services, as well as cross-border mail solutions.


The company was formerly known as TNT N.V. and changed its name to PostNL N.V. in May 2011.PostNL N.V. is headquartered in the Hague, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on PNL

Negative drivers behind PostNL N.V.'s recent performance include soft earnings, which failed to impress investors despite a 2.8% revenue increase to €3.26 billion in FY 2024. The company's net income missed expectations, and margin pressures, coupled with market share challenges, weighed on its Q4 2024 earnings. Additionally, PostNL's parcel volume growth was offset by cost savings, highlighting the company's strategic challenges.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PostNL's Q3 2025 Results: A Mixed Bag

PostNL's Q3 2025 results were largely in line with expectations, with revenue coming in at €762 million, slightly above last year's figure. Normalized EBIT was -€21 million, and free cash flow was -€18 million, bringing the year-to-date total to €98 million. The company's EPS came out at -€0.04749, missing estimates of €0.02561. The Parcels segment saw a 1% volume growth, with international customer volumes up 5%, while Mail volumes declined by 5% due to substitution.

Publication Date: Dec -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 revenue reached €762 million, slightly higher than last year, driven by 1% Parcels volume growth and 5% international parcel volume increase.
  • EBIT Performance:: Normalized EBIT was -€21 million, aligning with 2024 expectations, while Mail segment EBIT loss widened to -€23 million due to volume declines.
  • Breakthrough 2028 Targets:: Aims for >€4 billion revenue and >€175 million normalized EBIT by 2028, with 70-90% dividend payout ratio and >12% ROIC.
  • Debt and Capital Structure:: Adjusted net debt stood at €572 million, with a new €300 million bond issuance, as CapEx drives negative free cash flow (-€18M Q3).

Segment Performance

The Mail segment's normalized EBIT was -€23 million, and the company is awaiting a decision on its appeal for a financial contribution for 2025 and 2026. The Parcels segment's performance was driven by international customer volumes, which were up 5%. However, the pricing effect on Parcels is expected to be largest in Q4, with price increases having a larger effect due to peak periods.

Outlook and Guidance

PostNL reiterated its 2025 outlook, expecting normalized EBIT to be in line with 2024 performance, and free cash flow to be negative due to higher CapEx. The company aims to achieve over €4 billion in revenue and over €175 million in normalized EBIT by 2028 under its Breakthrough 2028 program. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.4%.

Valuation and Metrics

PostNL's current valuation metrics are mixed, with a P/E Ratio of -34.63, P/B Ratio of 3.44, and P/S Ratio of 0.16. The company's EV/EBITDA is 5.55, and its Dividend Yield is 6.81%. The Free Cash Flow Yield is 8.03%, indicating a relatively healthy cash flow generation. However, the ROIC is -0.39%, and the ROE is -8.63%, indicating that the company is still struggling to generate returns on its investments.

Universal Service Obligation (USO)

Regarding the USO, PostNL aims to achieve breakeven by 2027-2028, not in 2026. The proposed move to D+3 in July 2027 and changes in quality levels are steps towards this goal. However, uncertainty around timelines and the political process persists. The company has requested the minister to withdraw the obligation of the USO within two months, but the timeline is not in their control.

Operational Updates

PostNL has made progress in its Automated Parcel Machines (APMs) rollout, with around 1,250 APMs currently in operation, up from 1,100 at year-end last year. The company aims for over 3,000 APMs by 2028. Emission-free last-mile delivery increased to 33%, and the company has started rolling out over 40 electrical vans in its transport services.

3. NewsRoom

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PostNL unveils 2028 strategy, splits parcels into e-commerce, platforms

Sep -17

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PostNL's ambitious growth target for 2028 sends shares surging in Amsterdam

Sep -17

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.43%)

6. Segments

Parcels

Expected Growth: 4.0%

The 4.0% growth in parcels from PostNL N.V. is driven by increasing e-commerce adoption, rising demand for fast and reliable delivery, and strategic investments in digitalization and network expansion. Additionally, growing demand for parcel services from small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the increasing popularity of online shopping among consumers also contribute to this growth.

Mail in the Netherlands

Expected Growth: 2.5%

PostNL N.V.'s 2.5% mail growth in the Netherlands is driven by increasing e-commerce parcel volumes, growth in online shopping, and a shift towards more convenient delivery options. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, investments in logistics infrastructure, and cost savings initiatives have contributed to this growth.

Other Operating

Expected Growth: 2.0%

PostNL N.V.'s 2.0% growth in Other Operating is driven by increasing e-commerce volumes, expansion of parcel services, and cost savings initiatives. Additionally, strategic partnerships and investments in digitalization have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the segment's growth.

PostNL Other

Expected Growth: 1.5%

PostNL Other's 1.5% growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, expansion of parcel services, and cost savings initiatives. Additionally, the segment benefits from the growth of online shopping, leading to higher volumes of parcel delivery. Furthermore, PostNL's focus on digitalization and process optimization also contributes to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Parcels

PostNL's parcel delivery service allows individuals and businesses to send packages across the Netherlands and internationally.

Mail

PostNL's mail service provides postal delivery of letters, postcards, and other mail items.

Logistics

PostNL's logistics services offer customized supply chain solutions for businesses, including warehousing, transportation, and distribution.

International

PostNL's international services provide parcel and mail delivery to over 200 countries worldwide.

Digital Services

PostNL's digital services include online shipping tools, track-and-trace, and data analytics for businesses.

Retail Services

PostNL's retail services offer a range of products and services at post offices, including postal stamps, packaging materials, and more.

8. PostNL N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for PostNL N.V. is medium due to the presence of alternative logistics and delivery services, but the company's strong brand and network of postal services mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for PostNL N.V. as the company has a large customer base and provides essential services, giving it a strong negotiating position.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium for PostNL N.V. as the company relies on a network of suppliers for fuel, vehicles, and other essential services, but it also has some negotiating power due to its large scale of operations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low for PostNL N.V. due to the high barriers to entry in the postal services industry, including the need for a large network of postal services and significant capital investment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for PostNL N.V. due to the competitive nature of the logistics and delivery services industry, with several major players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 84.26%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 15.74%
Equity Cost 8.78%
WACC 4.71%
Leverage 535.35%

11. Quality Control: PostNL N.V. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Hargreaves Services

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Prosegur Cash

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
STEF

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 2.4

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PostNL

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 1.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
bpost

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 1.1

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Wincanton

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.01$

Current Price

1.01$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows