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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Assured Guaranty Ltd., through its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance, infrastructure, and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally.The company operates in two segments, Insurance and Asset Management.It offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments.


The company insures and reinsures various debt obligations, including bonds issued by the United States state governmental authorities; and notes issued to finance infrastructure projects.It also insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds.Further, it is involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, pooled infrastructure, and other public finance obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. Structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, consumer receivables securities, pooled corporate obligations, financial products, and other structured finance securities.


Additionally, the company offers specialty insurance and reinsurance that include life and aircraft residual value insurance transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services, including management of collateralized loan obligations, and opportunity and liquid strategy funds.It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors in such obligations.Assured Guaranty Ltd.


was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.

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1.b. Last Insights on AGO

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by a Q4 earnings miss, with a quarterly earnings of $1.27 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $1.48 per share. This decline in earnings, compared to $5.75 per share a year ago, suggests that the company's financial performance is weakening. The lack of growth in earnings, despite a 10% increase in quarterly dividend to $0.34 per common share, may be a concern for investors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Assured Guaranty Posts Strong Q3 Earnings with Record Financial Guarantee Production

Assured Guaranty Limited reported adjusted operating income of $124 million or $2.57 per share in the third quarter of 2025, with actual EPS coming in at $2.42, beating estimates of $1.54. The company's financial guarantee production was strong, with $91 million of PVP, a 44% increase compared to the same period last year. The year-to-date adjusted operating income per share stood at $6.77, a 17% increase compared to the same period last year. The company's adjusted book value per share and adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share reached record highs at $181.37 and $123.10, respectively.

Publication Date: Nov -13

📋 Highlights
  • Record Adjusted Book Value: Reaches $181.37/share, up from prior highs.
  • 17% YoY Adjusted Operating Income Growth: Hits $6.77/share year-to-date (2025 vs. 2024).
  • Q3 PVP Surges 44%: to $91 million, driven by U.S. municipal bond market shifts.
  • $118M Share Repurchases: in Q3 (1.4M shares) with $332M remaining authorization.
  • Investment Income Rises $11M: Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024 due to CLO equity reclassifications.

Business Mix and Financial Performance

The U.S. public finance business produced $152 million of PVP for the first 9 months, driven by record U.S. municipal bond issuance and strong investor demand for municipal bond insurance. Rob Bailenson, Chief Operating Officer, highlighted the marked change in the business mix of U.S. municipal bonds that came to market in the third quarter. The company's investment portfolio earned $11 million more in the third quarter of 2025 than in the third quarter of 2024, primarily due to the reclassification of certain CLO equity tranche investments and higher net investment income on the externally managed fixed maturity portfolio.

Capital Management and Share Repurchase

The company repurchased 1.4 million shares for $118 million and returned $16 million in dividends to shareholders. As of the end of the third quarter, Assured Guaranty held $272 million in cash and investments, and had $332 million remaining in its share repurchase authorization. The company's capital management strategy is focused on returning value to shareholders while maintaining a strong capital position.

Valuation and Outlook

With a Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of 0.77, the company's valuation appears reasonable. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -11.3%. Despite this, the company's diversified business mix and strong financial performance position it for long-term success. The company's exploration of new opportunities in infrastructure, fund finance, and other areas is expected to drive future growth. The Dividend Yield stands at 1.52%, providing a relatively stable return for investors.

3. NewsRoom

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After Golden Cross, Assured Guaranty (AGO)'s Technical Outlook is Bright

Dec -03

Source: zacks.com

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American Century Companies Inc. Buys 40,354 Shares of Assured Guaranty Ltd. $AGO

Nov -26

Source: defenseworld.net

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Geode Capital Management LLC Trims Stake in Assured Guaranty Ltd. $AGO

Nov -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -07

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Assured Guaranty (AGO) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Nov -07

Source: zacks.com

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.34 per Common Share

Nov -05

Source: businesswire.com

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Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. Has $490,000 Holdings in Assured Guaranty Ltd. $AGO

Nov -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Assured Guaranty Ltd. $AGO Shares Sold by Ethic Inc.

Oct -30

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.27%)

6. Segments

Insurance

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 4.83% growth in insurance is driven by increasing demand for municipal bond insurance, expansion into new markets, and a strong brand reputation. Additionally, the company's diversified portfolio, effective risk management, and strategic partnerships have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the rising need for credit enhancement in the municipal bond market has also fueled the company's growth.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 4.65% growth is driven by increasing demand for municipal bond insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's strong risk management practices, diversified investment portfolio, and solid capital position contribute to its growth momentum.

Reconciling Items

Expected Growth: 8.3%

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 8.3% growth is driven by increasing demand for municipal bond insurance, expansion into new markets, and a strong track record of claims-paying ability. Additionally, the company's disciplined underwriting approach and active capital management have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the company's diversified portfolio and strategic partnerships have also played a key role in achieving this level of growth.

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 5.83%

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 5.83% growth in Asset Management is driven by increasing demand for municipal bond insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's strong risk management practices, diversified investment portfolio, and cost savings initiatives have contributed to its growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 8.37%

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s 8.37% growth is driven by increasing demand for municipal bond insurance, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's strong risk management practices, diversified portfolio, and solid capital position contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Municipal Bond Insurance

Assured Guaranty provides financial guaranty insurance for municipal bonds, protecting investors from default risk and enhancing credit quality.

Structured Finance Insurance

Assured Guaranty offers insurance for structured finance transactions, such as asset-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations.

Aircraft Lease Insurance

Assured Guaranty provides insurance for aircraft leases, protecting lessors from default risk and enhancing the credit quality of the lease.

International Infrastructure Insurance

Assured Guaranty offers insurance for international infrastructure projects, such as transportation, energy, and social infrastructure.

Reinsurance

Assured Guaranty provides reinsurance for other insurance companies, helping them manage risk and enhance their capital positions.

8. Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in a niche market, providing financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance. While there are some substitutes available, the company's specialized products and services reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s customers are primarily institutional investors and financial institutions, which have limited bargaining power due to the company's specialized products and services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Assured Guaranty Ltd. has a diversified supplier base, and the company's suppliers have limited bargaining power due to the availability of alternative suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The financial guaranty insurance and reinsurance market has high barriers to entry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements, which reduce the threat of new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Assured Guaranty Ltd. operates in a competitive market, but the company's specialized products and services, as well as its strong brand reputation, help to mitigate the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 23.04%
Debt Cost 4.66%
Equity Weight 76.96%
Equity Cost 9.66%
WACC 8.51%
Leverage 29.93%

11. Quality Control: Assured Guaranty Ltd. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Fidelity National Financial

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Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.7

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MGIC

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Volatility: 9.3

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Essent Group

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 9.0

Yield: 4.0

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Assurant

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Assured Guaranty

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.3

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A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 9.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

88.63$

Current Price

88.63$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows