Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (GKP.L) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom.The company operates Shaikan field that covers an area of 280 square kilometers, which is located north-west of Erbil.It also provides management, support, geological, geophysical, and engineering services.

The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on GKP

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited's recent performance has been influenced by the overall UK market volatility, largely attributed to weak trade data from China and its impact on global economic conditions. Despite this, the company's strong insider ownership is perceived as a confidence booster, indicating alignment between management and shareholders' interests. With no recent earnings release providing specific updates on the company's financial health, investors are focusing on growth companies with high insider ownership as a sign of resilience. Notably, such companies are expected to exhibit up to 67% earnings growth, making them appealing amidst broader market fluctuations.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	176.2
Change Percentage	0.34%
Open	178
Previous Close	175.6
Market Cap ( Millions)	382
Volume	582364
Year High	226.35
Year Low	131
M A 50	184.83
M A 200	173.97

FCF Yield	12.58%
Dividend Yield	8.56%
ROE	-0.10%
Debt / Equity	0.31%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-108.55%
Price To Book	1.06
Price Earnings Ratio	-1024.52
Price To FCF	7.95
Price To sales	3.12
EV / EBITDA	4.58

2. Gulf Keystone Petroleum's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

The company's actual EPS came out at $0.00947, beating estimates of $0.00728. Revenue growth was robust, driven by strong local demand and reservoir performance, leading to a 12% increase in first-half 2025 gross average production to 44,100 barrels of oil per day (bpd). Adjusted EBITDA rose 13% to $41 million, with gross operating expenses flat at $4.2 per barrel.

Publication Date: Sep -08

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    2025 Production Growth:
                                                12% increase in H1 2025 gross average production to 44,100 bpd, driven by strong demand and reservoir performance.
Dividend Commitment:
                                                Declared $50M in dividends (two $25M interim payments) amid $41M adjusted EBITDA and $106M cash reserves.
Capital Discipline:
                                                $13M cash net CapEx in H1 2025, with 2025 guidance revised to $30–35M, prioritizing the $12M PF2 water handling project.
Production Resilience:
                                                1.3M barrels of lost output due to June trucking shortages and mid-July drone shutdown, but production rebounded in August.
Export Strategy:
                                                Active negotiations to restart Kurdistan exports via Iraq-Turkey pipeline, with potential $40M annual CapEx for two wells if exports resume.

                                

Financial Performance

With a realized price of $27.80, the company declared a second $25 million interim dividend, taking total dividends to $50 million year-to-date. Capital discipline remains central, with $13 million cash net CapEx in H1 2025 and revised 2025 guidance of $30–$35 million. The company maintains $106 million in cash and continues engaging stakeholders to restart Kurdistan exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline.

Valuation Metrics

Using the provided valuation metrics, the company's P/E Ratio stands at 80.95, indicating potentially high expectations for future growth. The Dividend Yield is 6.57%, suggesting an attractive return for income investors. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 4.98, which is relatively low, indicating the company's enterprise value is not excessively high compared to its EBITDA. Free Cash Flow Yield is 12.2%, suggesting a healthy return for investors.

Operational Highlights

Production guidance for 2025 was tightened to 40,000–42,000 bpd due to disruptions, including a mid-July shutdown triggered by drone attacks. The water handling project at Production Facility 2 is expected to add 17,000 bpd wet oil processing capacity by 2027, unlocking 4,000–8,000 bpd incremental production and reducing reservoir risk.

Future Plans

Future drilling plans depend on export resumption, with potential $40 million net annual CapEx for two wells if exports restart. The company prioritizes shareholder returns via dividends over buybacks, with flexibility based on share price and opportunities. M&A is not a priority, with growth focused on Shaikan’s 440M barrel 2P reserves.

3. NewsRoom

3 UK Growth Stocks With High Insider Ownership Growing Earnings Up To 87%

Nov -25

Source:

UK Penny Stocks To Watch In November 2025

Nov -03

Source:

Institutions own 26% of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited (LON:GKP) shares but retail investors control 47% of the company

Oct -23

Source:

3 UK Growth Stocks With High Insider Ownership Expecting 67% Earnings Growth

Oct -15

Source:

UK Growth Companies With High Insider Ownership In October 2025

Oct -14

Source:

3 UK Growth Stocks With Insider Ownership Up To 38%

Oct -13

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UK Growth Stocks With Strong Insider Ownership

Oct -10

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UK Growth Companies That Insiders Heavily Invest In

Oct -09

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.00%)

6. Segments

Oil and Gas

Expected Growth: 7%

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited's 7% growth in Oil and Gas is driven by increasing production from the Shaikan field, successful drilling campaigns, and improved operational efficiency. Additionally, rising global oil demand, favorable oil prices, and strategic partnerships contribute to the company's growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company, primarily focused on the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. The company's primary product is crude oil, which is extracted from its Shaikan field.

Natural Gas

In addition to crude oil, Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited also produces natural gas as a byproduct of its oil production operations.

Condensate

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited also produces condensate, a type of light oil, as a byproduct of its natural gas production.

8. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of oil and gas equipment and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited is high due to the presence of several established players in the oil and gas industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	0.07%
Debt Cost	9.87%
Equity Weight	99.93%
Equity Cost	9.87%
WACC	9.87%
Leverage	0.07%

11. Quality Control: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited passed 2 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Tamarack Valley Energy

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Vitesse Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Surge Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Evolution Petroleum

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Frontera Energy

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-7.44%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

9.87%

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited - BMG4209G2077

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on GKP

1.c. Company Highlights

Weak Momentum

Higher Yield

Average Quality

Average Growth

More Volatile

Strong Momentum

Average Yield

Higher Growth

Medium Volatility

Fairly Valued

Revenues Beats

Earnings Beats

Stable Momentum

Lower Growth

Revenues Miss

Earnings Miss

2. Gulf Keystone Petroleum's Q2 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look

Financial Performance

Valuation Metrics

Operational Highlights

Future Plans

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.00%)

6. Segments

Oil and Gas

Expected Growth: 7%

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Condensate

8. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.76$

Current Price

1.76$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA