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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.acquires, explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Western Canadian sedimentary basin.It primarily holds interests in the Clearwater assets covering an area of approximately 357 sections of land located in Alberta; Charlie Lake assets covering approximately 357 sections of land in the northwestern area of Alberta; Viking light oil play in central and southern Alberta and west central Saskatchewan; Barons Sand oil play in the Penny area of southern Alberta; and heavy oil properties.


The company was formerly known as Tango Energy Inc.and changed its name to Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.in June 2010.


Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on TVE

Tamarack Valley Energy's recent performance was driven by strong earnings growth, with annual earnings surging 95.6% and net profit margins nearly doubling to 17.9%. The company's 2026 corporate budget and guidance, unveiled on December 3, 2025, likely boosted investor optimism. Additionally, the appointment of a new director and announcement of additional shareholder returns contributed to the positive sentiment. RBC Capital Markets and CIBC Capital Markets raised their price targets on the company, citing its high-quality growth. A dividend payout of CA$0.0127 and plans for ongoing development of its Clearwater and Charlie Lake assets further support the company's growth prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Tamarack Valley Energy's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Operational Performance

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. reported a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with actual EPS coming in at $0.14, significantly beating estimates of $0.06. The company's corporate production averaged 66,126 BOE per day, despite planned service interruptions and maintenance turnarounds. The revenue growth was accompanied by a strong operational performance, with production expenses remaining low on a per BOE basis. The company's free funds flow for the first nine months of 2025 stood at $320 million, a 17% increase from the same period in 2024.

Publication Date: Oct -31

📋 Highlights
  • Acquisition & Asset Sale:: Completed $51.5M Clearwater tuck-in acquisition and sold non-core Eastern Alberta assets for $112M, reducing asset retirement obligations by $63M.
  • Free Funds Flow Growth:: Generated $320M in first nine months of 2025, a 17% increase YoY, driven by production efficiency and asset sales.
  • Debt Reduction:: Net debt fell to $631M (-19% YoY), with $57M returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks in Q3.
  • Waterflood Success:: Clearwater injection volumes hit 30,000 BOE/day early, projected to boost 2025 production by 3,600 BOE/day ahead of schedule.
  • Credit Rating Upgrade:: S&P raised Tamarack’s rating to B+ from B, citing debt reduction, operational performance, and disciplined capital allocation.

Operational Highlights

Tamarack Valley Energy made significant progress in its Clearwater waterflood project, with injection volumes exiting at over 30,000 barrels a day in September, achieving the 2025 exit target rate three months ahead of schedule. The company expects 2025 exit injection rates to exceed 35,000 barrels a day, representing approximately 22% of its Clearwater production under waterflood support. This is expected to drive 3,600 barrels a day of full-year production growth. As the company noted, the waterflood's success is attributed to the reservoir's characteristics and the large surface area created by drilling horizontal and multilateral wells.

Financial Position and Shareholder Returns

Tamarack Valley Energy ended the quarter with net debt of $631 million, a reduction of $144 million or 19% since the beginning of the year. The company returned $57 million to shareholders through a combination of the base dividend and share buybacks and increased its annual base dividend by 5% to $0.16 per share per year. The company plans to move to quarterly dividend payments starting in 2026. With a dividend yield of 2.46%, the stock offers an attractive return to shareholders.

Valuation and Outlook

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -1.8%. However, with a P/E Ratio of 12.5 and an EV/EBITDA of 3.88, the stock appears to be reasonably valued. The company's ROE stands at 11.72%, indicating a strong return on equity. As Tamarack Valley Energy continues to prioritize shareholder returns and focus on its core assets in the Charlie Lake and Clearwater plays, it is well-positioned for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Is Tamarack Valley Energy’s (TSX:TVE) 2026 Budget Quietly Redefining Its Capital Discipline Story?

Dec -04

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How the Narrative Around Tamarack Valley Energy Is Shifting After Analyst Target Upgrades

Dec -04

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Update: Tamarack Valley Up 5.4% as Unveils 2026 Corporate Guidance, Names New Director

Dec -03

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Tamarack Valley Unveils 2026 Corporate Budget, Names New Director

Dec -03

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Tamarack Valley Energy Announces 2026 Corporate Budget, Additional Shareholder Returns and Appointment of New Director

Dec -03

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Canadian Energy Companies Are Outperforming Despite Weak Oil Prices

Dec -01

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Is It Worth Considering Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TSE:TVE) For Its Upcoming Dividend?

Nov -23

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Tamarack Valley Energy (TSX:TVE) Earnings Growth Surges 95.6%, Challenging Value Narrative

Nov -01

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.15%)

6. Segments

Heavy Oil

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for heavy oil from Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is driven by increasing refining capacity and investments in specialized processing technologies, enabling the production of high-value petroleum products.

Light Oil

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Increasing demand for refined petroleum products, growth in transportation sector, and Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.'s strategic expansion plans drive the growth of Light Oil market.

Royalties

Expected Growth: 20.0%

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.'s royalty payments to landowners and governments, ranging from 10% to 30% of revenue, drive growth. Increasing oil and gas production, coupled with rising energy demand, fuels this segment's expansion.

Natural Gas

Expected Growth: 10.2%

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.'s natural gas production is expected to grow driven by increasing demand, improved operational efficiency, and strategic acquisitions in Western Canada.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Increasing demand for natural gas liquids, driven by petrochemical and industrial applications, coupled with Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.'s strategic expansion in Western Canada, is expected to drive growth in the segment.

Purchased Product

Expected Growth: 10.5%

The acquisition of oil and natural gas assets from Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and reserves, driving growth. This strategic move will increase the company's market share, improve operational efficiency, and provide access to new resources, ultimately boosting revenue and profitability.

Processing and Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Tamarack Valley Energy's Processing and Other segment is expected to grow driven by increasing oil and gas production, expansion of midstream infrastructure, and strategic marketing initiatives, leading to improved processing and transportation efficiencies.

7. Detailed Products

Light Oil

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. produces high-quality light oil, a type of crude oil with a low density and sulfur content, used as a feedstock for refineries to produce various petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Natural Gas

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. produces natural gas, a fossil fuel used as a clean-burning fuel for power generation, industrial processes, and heating.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. produces NGLs, a group of hydrocarbons that include ethane, propane, butane, and pentane, used as a feedstock for petrochemical plants and as a fuel.

Crude Oil Blending

Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. offers crude oil blending services, which involves mixing different types of crude oil to create a customized blend that meets specific refinery requirements.

8. Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for drilling and extraction services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. is high due to the competitive nature of the oil and gas industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 29.56%
Debt Cost 16.78%
Equity Weight 70.44%
Equity Cost 16.78%
WACC 16.78%
Leverage 41.97%

11. Quality Control: Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Tamarack Valley Energy

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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NuVista Energy

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 8.2

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Vitesse Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
PHX Minerals

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Surge Energy

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
IPC

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.07$

Current Price

8.07$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows