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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Acadian Timber Corp.supplies primary forest products in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern United States.The company operates through two segments, NB Timberlands and Maine Timberlands.


Its products include softwood and hardwood sawlogs, pulpwood, and biomass by-products.The company owns and manages approximately 1.1 million acres of freehold timberlands in New Brunswick and Maine; and provides timber services relating to approximately 1.3 million acres of Crown licensed timberlands in New Brunswick.Acadian Timber Corp.


is headquartered in New Brunswick, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ADN

Recent performance of Acadian Timber Corp. was driven by solid Q1 2025 earnings, beating expectations with a revenue of CA$24.8m (down 14% from 1Q 2024). The company's first-quarter results showed a decrease in revenue, but a stable cash flow and a strong dividend yield of up to 9.8% made it an attractive option for investors seeking stability and income potential. Additionally, the election of directors, including Malcolm Cockwell and Heath Eaton, demonstrates the company's commitment to maintaining a strong leadership team.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Acadian Timber's Q2 2025 Results: Mixed Performance Amidst Operational Challenges

Acadian Timber reported a revenue of $17.1 million in Q2 2025, down from $21.5 million in the same period last year, with earnings per share (EPS) of $0.1486, missing analyst estimates of $0.25. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 14%, significantly lower than the 50% margin in Q2 2024, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 million. The net income was $2.7 million, down from $7.9 million in Q2 2024.

Publication Date: Sep -13

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline:: Timber sales dropped to $17.1M in Q2 2025 from $21.5M in Q2 2024, with a 13% volume reduction excluding biomass.
  • Regional Performance:: New Brunswick generated $14.4M in sales with stable prices, while Maine’s sales fell to $2.7M (-59% YoY) due to weather and logging transitions.
  • Margin Compression:: Adjusted EBITDA fell to $2.4M (14% margin) from $20.6M (50% margin), driven by lower volumes and higher fixed costs in Maine.
  • Carbon Credit Impact:: Q2 2025 had no carbon credit sales ($19.7M in Q2 2024), affecting net income and free cash flow ($800K vs. $8.4M prior year).

Regional Performance

The company's regional performance varied, with New Brunswick generating $14.4 million in sales due to strong softwood demand and higher harvesting capacity. In contrast, Maine's sales were $2.7 million, a 59% decline due to weather disruptions and challenges in transitioning to internal logging. New Brunswick's adjusted EBITDA was $4 million with a 27% margin, while Maine's EBITDA turned negative, with a -35% margin due to higher fixed costs associated with the internal logging ramp-up.

Operational Challenges and Future Outlook

Acadian Timber faced operational challenges in Maine, including prolonged wet weather and higher costs associated with the transition to internal logging. However, the company anticipates improved production in Maine in the second half of 2025, supported by workforce expansion and training. The long-term outlook remains positive, driven by housing market stability and renewable energy projects, despite near-term weakness in pulpwood demand.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a P/E ratio of 22.02, P/B ratio of 0.92, and dividend yield of 8.54%, Acadian Timber's valuation reflects a mix of growth expectations and income appeal. The company's free cash flow yield is 1.94%, and its ROIC is 1.63%, indicating room for improvement in capital efficiency. The net debt to EBITDA ratio stands at 4.5, highlighting the need for careful management of leverage.

Carbon Credits and Sustainability

The absence of carbon credit sales in Q2 2025, which contributed $19.7 million in Q2 2024, is due to protocol transitions expected to yield higher-value credits in the future. Acadian Timber remains committed to sustainable forest management and is focused on safety and operational efficiency.

3. NewsRoom

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Insider Spends CA$144k Buying More Shares In Acadian Timber

Nov -13

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We Think That There Are More Issues For Acadian Timber (TSE:ADN) Than Just Sluggish Earnings

Nov -06

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Acadian Timber Corp. Reports Third Quarter Results

Oct -29

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TSX Closer: Up More Than 500 Pts As Gold and Silver Shine, and Desjardins Plays Down Impact of Latest Targeted U.S. Tariffs

Oct -14

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Notice of 2025 Third Quarter Results Conference Call and Webcast for Analysts and Investors

Oct -10

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TSX Closer: The Index Posts Its Second Straight Record Finish, the First Above 30,000; Rosie Fund Update

Sep -30

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With 49% ownership, Acadian Timber Corp. (TSE:ADN) insiders have a lot riding on the company's future

Sep -28

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Acadian Timber Corp. Announces $2.5M Investment in UNB’s Digital Forestry Program

Sep -22

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.83%)

6. Segments

New Brunswick Timberlands

Expected Growth: 4.83%

New Brunswick Timberlands' 4.83% growth is driven by increasing demand for lumber and wood products, favorable weather conditions, and strategic harvesting practices. Additionally, Acadian Timber Corp.'s focus on sustainable forestry management and certification programs has improved yields and enhanced market competitiveness.

Maine Timberlands

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Maine Timberlands' 4.83% growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable forestry products, favorable weather conditions, and strategic harvesting practices. Additionally, Acadian Timber Corp.'s efficient operations and cost management contribute to the segment's growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on certification and environmental stewardship enhances its reputation, attracting environmentally conscious customers and supporting long-term growth.

7. Detailed Products

Sawlogs

High-quality sawlogs used for lumber production, available in various species and grades

Pulpwood

Softwood and hardwood pulpwood used for paper, packaging, and tissue products

Biomass

Wood fiber used as a renewable energy source for heat and power generation

Wood Chips

Wood chips used for pulp and paper production, landscaping, and gardening

Timberlands

Managed forests and woodland areas for sustainable timber harvesting

8. Acadian Timber Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Acadian Timber Corp. is medium due to the availability of alternative products such as steel and concrete.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Acadian Timber Corp. is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Acadian Timber Corp. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's moderate dependence on them.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Acadian Timber Corp. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the timber industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Acadian Timber Corp. is high due to the competitive nature of the timber industry, with multiple players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 24.86%
Debt Cost 4.07%
Equity Weight 75.14%
Equity Cost 8.28%
WACC 7.23%
Leverage 33.08%

11. Quality Control: Acadian Timber Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Semapa

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Acadian Timber

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Jewett-Cameron Trading

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Clearwater Paper

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Mativ

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 1.8

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Interfor

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.66$

Current Price

15.66$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows