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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Athabasca Oil Corporation engages in the exploration, development, and production of light and thermal oil resource plays in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin in Alberta, Canada.The company operates through Thermal Oil and Light Oil segments.Its principal properties are in the Greater Placid and Greater Kaybob areas near the Town of Fox Creek in northwestern Alberta; and the Leismer and Hangingstone projects located in the Athabasca region of northeastern Alberta.


The company produces light and medium crude oil, tight oil, conventional natural gas, shale gas, and natural gas liquids; and bitumen from sand and carbonate rock formations.As of December 31, 2021, it held approximately 889,000 net acres of mineral resource leases, licenses, and permits, which include approximately 347,000 net acres of oil sands leases and permits, and approximately 337,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in the Athabasca region of northwestern Alberta; approximately 204,000 net acres of petroleum and natural gas leases in northwestern Alberta; and had an interest in approximately 254 gross wells of bitumen, crude oil, and natural gas.The company was formerly known as Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.


and changed its name to Athabasca Oil Corporation in May 2012.Athabasca Oil Corporation was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ATH

Athabasca Oil's recent performance was negatively impacted by a price target cut to C$6.00 by BMO Capital Markets, citing reduced valuation multiples for the company. Despite reporting record cash flow and strong return of capital in its Q4 earnings, investors may be cautious due to the lower price target. The company's focus on maximizing cash flow per share growth through share buybacks is a positive development, as it aims to direct 100% of free cash flow to this initiative.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

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Institutional investors return to Canadian E&Ps in Q3; buying selective, BMO Says

Nov -19

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Athabasca Oil Announces 2025 Third Quarter Results Highlighted by Consistent Operational Performance, Continued Share Buybacks and a Pristine Financial Position

Oct -30

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There May Be Underlying Issues With The Quality Of Athabasca Oil's (TSE:ATH) Earnings

Aug -01

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Athabasca Oil Second Quarter 2025 Earnings: EPS: CA$0.11 (vs CA$0.17 in 2Q 2024)

Jul -26

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Athabasca Oil Announces 2025 Second Quarter Results Highlighted by Strong Operational Results, Continued Share Buybacks and a Pristine Financial Position

Jul -24

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Is Athabasca Oil Corporation's (TSE:ATH) Latest Stock Performance A Reflection Of Its Financial Health?

Jun -25

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Athabasca Oil (TSE:ATH) Posted Healthy Earnings But There Are Some Other Factors To Be Aware Of

May -15

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Athabasca Oil First Quarter 2025 Earnings: EPS: CA$0.14 (vs CA$0.068 in 1Q 2024)

May -10

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.82%)

6. Segments

Thermal Oil

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Athabasca Oil Corporation's Thermal Oil segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for heavy oil, improved operational efficiency, and strategic investments in thermal oil projects. Additionally, favorable crude oil prices, growing production volumes, and effective cost management contribute to the segment's growth.

Light Oil

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Athabasca Oil Corporation's 4.83% growth in Light Oil is driven by increased production from its thermal oil projects, improved operational efficiencies, and a favorable pricing environment. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction initiatives and strategic investments in its asset base have contributed to this growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.43%

Athabasca Oil Corporation's 4.43% growth is driven by increased production volumes from its thermal oil operations, improved pricing due to higher benchmark crude oil prices, and reduced operating expenses through cost optimization initiatives. Additionally, the company's strategic focus on debt reduction and capital allocation towards high-return projects has contributed to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Light Oil

Athabasca Oil Corporation's light oil is a high-quality, low-sulfur crude oil extracted from its thermal in-situ operations.

Heavy Oil

Athabasca Oil Corporation's heavy oil is a thick, viscous crude oil extracted from its thermal in-situ operations.

Natural Gas

Athabasca Oil Corporation's natural gas is a clean-burning fossil fuel extracted from its conventional and unconventional reservoirs.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Athabasca Oil Corporation's NGLs are a group of hydrocarbons extracted from natural gas, including ethane, propane, and butane.

8. Athabasca Oil Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Athabasca Oil Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes, as alternative energy sources such as wind and solar power are becoming increasingly competitive.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Athabasca Oil Corporation has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, giving the company an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Athabasca Oil Corporation relies on a few key suppliers for its operations, giving them some bargaining power, but the company's size and scale also give it negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge Athabasca Oil Corporation.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry for Athabasca Oil Corporation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 10.36%
Debt Cost 11.88%
Equity Weight 89.64%
Equity Cost 14.85%
WACC 14.54%
Leverage 11.55%

11. Quality Control: Athabasca Oil Corporation passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Athabasca Oil

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Birchcliff Energy

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Advantage Energy

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kelt Exploration

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Vermilion Energy

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Pine Cliff Energy

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.81$

Current Price

7.81$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows