Kelt Exploration Ltd. (KEL.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Kelt Exploration Ltd., an oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas resources primarily in northwestern Alberta and northeastern British Columbia, Canada.The company markets its crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids production primarily to third party marketing companies.As of December 31, 2021, it had proved developed producing reserves of 43.9 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE); total proved reserves of 134.1 million BOE; and total proved plus probable reserves of 254.1 million BOE.

Kelt Exploration Ltd.was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on KEL

Kelt Exploration's recent performance has been positively driven by the commissioning of the Albright Gas Plant near its Wembley/Pipestone operations in Alberta. The plant, owned by CSV Midstream Solutions Corp., enables Kelt to resume and increase gas deliveries after previous delays. This development is expected to significantly boost Kelt's operational capacity and production. Additionally, a modest cut to its annual guidance due to earlier setbacks does not seem to have deterred investor optimism. The company's progress in this third-party gas plant has been a key factor in its recent momentum.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	7.89
Change Percentage	-0.75%
Open	7.99
Previous Close	7.95
Market Cap ( Millions)	1573
Volume	460513
Year High	8.22
Year Low	4.9
M A 50	7.05
M A 200	6.78

FCF Yield	-8.07%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	6.87%
Debt / Equity	13.66%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	56.82%
Price To Book	1.43
Price Earnings Ratio	21.6
Price To FCF	-12.39
Price To sales	3.28
EV / EBITDA	6.4

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Kelt Reports Financial and Operating Results for the Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025

Nov -13

Source:

Why Kelt Exploration (TSX:KEL) Is Up 15.6% After Albright Gas Plant Commissioning Near Wembley

Nov -08

Source:

Undiscovered Gems In Canada To Explore This November 2025

Nov -06

Source:

Kelt Provides Update on Start-Up of Third-Party Gas Plant at Wembley

Nov -04

Source:

Spotlighting Canada's Undiscovered Gems This October 2025

Oct -07

Source:

Canadian Hidden Gems: 3 Promising Small Caps with Strong Potential

Sep -04

Source:

Kelt Provides Update on Start-Up of Third-Party Gas Plant at Wembley

Aug -22

Source:

Kelt Exploration Second Quarter 2025 Earnings: EPS: CA$0.16 (vs CA$0.056 in 2Q 2024)

Aug -09

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.67%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 4.37%

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s 4.37% growth in oil production is driven by successful drilling programs in its Montney and Duvernay plays, increased well productivity, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, improved operational efficiencies, cost savings, and a favorable commodity price environment have contributed to the company's growth.

Gas

Expected Growth: 4.73%

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s 4.73% gas growth is driven by increased production from its Montney and Duvernay formations, improved drilling and completion efficiencies, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, favorable Canadian gas prices and a strong hedge book have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on cost reduction and operational optimization has also supported the growth momentum.

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s 4.83% growth in Natural Gas Liquids is driven by increased drilling activities in high-liquids-rich Montney and Duvernay formations, improved well completion designs, and enhanced oil recovery techniques. Additionally, strategic acquisitions and partnerships have expanded the company's asset base, contributing to the growth.

Royalties

Expected Growth: 5.83%

The 5.83% growth in royalties from Kelt Exploration Ltd. is driven by increased oil and gas production, improved commodity prices, and a favorable contract structure. Additionally, Kelt's focus on high-margin assets and efficient operations have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the company's strategic acquisitions and divestitures have also enhanced its royalty revenue stream.

Marketing

Expected Growth: 4.73%

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s 4.73% growth in marketing is driven by increasing demand for oil and gas, successful implementation of digital marketing strategies, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on customer relationships, competitive pricing, and innovative product offerings have contributed to its growth.

Gas Processing and Other

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s Gas Processing and Other segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increased natural gas production, improved processing capacity, and higher realized prices. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions and investments in infrastructure have enhanced operational efficiency, contributing to the segment's growth.

Oil Treating and Other

Expected Growth: 4.4%

Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s 4.4% growth in Oil Treating and Other segment is driven by increased production volumes, improved operational efficiency, and strategic cost management. Additionally, favorable commodity prices, successful drilling programs, and effective hedging strategies have contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Kelt Exploration Ltd. is involved in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil, which is a type of fossil fuel used as a primary energy source.

Natural Gas

Kelt Exploration Ltd. is also involved in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, a fossil fuel used for electricity generation, heating, and cooking.

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Kelt Exploration Ltd. produces NGLs, which are a group of hydrocarbons that are extracted from natural gas and used as a feedstock for the production of plastics, fertilizers, and other petrochemicals.

Condensate

Kelt Exploration Ltd. produces condensate, a type of light oil that is used as a feedstock for the production of petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel.

8. Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Kelt Exploration Ltd. is moderate due to the availability of alternative energy sources.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low for Kelt Exploration Ltd. as the company operates in a niche market with limited customer base.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate for Kelt Exploration Ltd. as the company relies on a few key suppliers for its operations.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high for Kelt Exploration Ltd. due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high for Kelt Exploration Ltd. due to the competitive nature of the oil and gas industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	0.14%
Debt Cost	14.37%
Equity Weight	99.86%
Equity Cost	14.37%
WACC	14.37%
Leverage	0.15%

11. Quality Control: Kelt Exploration Ltd. passed 6 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Athabasca Oil

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.9

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Birchcliff Energy

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Advantage Energy

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Kelt Exploration

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Vermilion Energy

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Pine Cliff Energy

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

36.56%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

14.37%

Kelt Exploration Ltd. - CA4882951060

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on KEL

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Growth

Lower Yield

Average Quality

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Stable Momentum

Fairly Valued

Medium Volatility

Strong Momentum

Earnings Beats

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.67%)

6. Segments

Oil

Expected Growth: 4.37%

Gas

Expected Growth: 4.73%

Natural Gas Liquids

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Royalties

Expected Growth: 5.83%

Marketing

Expected Growth: 4.73%

Gas Processing and Other

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Oil Treating and Other

Expected Growth: 4.4%

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs)

Condensate

8. Kelt Exploration Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Kelt Exploration Ltd. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.89$

Current Price

7.89$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA