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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ECN Capital Corp.originates, manages, and advises on prime consumer credit portfolios in North America.It operates through Secured Consumer Loans - Triad Financial Services and Source One; and Consumer Credit Card and Related Unsecured Consumer Loans - KG segments.


The company provides secured consumer loan portfolios, including manufactured home, marine, and recreational vehicle loans; and consumer credit card portfolios that are focused on co-branded credit cards and related financial products.It serves banks, credit unions, life insurance companies, and pension and investment funds.The company was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ECN

ECN Capital Corp.'s recent performance was driven by strong revenue growth, with a 114% increase to US$169.7 million in full-year 2024 results, as well as significant debt reduction. The company's Q4 2024 results showed adjusted net income of $4.4 million, with a robust segment performance despite temporary setbacks from severe weather. A notable highlight was the company's ability to reduce its debt, indicating a positive trend for the business.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ECN Capital Reports Q2 2025 Results: A Mixed Bag

ECN Capital reported adjusted per-share income of $0.04, in line with consensus, and originations totaled $804 million for the second quarter, with adjusted EBITDA of $31.5 million and adjusted operating income of $17 million. The company's EPS came out at $0.05446, slightly below estimates of $0.0555. Revenue for the quarter was not explicitly stated, but we can infer that the company is making progress in its turnaround efforts, particularly in the sales team, which has reduced turnaround time from 2-3 days to 2-3 hours.

Publication Date: Aug -19

📋 Highlights
  • Triad Financial Record Originations: Achieved $436 million in originations, a 40% YoY increase.
  • Managed Assets Growth: Reached $6 billion, up 15% in Q2 with a 16% CAGR over 7 years.
  • Co-CEOs Appointment: Lance Hull and Cody Pearce hired as Triad Co-CEOs to drive strategy; Source One reported $60 million in July originations.
  • RV & Marine Guidance: Revised to $14–$18 million adjusted operating income, impacted by $0.75–$1 million in upgrade costs.
  • Turnaround Progress: Sales team reduced turnaround time from 2–3 days to 2–3 hours; July originations hit $60 million near budget target.

Financial Performance

The company's Triad Financial business achieved record originations of $436 million, a 40% year-over-year increase, and managed assets in the servicing business grew to over $6 billion, a 15% increase in Q2, representing a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the past 7 years. Servicing revenue now accounts for 20% of the company's total revenue. Adjusted operating income for RV & Marine was $3.1 million, impacted by industry headwinds and a delayed asset sale.

Segment Performance

The RV & Marine segment is undergoing an upgrade strategy, which incurred costs of $750,000 to $1 million, with most of it incurred in H1, and the rest to be incurred in H2, which will be offset with increased originations and margins. The asset sales from Source One were delayed due to lower originations in the first half but will move in H2 at better margins. The company's Manufactured Housing Finance guidance is reaffirmed at $78 million to $90 million.

Valuation and Outlook

At current prices, ECN Capital trades at a P/E Ratio of 41.03, a P/B Ratio of 2.79, and a P/S Ratio of 2.62. The stock also offers a Dividend Yield of 2.02% and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 13.8%. According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks">Bloomberg</a>, analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 12.1%. With a Net Debt / EBITDA of 12.86, the company's valuation seems to be pricing in significant growth expectations.

Turnaround Efforts

The company has made significant progress in its turnaround efforts, particularly in the sales team, which has reduced turnaround time from 2-3 days to 2-3 hours. The July start was strong, with $60 million in sales, almost meeting the aggressive budget. The new sales team, led by Joe, has enhanced product development and execution on process. The company has also made strategic hires during the downturn, similar to those made at IFG and Triad.

Growth Prospects

The CEO is optimistic about the growth prospects, particularly in the commercial side, where Cody Pearce, with expertise from Cascade and YES Communities, will focus on turning back on growth. The Blackstone relationship was renewed, with terms of 12-24 months, and the company is overfunded by approximately $1.5 billion.

3. NewsRoom

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ECN Capital Corp (ECNCF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth Amid Rising ...

Nov -14

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ECN Capital to be taken private in deal led by Warburg Pincus

Nov -13

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ECN Capital Agrees to be Acquired by an Investor Group led by Warburg Pincus

Nov -13

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ECN Capital enters into definitive agreement to be acquired by an investor group led by Warburg Pincus

Nov -13

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ECN Capital Reports US$0.06 in Adjusted Net Income per Common Share in Q3-2025

Nov -13

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ECN Capital Reschedules Q3-2025 Conference Call

Nov -12

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ECN Capital Second Quarter 2025 Earnings: Revenues Beat Expectations

Aug -10

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ECN Capital Downgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James

Aug -08

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.88%)

6. Segments

Manufactured Housing Finance

Expected Growth: 7.88%

ECN Capital Corp.'s Manufactured Housing Finance segment growth of 7.88% is driven by increasing demand for affordable housing, government initiatives supporting low-income families, and the company's strategic expansion into new markets. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong balance sheet, allowing for competitive pricing and efficient operations.

Recreational Vehicle and Marine Finance

Expected Growth: 7.88%

ECN Capital Corp.'s 7.88% growth in Recreational Vehicle and Marine Finance is driven by increasing consumer spending on outdoor activities, rising demand for luxury RVs and boats, and strategic partnerships with manufacturers and dealerships. Additionally, low interest rates and government incentives for outdoor recreation have contributed to the segment's growth.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 8.9%

ECN Capital Corp.'s 8.9% growth is driven by its diversified portfolio of commercial and consumer finance businesses, strong originations, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and expansion into new markets also contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Commercial Finance

Provides financing solutions to businesses, including equipment financing, transportation financing, and inventory financing.

Vendor Finance

Offers financing solutions to vendors and manufacturers, enabling them to provide financing options to their customers.

Home Improvement Finance

Provides financing solutions to homeowners for home improvement projects, such as roofing, HVAC, and solar installations.

Industrial Equipment Finance

Offers financing solutions for industrial equipment, including construction, manufacturing, and energy equipment.

Rail Finance

Provides financing solutions for railcars, locomotives, and other rail-related equipment.

Aircraft Finance

Offers financing solutions for aircraft, including commercial and business aircraft.

8. ECN Capital Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

ECN Capital Corp. operates in a niche market, but there are some substitutes available. However, the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty mitigate the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

ECN Capital Corp.'s customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's diversified customer base and lack of concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

ECN Capital Corp. has a moderate level of dependence on its suppliers, but the company's scale and negotiating power help to mitigate the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in ECN Capital Corp.'s industry, including regulatory hurdles and the need for significant capital investment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The industry in which ECN Capital Corp. operates is highly competitive, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 81.41%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 18.59%
Equity Cost 10.19%
WACC 5.11%
Leverage 438.07%

11. Quality Control: ECN Capital Corp. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
ECN Capital

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
LendingClub

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Mill City Ventures III

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 1.6

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
CPI Card Group

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Consumer Portfolio Services

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Nicholas Financial

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 8.2

Growth: 0.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.05$

Current Price

3.05$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows