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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Kinaxis Inc.provides cloud-based subscription software for supply chain operations in the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, The Netherlands, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Singapore, France, Ireland, Germany, India, and Canada.It offers Kinaxis, a cloud-based software-as-a-service platform, which provides advanced planning, sales and operations planning, supply and demand planning, inventory management, and command and control center services.


The company also provides professional services, including business transformation, implementation, and continuous learning services; and support services.It serves technology and electronics, aerospace and defense, life sciences and pharmaceuticals, industrial, automotive, consumer products, and retail markets.The company was formerly known as webPLAN Inc.


and changed its name to Kinaxis Inc.in May 2005.Kinaxis Inc.


was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on KXS

Kinaxis Inc.'s recent performance faced challenges due to increasing competition and potential volatility in the Canadian market. Despite a strong Q2 2025 earnings report, with revenue up 15% year-over-year to $136.4m, the company's growth prospects are being closely watched by investors. The partnership with Shimadzu Corporation and 100 Handshakes, as well as the new collaboration with Workday, may not have provided the desired boost. Elevated inflation and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have added to market uncertainty.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Kinaxis Posts Record Q3 with Strong ARR and SaaS Growth

Kinaxis reported a record-breaking Q3 with Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growing 17% year-over-year to $407 million. SaaS revenue was $92 million, up 17% or 15% in constant currency. The company's adjusted EBITDA was a record $33.9 million, with a margin of 25%. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.58, significantly higher than the previous year's $0.23. The actual EPS was $1.29, beating analyst estimates of $0.92.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Record ARR Growth:: Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased 17% YoY to $407 million, driven by strong expansion and new customer acquisitions.
  • Strong SaaS Performance:: SaaS revenue reached $92 million, up 17% YoY (15% constant currency), with guidance raised to 15-17% growth for 2025.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Surge:: Adjusted EBITDA hit $33.9 million, with a 25% margin, and margin guidance raised to 24-26%, likely achieving 25% a year early.
  • Enterprise Customer Wins:: Added high-profile clients like Renault, Repsol, and Seiko Epson, with 50% of ARR growth from expansion within existing accounts.
  • Share Repurchase Activity:: Repurchased 467,000 shares ($61 million) in H1 2025, with a new plan allowing 1.4 million shares over 12 months to boost shareholder value.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The company's SaaS business growth was a key driver of the results, offsetting the effects of professional services market dynamics and the shift from subscription term license revenue to SaaS. Kinaxis raised its SaaS growth guidance to 15-17% and 14-16% in constant currency. The company also increased its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 24-26%, likely achieving its 25% goal a year early.

Customer Acquisition and Expansion

Kinaxis added many new customers in the quarter, including enterprise-class companies such as Renault, Repsol, and Seiko Epson. Half of the gross additions to ARR came from expansion business with existing customers. The company's net retention rate (NRR) is trending upwards, driven by expansion business, with a strong gross dollar retention.

Valuation and Growth Expectations

With a P/E Ratio of 140.44 and an EV/EBITDA of 60.58, the market is pricing in high growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 14.5%. The company's strong ARR growth and expanding margins should support its valuation. The P/S Ratio is 6.74, indicating a premium valuation relative to sales.

Strategic Developments and Outlook

Kinaxis announced partnerships with Databricks, Infor, and Workday Adaptive Planning to enhance supply chain orchestration. The company is confident in its AI strategy, which includes enhancing Maestro's core capabilities and extending core capabilities within the enterprise. The company expects to end 2025 toward the midpoint of the range for reported results and toward the bottom end in constant currency.

Operational Efficiency and Investments

The company's trailing 12-month free cash flow margin remained strong at 19.8%. Kinaxis is investing in sales capacity and business development, focusing on quality and productivity. The company sees a significant return on investment in sales and marketing spend, particularly with additional spending on partners and go-to-market efforts.

3. NewsRoom

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3 TSX Stocks Trading At Estimated Discounts Up To 43.7%

Dec -02

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RBC Says Shopify, Constellation, and Kinaxis "Most Compelling Investment Ideas" in its Canadian Technology Coverage Universe

Dec -01

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TSX Stocks That May Be Trading Below Estimated Value In December 2025

Dec -01

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TSX Value Picks Featuring Badger Infrastructure Solutions And Two More Stocks With Estimated Discounts

Nov -26

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TSX Stocks That May Be Trading Below Estimated Value In November 2025

Nov -24

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Kinaxis Inc.'s (TSE:KXS) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 67% Above Its Share Price

Nov -22

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71% of Global Businesses Have Accelerated AI Adoption Amid Tariffs, Inflation and Uncertainty, Finds Economist Study Commissioned by Kinaxis

Nov -10

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Kinaxis Inc. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For Next Year

Nov -07

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.90%)

6. Segments

Software as a Service

Expected Growth: 11.95%

Kinaxis Inc.'s 11.95% growth in Software as a Service (SaaS) is driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, rising demand for real-time visibility and analytics, and expansion into new industries and geographies. Additionally, the company's AI-powered platform and strategic partnerships are contributing to its growth momentum.

Professional Services

Expected Growth: 12.07%

Kinaxis Inc.'s 12.07% growth in Professional Services is driven by increasing demand for supply chain management solutions, expansion into new industries, and strategic partnerships. The company's AI-powered platform, RapidResponse, is also a key growth driver, enabling clients to make informed decisions and optimize their supply chains.

Subscription Term Licenses

Expected Growth: 11.7%

Kinaxis Inc.'s Subscription Term Licenses growth of 11.7% is driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, expansion into new industries, and growing demand for real-time visibility and agility in global supply chains. Additionally, the company's investments in AI-powered analytics and customer success programs have contributed to the growth.

Maintenance and Support

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Kinaxis Inc.'s Maintenance and Support growth of 10.27% is driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based supply chain management solutions, expansion into new industries, and growing demand for real-time visibility and analytics. Additionally, the company's focus on customer success and retention, as well as its strategic partnerships, contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

RapidResponse

A cloud-based, SaaS platform that enables companies to concurrently plan, monitor, and respond to changes in their supply chain in real-time.

RapidResponse for Supply Chain Planning

A module that enables companies to create and manage supply chain plans, including demand planning, supply planning, and inventory optimization.

RapidResponse for Inventory Optimization

A module that enables companies to optimize their inventory levels, reduce stockouts, and improve service levels.

RapidResponse for Order Fulfillment

A module that enables companies to manage their order fulfillment processes, including order allocation, shipment planning, and logistics management.

RapidResponse for Supply Chain Visibility

A module that enables companies to gain real-time visibility into their supply chain operations, including shipment tracking, inventory levels, and supply chain disruptions.

Kinaxis Services

A range of services, including implementation, consulting, and training, designed to help companies get the most out of their RapidResponse investment.

8. Kinaxis Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Kinaxis Inc. operates in a niche market, providing cloud-based supply chain management software. While there are substitutes available, they are not as comprehensive as Kinaxis' offerings, reducing the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Kinaxis Inc. has a diverse customer base, and no single customer accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, reducing the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Kinaxis Inc. is not heavily dependent on a single supplier, and its cloud-based software reduces the reliance on physical components, minimizing the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The supply chain management software market is attractive, and new entrants may be drawn to it. However, Kinaxis Inc.'s established brand and comprehensive offerings create barriers to entry, making it challenging for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The supply chain management software market is competitive, with several established players. However, Kinaxis Inc.'s focus on cloud-based solutions and its strong customer relationships help it maintain a competitive edge.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 10.22%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 89.78%
Equity Cost 7.81%
WACC 7.41%
Leverage 11.39%

11. Quality Control: Kinaxis Inc. passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Kinaxis

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 0.7

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Dayforce

A-Score: 4.3/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.7

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Lightspeed Commerce

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.7

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Bill.com

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 9.4

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.0

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Asana

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 2.0

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Instructure Holdings

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

176.3$

Current Price

176.3$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows