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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Lundin Mining Corporation, a diversified base metals mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and mining of mineral properties in Brazil, Chile, Portugal, Sweden, and the United States.It primarily produces copper, zinc, nickel, and gold, as well as lead, silver, and other metals.The company holds 100% interests in the Chapada mine located in Brazil; the Neves-Corvo mine located in Portugal; the Eagle mine located in the United States; and the Zinkgruvan mine located in Sweden.


It also holds 80% interests in the Candelaria and Ojos del Salado mining complex located in Chile.The company was formerly known as South Atlantic Ventures Ltd.and changed its name to Lundin Mining Corporation in August 2004.


Lundin Mining Corporation was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on LUN

Lundin Mining Corporation's recent performance was driven by several positive factors. The company's upgraded rating to Buy from Hold by TD Securities, citing its strong position to navigate macro uncertainty, contributed to the positive sentiment. Additionally, the sale of Neves-Corvo and Zinkgruvan operations to Boliden for $1.40 billion provided a significant cash influx. Furthermore, the announcement of the 2024 Sustainability Report highlighted the company's commitment to environmental and social responsibility. The initial Mineral Resource estimate at Filo Del Sol, demonstrating one of the world's largest copper, gold, and silver resources, also generated excitement.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Lundin Mining's Strong Q3 2025 Results: Operational and Financial Success

Lundin Mining reported a robust third quarter in 2025, with revenue exceeding $1 billion, driven primarily by copper sales, which accounted for 79% of the revenue mix. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin was 49%, resulting in $490 million in adjusted EBITDA. However, the actual EPS of $0.2507 fell short of analyst estimates of $0.507. Adjusted operating cash flow was $383 million, and the company generated solid free cash flow from operations of $169 million. With a current P/E Ratio of 1111.1 and an EV/EBITDA of 12.28, the market seems to be pricing in significant growth expectations.

Publication Date: Nov -14

📋 Highlights
  • Increased Copper Production Guidance:: Raised by 11,500 tons to 319,000–337,000 tons, driven by Caserones’ performance with 35,300 tons produced in Q3.
  • Strong Financial Performance:: Generated $1.0 billion in revenue, $490 million adjusted EBITDA, and $383 million adjusted operating cash flow, with 49% EBITDA margin.
  • Lower Cash Costs:: Consolidated cash costs narrowed to $1.85–$2.00 per pound, with C1 cash cost at $1.61 per pound in Q3, a $0.125 reduction from prior guidance.
  • Vicuña Project Advancement:: Integrated technical report expected Q1 2026, targeting a clear path to top 10 global copper producer status by 2026–2027.
  • 2026 CapEx Plan:: Estimated $650–$700 million, with sustaining CapEx at ~$400 million and potential net debt-free status by year-end.

Operational Performance

The company's operational success was evident in its copper production, which totaled 87,400 tons, with Candelaria and Caserones producing 37,000 tons and 35,300 tons, respectively. The strong performance at Caserones, particularly in cathode production, led to an increase in copper guidance by approximately 11,500 tons to a range of 319,000 to 337,000 tons. The company's safety performance was also noteworthy, with a total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.29, the lowest in the company's last 10 years.

Growth Initiatives

Lundin Mining is advancing several near- and mid-term growth opportunities, including the Caserones cathode growth opportunity and the Vicuña project. The company has updated its hydrometallurgical model for the dump leach and anticipates cathode production of approximately 24,000 tons for the full year. For Vicuña, the company is progressing with field activities, including drilling, trade-off studies, and permitting, and is tracking to guidance of $250 million for the full year. The integrated technical report for Vicuña is expected to be completed in Q1 2026, outlining a clear path to become a top 10 global producer.

Financial Position and Guidance

The company's financial position continues to strengthen, with expectations to be essentially net debt-free by the end of the year. Lundin generated $383 million in adjusted operating cash flow and $169 million in free cash flow from operations. The company's CapEx plan for 2026 is expected to be around $650 million to $700 million, excluding any other FIDs. Sustaining CapEx for the group, excluding Vicuña, is expected to be similar to the current run rate of around $400 million.

Outlook

With a robust operational and financial performance, Lundin Mining is well-positioned to deliver on its guidance and growth initiatives. Key catalysts over the next 4 to 6 months include a RIGI application and an integrated technical report for Vicuña. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 4.9% for next year, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance.

3. NewsRoom

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Has Lundin Mining’s 105% Rally in 2025 Pushed Its Valuation Too Far?

Dec -03

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RBC Says Copper Prices Surge to New Highs on Tight Supply, Trade Disruptions

Dec -02

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Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Southern Copper, Lundin Mining, Coeur Mining and Centrus Energy

Dec -01

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Lundin Mining Cuts Share Count by 808,000 in November After NCIB Buybacks

Dec -01

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Supreme Court Greenlights Class Action Which Might Change The Case For Investing In Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN)

Dec -01

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Lundin Mining (TSX:LUN): Valuation in Focus After Supreme Court Ruling Advances Class Action

Dec -01

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Lundin Mining Announces an Update Regarding the 2017 Class Action

Nov -28

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4 Non-Ferrous Metal Mining Stocks to Consider From a Thriving Industry

Nov -27

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.71%)

6. Segments

Candelaria

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Candelaria's 4.65% growth is driven by increased copper production, improved ore grades, and enhanced operational efficiency. Additionally, Lundin Mining's strategic investments in mine development and exploration have contributed to the growth. The mine's proximity to existing infrastructure and favorable geological conditions have also supported the expansion.

Caserones

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Caserones' 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and successful execution of debottlenecking projects. Additionally, Lundin Mining's focus on cost reduction initiatives and exploration activities have contributed to the segment's growth. The mine's high-grade copper ore and proximity to infrastructure also support its expansion.

Chapada

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Chapada's 4.83% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, strong operational performance, and successful cost-saving initiatives. Additionally, the mine's life extension project and exploration activities are expected to contribute to future growth. The Brazilian real's depreciation against the US dollar also positively impacts revenue.

Neves-Corvo

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Neves-Corvo's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing copper prices, successful zinc expansion projects, and improved operational efficiencies. The mine's high-grade copper and zinc reserves, combined with Lundin Mining's cost-reduction initiatives, have also contributed to the growth. Additionally, the company's focus on exploration and development of nearby deposits has enhanced the mine's production potential.

Eagle

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Eagle mine's 4.65% growth driven by increased nickel and copper production, improved ore grades, and enhanced mining efficiency. Strong demand for electric vehicle batteries and stainless steel supports nickel prices, while copper benefits from infrastructure development and renewable energy growth.

Zinkgruvan

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Zinkgruvan's 4.65% growth is driven by increased zinc prices, improved ore grades, and enhanced mining efficiency. The mine's proximity to existing infrastructure and low operating costs also contribute to its growth. Additionally, Lundin Mining's focus on operational excellence and exploration initiatives have optimized production and extended the mine's lifespan.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Lundin Mining Corporation is a significant producer of copper, a highly conductive and ductile metal used in various industrial applications, including electrical wiring, plumbing, and architecture.

Zinc

Lundin Mining Corporation extracts zinc, a versatile metal used in galvanizing other metals, die-casting, and as an alloying element in various industrial processes.

Nickel

Lundin Mining Corporation produces nickel, a corrosion-resistant metal used in stainless steel production, alloys, and electroplating.

Gold

Lundin Mining Corporation extracts gold, a highly valued precious metal used in jewelry, coins, and other decorative items.

Silver

Lundin Mining Corporation produces silver, a highly conductive and reflective metal used in electronics, solar panels, and jewelry.

8. Lundin Mining Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Lundin Mining Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and minerals in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Lundin Mining Corporation is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Lundin Mining Corporation is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Lundin Mining Corporation is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Lundin Mining Corporation is high due to the competitive nature of the mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 23.05%
Debt Cost 7.25%
Equity Weight 76.95%
Equity Cost 13.03%
WACC 11.70%
Leverage 29.95%

11. Quality Control: Lundin Mining Corporation passed 6 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Boise Cascade

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Lundin Mining

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Steel Dynamics

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Hudbay Minerals

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Capstone Copper

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

25.77$

Current Price

25.77$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows