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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

OceanaGold Corporation, a gold producer, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties.It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits.The company operates the Didipio gold-copper mine located in the Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino provinces on the island of Luzon in the Philippines; the Macraes goldfield mine on the South Island of New Zealand and the Waihi gold mine on the North Island of New Zealand; and the Haile gold mine located in South Carolina, the United States.


OceanaGold Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in South Brisbane, Australia.

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1.b. Last Insights on OGC

OceanaGold Corporation's recent performance has been driven by several positive factors. The company's Q3 2025 earnings report showed record revenue and increased cash flow, highlighting its strategic growth. Additionally, exploration results from its Haile Gold Mine and Wharekirauponga Project in New Zealand revealed high-grade gold intersections, bolstering future underground mining evaluations. The company's expansion into new markets, including a $65 million earn-in deal in Nevada, also contributed to its growth. Institutions and retail investors have taken notice, with the company's fair value estimated at CA$43.08, suggesting potential upside.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. OceanaGold's Strong Q3 2025 Earnings: A Promising Outlook

OceanaGold Corporation reported a record quarterly revenue of $449 million and adjusted EBITDA of $211 million in Q3 2025, driven by its high-grade ore production at Haile and Macraes. The company's earnings per share (EPS) was $0.1701, significantly lower than the estimated $0.888. Despite the EPS miss, the company's financial performance was robust, with a strong balance sheet featuring zero debt and $335 million in cash. OceanaGold's free cash flow yield is approximately 15% on its average market capitalization, indicating a healthy cash generation capability.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Record Financial Performance: Achieved $449 million in quarterly revenue and $211 million in adjusted EBITDA, with a 17% ROCE and 15% free cash flow yield.
  • Share Buyback Expansion: Increased buyback program to $175 million (75% higher), alongside $225 million in projected shareholder returns by year-end.
  • High-Grade Ore Uplift: Q4 production to surge from 30,000 ounces at Haile and 33,000 ounces at Macraes, driven by Ledbetter 3 and improved operations.
  • Strong Balance Sheet: Maintains $335 million in cash and zero debt, supporting organic growth ($45 million for Waihi North) and capital returns.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was also impressive, with Haile's ore production expected to be strong in Q4 due to high-grade ore from Ledbetter 3. Macraes delivered improved gold production of 33,000 ounces in Q3, with a significant uplift expected in Q4. Waihi delivered another strong production quarter, with the underground improvement plan initiated in 2024 positioning the site to deliver gold production around the high end of its guidance range.

Growth Prospects and Exploration

OceanaGold is optimistic about its growth prospects, with ongoing drilling at multiple targets and a potential mine life extension at Macraes. The company is also advancing the Waihi North project, with early works activity commencing and a $45 million investment expected in 2025. The company's exploration prospects are promising, with a focus on defining the size of the ore body and potential opportunities to explore other veins in the region.

Valuation and Return on Capital

OceanaGold's valuation metrics indicate a relatively high P/E Ratio of 42.69 and P/B Ratio of 8.5, suggesting that the market is pricing in a high growth expectation. However, the company's return on capital employed is 17%, with a free cash flow yield of approximately 15%, indicating a healthy return on investment. The company's ROIC is 17.47%, and ROE is 20.71%, further reinforcing its ability to generate attractive returns.

Outlook and Guidance

The company is confident in meeting its full-year guidance and expects a strong Q4 driven by high-grade ore production. OceanaGold is targeting a listing on the New York Stock Exchange in April 2026, which is expected to provide enhanced trading liquidity and access to a wider range of potential investors. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 36.9%, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance.

3. NewsRoom

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OceanaGold (TSX:OGC): Evaluating Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Rally

Nov -29

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OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) Jumps 11.5% After Expanding High-Grade Gold Zone at Wharekirauponga

Nov -28

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Carolina Rush Shareholders Approve OceanaGold Transaction; Upsizes Private Placement

Nov -27

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Update: OceanaGold Gains 2% as Provides Drill Results at Wharekirauponga Project in New Zealand

Nov -25

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OceanaGold Provides Drill Results at Wharekirauponga Project in New Zealand

Nov -25

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OceanaGold Extends High-Grade Mineralization at Wharekirauponga and Receives Draft Decision and Conditions to Approve the Waihi North Project

Nov -25

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3 TSX Stocks Estimated To Be 20.6% To 45.2% Below Intrinsic Value

Nov -17

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OTC Markets Group Welcomes OceanaGold (Philippines), Inc. to OTCQX

Nov -13

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.28%)

6. Segments

Gold Bullion

Expected Growth: 8.5%

OceanaGold Corporation's 8.5% growth in Gold Bullion is driven by increasing gold prices, strong demand from central banks and ETFs, and the company's successful exploration and development of new mines in the Philippines and New Zealand, coupled with operational efficiencies and cost savings.

Gold Concentrate

Expected Growth: 8.0%

OceanaGold Corporation's 8.0% growth in Gold Concentrate is driven by increased production at the Haile Gold Mine, improved gold grades at the Macraes Operation, and higher mill throughput at the Didipio Mine. Additionally, the company's focus on operational efficiencies, cost savings initiatives, and strategic investments in exploration and development projects contribute to its growth momentum.

Copper Concentrate

Expected Growth: 7.5%

OceanaGold's copper concentrate growth driven by increasing gold and copper prices, strong demand from China and India, and the company's expansion projects in the Philippines and New Zealand, coupled with improved operational efficiencies and cost management.

Concentrate Treatment, Refining and Selling Costs

Expected Growth: 6.0%

OceanaGold Corporation's 6.0% growth in Concentrate Treatment, Refining and Selling Costs is driven by increased production volumes, higher gold prices, and improved operating efficiencies. Additionally, investments in process optimization and cost-saving initiatives have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the company's focus on reducing waste and improving recoveries has also positively impacted costs.

Silver

Expected Growth: 9.5%

OceanaGold Corporation's 9.5% growth in silver production is driven by increased ore grades and milling rates at its Haile gold mine in the US, combined with higher production from its Didipio gold-copper mine in the Philippines. Additionally, the company's ongoing exploration and development initiatives are expected to contribute to future growth.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

OceanaGold Corporation is a significant producer of gold, with a focus on sustainable and responsible mining practices.

Copper

The company also produces copper as a by-product of its gold mining operations, with a focus on quality and purity.

Silver

OceanaGold Corporation also produces silver as a by-product of its gold mining operations, with a focus on quality and purity.

Exploration Services

The company offers exploration services to identify and develop new mineral deposits, with a focus on innovative and sustainable practices.

Mining Services

OceanaGold Corporation provides mining services to support its own operations, as well as to third-party clients, with a focus on safety, efficiency, and sustainability.

8. OceanaGold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for OceanaGold Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and mining companies. However, the company's focus on gold mining and its diversified portfolio of assets reduce the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for OceanaGold Corporation is low due to the company's strong market position and the lack of concentration in the gold mining industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for OceanaGold Corporation is medium due to the company's dependence on suppliers for equipment and services. However, the company's scale of operations and diversified supply chain reduce the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for OceanaGold Corporation is low due to the high barriers to entry in the gold mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for OceanaGold Corporation is high due to the competitive nature of the gold mining industry, with many established players competing for market share and resources.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 11.80%
Debt Cost 11.95%
Equity Weight 88.20%
Equity Cost 11.95%
WACC 11.95%
Leverage 13.37%

11. Quality Control: OceanaGold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Perseus Mining

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 8.4

Yield: 1.7

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 9.3

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OceanaGold

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Kinross Gold

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

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Resolute Mining

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 2.4

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.3

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Karora Resources

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 7.4

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

35.55$

Current Price

35.55$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows