Rogers Sugar Inc. (RSI.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Rogers Sugar Inc.engages in refining, packaging, and marketing sugar and maple products.The company operates through two segments, Sugar and Maple Products.

It offers granulated, plantation raw, yellow, brown, organic, icing, maple, stevia, smart sweetener blend, and coconut sugar; and syrups, jam and jelly mixes, and iced tea mixes.The company markets its products to industrial, consumer, and liquid product markets under the Lantic name in Eastern Canada and Rogers name in Western Canada, as well as in the United States and internationally.Rogers Sugar Inc.

is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on RSI

Rogers Sugar Inc.'s recent performance was driven by strong financial results, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $38.3 million in the fourth quarter and $141.6 million for the fiscal year 2024. The company's Sugar and Maple segments contributed to improved profitability, with President and CEO Mike Walton citing better results in both segments. Additionally, the company's dividend yield of up to 6.3% makes it an attractive option for investors seeking steady income.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	5.92
Change Percentage	0.17%
Open	5.92
Previous Close	5.91
Market Cap ( Millions)	758
Volume	146353
Year High	6.49
Year Low	5.22
M A 50	6.27
M A 200	5.87

FCF Yield	13.84%
Dividend Yield	6.08%
ROE	15.96%
Debt / Equity	85.80%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	244.45%
Price To Book	1.71
Price Earnings Ratio	10.93
Price To FCF	7.23
Price To sales	0.58
EV / EBITDA	7.67

2. Rogers Sugar's Sweet Surprise: Earnings Beat Expectations

Rogers Sugar Inc. reported a robust financial performance for fiscal 2025, with adjusted EBITDA surpassing $150 million for the first time in its history. The company's adjusted net earnings for fiscal 2025 exceeded $72 million, a 9% increase from last year. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.16, beating analyst estimates of $0.14. Revenue growth was driven by a strong performance in both the Sugar and Maple segments, with the latter seeing a 13% increase in revenues to $263 million for the full year. With a P/E Ratio of 11.25, the market seems to have a reasonable expectation of the company's earnings growth.

Publication Date: Nov -29

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Historic Adjusted EBITDA:
                                                Surpassed $150 million for the first time in 2025, while adjusted net earnings hit $72 million, up 9% YoY and over double in 5 years.
Sugar Segment Performance:
                                                Full-year adjusted EBITDA rose 4% to $129 million, though Q4 sales volume fell 4% to 196,000 metric tons.
Maple Segment Growth:
                                                Sales volume increased 14%, driving $263 million in annual revenues (+13% YoY), with over 50% of products exported to 50+ countries.
LEAP Project Update:
                                                Construction of a $280–300 million project delayed to H1 2027, with $27 million allocated for 2026 capital spending excluding LEAP.
Dividend Yield and Shareholder Returns:
                                                Returned $46 million via dividends in 2025 (6% yield), with a payout ratio declining to 64%.

                                

Segmental Performance

The Sugar segment performed well, with a 4% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $129 million for the full year. However, sugar sales volume for the fourth quarter was 196,000 metric tons, down 4% from last year. In contrast, the Maple segment saw a 14% increase in sales volume, driven by export business, with over 50% of its products exported to more than 50 countries. The company's diversified product portfolio and strong demand in both segments contributed to its robust financial performance.

LEAP Project Update

The company's LEAP project, a key growth initiative, is progressing, albeit with a delayed expected in-service date extended to the first half of calendar 2027. The estimated cost of the project remains between $280-300 million. Despite the delay, the company expects the LEAP project to drive growth in the Sugar segment and improve its competitive position. The delayed start-up will not affect OpEx costs, providing some comfort to investors.

Outlook and Valuation

For 2026, the company expects demand and pricing to remain strong in the Sugar segment, with a forecast of 750,000-770,000 metric tons in sales volume. The company will prioritize serving domestic customers while remaining alert to select export opportunities. With an EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.82, the company's valuation appears reasonable, considering its growth prospects. The dividend yield of 5.91% also provides a relatively stable source of return for investors. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -2.4%, but the company's solid balance sheet and prudent financial approach provide stability and flexibility to meet customer needs and deliver value to shareholders.

Financial Management

The company repaid $150 million in convertible debentures last year and refinanced $115 million, demonstrating its commitment to managing its debt effectively. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 2.44, the company's leverage is manageable. The company is monitoring capital markets for options to replace the remaining convertible debentures, with a focus on pacing financing with the LEAP Project spending. A prospectus filing is imminent, allowing for quick market access if opportunities arise.

3. NewsRoom

Rogers Sugar (TSE:RSI) Will Pay A Dividend Of CA$0.09

Dec -01

Source:

How Investors Are Reacting To Rogers Sugar (TSX:RSI) Earnings Beat, Expansion Delay and Dividend Update

Nov -30

Source:

Rogers Sugar (TSX:RSI) Valuation in Focus Following Improved Results and Dividend Confirmation

Nov -29

Source:

TSX Dividend Stocks Including Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce And 2 More Income Generators

Nov -28

Source:

Rogers Sugar Inc (RSGUF) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA and Strategic Challenges

Nov -28

Source:

Rogers Sugar Q4 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue, Beat Forecasts

Nov -27

Source:

Rogers Sugar Reports Strong Profitability Growth in 2025, Fuelled by our Focus on Servicing our Customers and Disciplined Execution

Nov -27

Source:

TSX Dividend Stocks Including Olympia Financial Group And Two More

Nov -20

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.50%)

6. Segments

Sugar

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for baked goods, increasing health consciousness driving demand for natural sweeteners, and expanding distribution channels are expected to drive Rogers Sugar Inc.'s growth in the Canadian sugar market.

Maple Products

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for natural sweeteners, increasing popularity of maple syrup in baking and cooking, and Rogers Sugar Inc.'s strong brand presence in the Canadian market are expected to drive the growth of the maple products segment.

7. Detailed Products

Sugar

Rogers Sugar Inc. produces and sells granulated sugar, a staple ingredient used in baking, cooking, and food preparation.

Liquid Sugars

Rogers Sugar Inc. offers a range of liquid sugars, including invert sugar, golden syrup, and treacle, used in food manufacturing and processing.

Icing Sugar

Rogers Sugar Inc. produces icing sugar, a finely powdered sugar used in baking and decorating.

Brown Sugar

Rogers Sugar Inc. offers a range of brown sugars, including golden brown sugar and dark brown sugar, used in baking and cooking.

Organic Sugar

Rogers Sugar Inc. produces organic sugar, a natural and sustainable sweetener option.

Specialty Sugars

Rogers Sugar Inc. offers a range of specialty sugars, including turbinado sugar, Demerara sugar, and muscovado sugar, used in baking and cooking.

8. Rogers Sugar Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Rogers Sugar Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative sweeteners such as honey, maple syrup, and artificial sweeteners. However, sugar remains a staple ingredient in many food products, limiting the impact of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the fragmented nature of the sugar market. Individual customers have limited negotiating power, and Rogers Sugar Inc. has a diverse customer base, reducing dependence on any one customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the concentration of sugar beet farmers and cane sugar suppliers. While Rogers Sugar Inc. has some negotiating power, suppliers can still exert some pressure on prices and supply.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the sugar industry, including significant capital investments and regulatory hurdles. New entrants would need to overcome these obstacles to compete with established players like Rogers Sugar Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the sugar industry. Rogers Sugar Inc. faces competition from other sugar producers, and the industry is characterized by fluctuating prices, high fixed costs, and significant marketing and advertising expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	58.82%
Debt Cost	6.83%
Equity Weight	41.18%
Equity Cost	6.83%
WACC	6.83%
Leverage	142.84%

11. Quality Control: Rogers Sugar Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Rogers Sugar

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Universal

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Village Super Market

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

CHS

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

North West Company

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 0.4

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-1.47%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

6.83%

Rogers Sugar Inc. - CA77519R1029

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on RSI

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Less Volatile

Stable Momentum

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Average Quality

Revenues Beats

Lower Growth

Earnings Miss

Fairly Valued

2. Rogers Sugar's Sweet Surprise: Earnings Beat Expectations

Segmental Performance

LEAP Project Update

Outlook and Valuation

Financial Management

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.50%)

6. Segments

Sugar

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Maple Products

Expected Growth: 4.5%

7. Detailed Products

Sugar

Liquid Sugars

Icing Sugar

Brown Sugar

Organic Sugar

Specialty Sugars

8. Rogers Sugar Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Rogers Sugar Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

5.92$

Current Price

5.92$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA