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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Trican Well Service Ltd., an equipment services company, provides various specialized products, equipment, services, and technology for use in the drilling, completion, stimulation, and reworking of oil and gas wells in Canada.The company offers cementing solutions, including pre-flushes and spacers, cement plugs, lost circulation, cement design, and laboratory solutions, as well as surface, intermediate, production, liner, horizontal, and remedial/squeeze cementing services; and cement pumpers, bulk equipment, and cement auxiliary equipment.It also provides reservoir solutions, such as exploration, production analysis, and simulation and modeling services; and coiled tubing solutions comprising coiled tubing fracturing and acidizing, specially designed tools, in-house engineering, well cleanouts, milling, high pressure jetting, e-coil, nitrogen gas lifting, and production enhancement, as well as equipment and tools.


In addition, the company offers acidizing and production enhancement services that include production and injection well enhancement services, and equipment; well intervention tools; and fracturing solutions and equipment.Trican Well Service Ltd.was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on TCW

Trican Well Service Ltd.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by concerns surrounding its financial prospects, despite attractive fundamentals. The company's Q3 2025 earnings report revealed revenue of C$300.59 million and net income of C$28.9 million, both surpassing the previous year. However, RBC Capital Markets maintains an outperform rating with a C$7.50 price target. The company's acquisition of Iron Horse Coiled Tubing Inc. and renewed Normal Course Issuer Bid program, allowing for share buybacks, may reshape its capital allocation priorities. (Source: RBC Capital Markets)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Trican Well Service's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Trican Well Service's third-quarter 2025 results demonstrated a significant improvement compared to the same period last year, with revenues reaching $300.6 million, up from $221.6 million in Q3 2024. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $59.5 million or 20% of revenue, compared to $50.2 million or 23% of revenues last year. Trican generated positive earnings of $28.9 million in the quarter, or $0.15 per share, and free cash flows of $35.4 million. The actual EPS came out at $0.1481, slightly beating analyst estimates of $0.1467.

Publication Date: Dec -02

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Q3 2025 revenue surged to $300.6 million, a 36% increase from Q3 2024's $221.6 million.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin:: Adjusted EBITDA hit $59.5 million (20% of revenue) compared to $50.2 million (23%) in Q3 2024.
  • Free Cash Flow:: Generated $35.4 million in free cash flow with net debt of $130.6 million, reflecting a leverage ratio of ~0.5x trailing EBITDAS.
  • Technology Investment:: Allocated $10 million for ERP and AI integration in 2025, part of a multiyear modernization plan.

Financial Performance

The company's financial performance was strong, driven by increased revenues and controlled capital expenditures. Capital expenditures were $18.9 million, with maintenance capital at $13.5 million and upgrade capital at $5.4 million. Trican exited the quarter with a net debt of $130.6 million, translating to just over half a turn of leverage using the trailing 12-month EBITDAS figure.

Operational Outlook

Trican's President and CEO, Bradley Fedora, noted that the company's customer list continues to level out throughout the year, and they do not expect budget exhaustion to impact their Q4 results. The company expects Q4 2025 to be very good, possibly one of the best quarters of the year, driven by work bumped out of September into October and November.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 10.84 and an EV/EBITDA of 5.3, the company's valuation appears reasonable. Additionally, the Dividend Yield is 3.25%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 13.34%, indicating a decent return for investors. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is -0.08, indicating a healthy balance sheet.

Growth Prospects

The company is well-positioned for growth, driven by a strong natural gas price outlook. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 17.6% for next year. Trican is focusing on the Montney and Duvernay plays, with the Iron Horse division focused on oilier plays. The company's sand logistics business is also expected to benefit from the growing demand for sand in Canada.

Technological Advancements

Trican is investing in technology, aiming for 100% natural gas-fueled operations and evaluating technologies for a 100% natural gas pump. The company is also modernizing its systems to facilitate advancements in AI and machine learning, which will bring efficiencies and cost savings.

Long-term Outlook

The long-term outlook for Canada remains unchanged, with the Montney becoming a premier play in North America. LNG Canada is progressing well, expecting to increase from 1 Bcf to 4 Bcf a day. Trican will continue to invest in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, maintaining a conservative balance sheet and generating industry-leading free cash flow.

3. NewsRoom

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Trican Well Service Ltd. Announces 2026 Capital Budget

Dec -02

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Will Trican Well Service's (TSX:TCW) Buybacks and Acquisition Reshape Its Capital Allocation Priorities?

Nov -01

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RBC Capital Markets Maintains Trican Well Service's Outperform Rating, C$7.50 Price Target, on Q3 Results

Oct -30

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Trican Reports Third Quarter Results for 2025 and Declares Quarterly Dividend

Oct -28

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Could The Market Be Wrong About Trican Well Service Ltd. (TSE:TCW) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

Oct -13

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Trican Well Service Ltd. Announces Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call

Oct -01

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Trican Well Service Renews Normal Course Issuer Bid Program

Oct -01

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Trican Well Service Ltd. Announces Renewal of Normal Course Issuer Bid Program for 2025-2026

Sep -30

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.37%)

6. Segments

Oil and Gas Wells

Expected Growth: 8.37%

Trican Well Service Ltd.'s 8.37% growth in Oil and Gas Wells is driven by increasing demand for fracking services, rising oil prices, and growing production in North America. Additionally, the company's expansion into new markets, improved operational efficiency, and strategic acquisitions have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Cementing Services

Trican Well Service Ltd. provides cementing services to ensure a strong bond between the casing and the formation, preventing fluid migration and ensuring wellbore integrity.

Acidizing Services

Trican Well Service Ltd. offers acidizing services to stimulate oil and gas wells, increasing production and enhancing recovery.

Coiled Tubing Services

Trican Well Service Ltd. provides coiled tubing services for a range of applications, including well intervention, completion, and production optimization.

Fracturing and Stimulation Services

Trican Well Service Ltd. offers fracturing and stimulation services to increase oil and gas production, using advanced technologies and techniques.

Nitrogen Services

Trican Well Service Ltd. provides nitrogen services for a range of applications, including well completion, stimulation, and production optimization.

Pipeline and Facility Services

Trican Well Service Ltd. offers pipeline and facility services, including pipeline cleaning, inspection, and maintenance.

8. Trican Well Service Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Trican Well Service Ltd. is medium due to the availability of alternative services and products in the oil and gas industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Trican Well Service Ltd. is low due to the company's strong market position and limited customer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Trican Well Service Ltd. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but the company's large scale of operations gives it some bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Trican Well Service Ltd. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Trican Well Service Ltd. is high due to the competitive nature of the oil and gas industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 3.39%
Debt Cost 12.97%
Equity Weight 96.61%
Equity Cost 12.97%
WACC 12.97%
Leverage 3.51%

11. Quality Control: Trican Well Service Ltd. passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Total Energy Services

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 7.2

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Trican Well Service

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Pason Systems

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
CES Energy Solutions

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
TerraVest

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 9.3

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Solaris Oilfield

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.34$

Current Price

6.34$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows