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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Kuehne + Nagel International AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides integrated logistics services worldwide.The company operates through Sea Logistics, Air Logistics, Road Logistics, and Contract Logistics segments.It provides less-than-container load, reefer and project logistics, cargo insurance, full container shipping solutions, and customs clearance services.


In addition, the company offers time-critical solutions, sea-air and time-defined products, airside and charter services, and time-critical solutions.Further, it provides aftermarket, production, and E commerce logistics, and distribution, packaging, process solutions.In addition, the company offers supply chain consulting and order management services.


It serves aerospace, automotive, mobility, consumer, healthcare, high-tech, industrial, and perishables industries.The company was founded in 1890 and is based in Schindellegi, Switzerland.Kuehne + Nagel International AG is a subsidiary of Kuehne Holding AG.

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1.b. Last Insights on KNIN

Kuehne + Nagel International AG's recent performance has been impacted by ongoing sector shifts and headwinds in global logistics demand. The company's latest earnings releases have drawn investor attention, with many scrutinizing its valuation. A formal EU-US trade framework is expected to stabilize trans-Atlantic container cargo flows, but one exception may limit its positive impact. Sector challenges and shifting demand patterns are influencing the company's operations, prompting investors to assess its prospects amidst these changes.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Kuehne + Nagel's Q3 Results: Navigating a Challenging Logistics Landscape

Kuehne + Nagel's 9-month 2025 financial results reveal a decline in Group EBIT by 13% year-over-year, excluding currency effects, with a combined Sea and Air Logistics EBIT down 16%. The company's EPS also declined by 18% year-over-year or 15% excluding currency effects, with actual EPS coming in at '1.63' relative to estimates at '1.68'. Despite the challenging market environment, Kuehne + Nagel expanded its global market share in Air Logistics and the SME segment in Sea Logistics. The company's revenue growth is estimated to be around 0.3% next year.

Publication Date: Oct -24

📋 Highlights
  • Market Share Expansion:: Gained global market share in Air Logistics and SME segment of Sea Logistics despite overcapacity and softer demand.
  • EBIT Decline:: Group EBIT dropped 13% YoY (16% for Sea and Air combined), with Q3 Sea Logistics EBIT at CHF 111 million and Air at CHF 92 million.
  • Cost Reduction Program:: Targeting CHF 200 million annualized savings by Q1 2027, focusing on staff, facilities, and variable expenses.
  • Outlook Adjustment:: Recurring EBIT for 2025 raised to >CHF 1.3 billion, with Q4 expected to mirror Q3’s performance.

Operational Performance

In Sea Logistics, underlying volume grew by 2% in Q3, but yields declined due to overcapacity, resulting in a Q3 EBIT of CHF 111 million. Air Logistics volume grew by 7% in Q3, with average yields under pressure, resulting in a Q3 EBIT of CHF 92 million. Road Logistics delivered an EBIT of CHF 20 million in Q3, a decline of 9% year-over-year, while Contract Logistics produced an EBIT of CHF 62 million, reflecting 9% year-over-year EBIT growth.

Cost Reduction and Restructuring

The company has announced measures to reduce recurring operation costs by at least CHF 200 million over the coming quarters, with a cost reduction program targeting annualized savings of at least CHF 200 million, to be fully reflected in the first quarter 2027 result. As the company stated, "the program will include staff-related costs, facilities-related costs, and other variable expenses." This cost-saving initiative aims to offset inflation and maintain profitability.

Outlook and Valuation

Kuehne + Nagel is adjusting its outlook for recurring EBIT in 2025 to greater than CHF 1.3 billion, excluding non-recurring items. With a P/E Ratio of 16.15 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.54, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The Dividend Yield stands at 5.27%, making it an attractive option for income investors. The company's focus on expanding its SME business, improving profitability, and maintaining a strong cash position will be key drivers for its future performance.

Acquisition and Integration

The acquisition of Apex will result in significantly expanded net debt by year-end 2025, but is expected to be accretive to EPS. Kuehne + Nagel leverages Apex as a carrier for their high-tech and hyperscaler customers, and expects the semicon high-tech and hyperscaler business to have significantly higher yields than the group average.

3. NewsRoom

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Air cargo faces $1Bn overhaul to comply with new CBP rule

Nov -20

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New Strong Sell Stocks for Nov. 14

Nov -14

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New Strong Sell Stocks for Nov. 12

Nov -12

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Kuehne + Nagel (SWX:KNIN): Exploring Valuation After Recent Earnings and Ongoing Sector Shifts

Sep -13

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EU-US pact to steady trans-Atlantic trade, forwarder says — with one exception

Aug -27

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KHNGY vs. PAC: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Jun -17

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Kuehne + Nagel to Buy Spanish Road-Logistics Provider

May -23

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West Coast ports see 30% decline in freight volume amid tariffs, TD Cowen says

Apr -28

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.30%)

6. Segments

Air Logistics

Expected Growth: None%

None

Sea Logistics

Expected Growth: None%

None

Road Logistics

Expected Growth: 2.3%

The rising importance of regional and domestic trade, as well as the increasing need for just-in-time delivery, will drive growth in road logistics services.

Contract Logistics

Expected Growth: 2.3%

The increasing need for supply chain optimization and the growing demand for customized logistics solutions will drive growth in contract logistics services.</li> <li><b>Eliminations</b>: Elimination of intersegment revenues and transactions between Kuehne + Nagel's business segments. — <i>Expected Growth: 2.3%</i> — <i>Rationale: The eliminations segment is expected to grow in line with the overall growth of the company's business segments.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: None%

None

7. Detailed Products

Sea Freight

Kuehne + Nagel's Sea Freight services provide customized ocean freight solutions for import and export cargo, including full container load (FCL), less than container load (LCL), and project cargo.

Air Freight

Kuehne + Nagel's Air Freight services offer fast and flexible air cargo solutions for time-critical shipments, including express, economy, and charter flights.

Overland

Kuehne + Nagel's Overland services provide customized road and rail transportation solutions for domestic and international shipments, including full truckload (FTL), less than truckload (LTL), and intermodal services.

Contract Logistics

Kuehne + Nagel's Contract Logistics services offer customized warehousing, distribution, and value-added services for businesses, including inventory management, order fulfillment, and supply chain optimization.

Integrated Logistics

Kuehne + Nagel's Integrated Logistics services provide end-to-end supply chain management solutions, including transportation, warehousing, and distribution, for businesses with complex logistics needs.

8. Kuehne + Nagel International AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Kuehne + Nagel International AG is moderate due to the presence of alternative logistics and transportation services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the concentration of major customers in the industry, giving them significant negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the company's large scale of operations and its ability to negotiate better prices with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the logistics and transportation industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several major players in the industry, leading to intense competition for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 17.95%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 82.05%
Equity Cost 8.26%
WACC 7.49%
Leverage 21.88%

11. Quality Control: Kuehne + Nagel International AG passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Vinci

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Volvo

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Deutsche Post

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Saint-Gobain

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Kuehne Nagel

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 5.0

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
DSV

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

163.85$

Current Price

163.85$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows