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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Deutsche Post AG operates as a mail and logistics company in Germany, rest of Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa.The company operates through five segments: Express; Global Forwarding, Freight; Supply Chain; eCommerce Solutions; and Post & Parcel Germany.The Express segment offers time-definite courier and express services to business and private customers.


The Global Forwarding, Freight segment provides air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding services; and offers multimodal and sector-specific solutions.This segment's business model is based on brokering transport services between customers and freight carriers.The Supply Chain segment delivers customized supply chain solutions to its customers based on modular components, including warehousing and transport services; and value-added services, such as e-fulfilment, omnichannel solutions and returns management, lead logistics partner, real estate solutions, service logistics, and packaging solutions for various industrial sectors.


The eCommerce Solutions segment provides parcel delivery and cross-border non-time definite international services.The Post & Parcel Germany segment transports and delivers mail communication, parcels, physical and hybrid letters, and special products for the delivery of goods; and offers additional services, such as registered mail, cash on delivery, and insured items.Deutsche Post AG was founded in 1490 and is headquartered in Bonn, Germany.

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1.b. Last Insights on DHL

Deutsche Post AG's recent performance has been driven by strategic expansion and cost-saving measures. The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted growth in emerging markets and robust cost-cutting initiatives. Additionally, Deutsche Post has made significant investments, such as a $90M upgrade to its New York delivery infrastructure, and has strengthened its international presence through logistics network expansion. The company has also made progress in digital strategy, with the appointment of a new group digital strategy head. Furthermore, Deutsche Post recently beat EPS by 24%, which may indicate a positive outlook.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. DHL's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Global Trade Shifts

DHL Group reported a robust Q3 2025 financial performance, with earnings per share (EPS) coming in at €0.764, beating analyst estimates of €0.63. The company's revenue decline was largely attributed to foreign exchange effects, while underlying trades, excluding U.S.-bound trade, showed growth, particularly with Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. The group's EBIT bridge showed a 7.6% year-over-year EBIT increase, or 10% growth excluding nonrecurring items. Operating cash flow before changes in working capital grew, and working capital changes contributed positively to cash flow, resulting in a strong free cash flow in Q3.

Publication Date: Nov -07

📋 Highlights
  • EBIT Growth: Excluding non-recurring items, Q3 EBIT rose 10% YoY, driven by cost savings and trade lane expansion.
  • Shareholder Returns: Share buybacks boosted EPS by 16% YoY, with EUR 4.4B of EUR 6B buyback program completed by Q3.
  • Fit for Growth Savings: EUR 250M cost savings achieved in 2025, accelerating structural cost reductions and margin improvement.
  • Global Trade Expansion: Long-distance trade reached record highs, with Southeast Asia, Europe, and Middle East trade growing despite U.S. de minimis challenges.
  • Strategic M&A Progress: EUR 1.4B new contract value in Supply Chain and integration of U.K. e-commerce with Evri to capitalize on growth tailwinds.

Segmental Performance

DHL Express's reported EBIT contained a net negative €54 million from nonrecurring effects, but excluding these, EBIT was up 9% year-over-year. Supply Chain continues to perform well, with €1.4 billion in new contract value in Q3. DHL e-commerce's EBIT includes nonrecurring effects, but the division confirms the intact structural e-commerce growth opportunity. P&P is delivering well on its strategic plan, with a year-over-year EBIT increase. As Tobias Meyer noted, "It was an interesting quarter that turned out well for us. We don't expect volatility to decrease and will stay close to our customers."

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 14.18 and a Dividend Yield of 4.28%, DHL's valuation appears reasonable. The company's guidance remains unchanged for the full year 2025, driven by cost and yield measures. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.5%. The company's focus on expanding its capability portfolio, particularly in Express and Global Forwarding, is expected to drive growth in 2026. The current valuation metrics suggest that the market has priced in a moderate growth outlook, but the company's strong cash flow generation and commitment to shareholder returns could support the stock's attractiveness.

Operational Highlights

The company's Fit for Growth program is on track, with €250 million in cost savings expected in 2025 and more to come in 2026. DHL has made progress in its Strategy 2030, focusing on industry verticals and investing in growing geographies. The company's use of technology, such as Agentic AI, is supporting its efforts in customs clearance, customer service, and service logistics. The de minimis impact is expected to be managed well, with the company having already taken pricing action to focus on yield and profitability.

3. NewsRoom

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Long-Standing PostalAnnex Franchisee Renews Commitment to Serving Her Community in Fresno, CA

Dec -05

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Update: Market Chatter: Amazon's Italian Unit Pays $209 Million Compensation to End Probe Into Tax, Labor Practices

Dec -05

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Market Chatter: Amazon's Italian Unit Pays $209 Million Compensation to End Probe Into Tax, Labor Practices

Dec -05

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Deutsche Post (XTRA:DHL): Assessing Valuation After a 35% 1-Year Share Price Climb

Dec -03

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Auto & Transport Roundup: Market Talk

Dec -02

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DHL Supply Chain Announces Five-year Strategic Alliance with Robust.AI to Drive the Next Generation of Logistics Automation in Mexico

Dec -02

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DHL Group’s CRYOPDP and Applied Blockchain Win Award for Digital Transformation in Healthcare Logistics

Dec -02

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Global Express and Small Parcels Delivery Market Report 2025-2029: Competitive Analysis of FedEx, UPS, USPS, SF Express, DHL Group, IDS (Royal Mail / GLS), La Poste

Dec -01

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.01%)

6. Segments

Express

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Express segment growth of 4.5% driven by e-commerce expansion, increased demand for fast and reliable parcel delivery, and investments in digitalization and logistics infrastructure. Pricing power and cost efficiency measures also contribute to growth, as Deutsche Post AG leverages its market position and operational strengths.

Global Forwarding, Freight

Expected Growth: 3.8%

The 3.8% growth in Global Forwarding, Freight from Deutsche Post AG is driven by increasing demand for logistics and e-commerce, efficient network expansion, and strategic acquisitions. Strong performance in Asia and Europe, coupled with a recovering global economy, also contribute to this growth. Digitalization and innovative services further enhance the segment's growth prospects.

Supply Chain

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Deutsche Post AG's supply chain growth of 4.2% is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, efficient logistics infrastructure, and strategic investments in digitalization and automation. The company's strong parcel and express business, as well as its expanding e-commerce services, contribute to this growth. Additionally, its focus on sustainability and customer satisfaction enhances its competitive position.

Post & Parcel Germany

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Post & Parcel Germany's 2.5% growth is driven by e-commerce expansion, increased online shopping, and rising demand for fast and reliable parcel delivery. Deutsche Post AG's investments in logistics and digitalization, such as automated sorting facilities, also enhance efficiency and contribute to growth.

eCommerce

Expected Growth: 6.0%

The eCommerce segment growth of 6.0% for Deutsche Post AG is driven by increasing online shopping, parcel volume growth, and expanding e-fulfillment services. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in digitalization and logistics infrastructure have enhanced its competitiveness, contributing to the segment's growth.

Group Functions

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Group Functions at Deutsche Post AG's growth of 2.0 is driven by synergies from integrated logistics, efficient resource allocation, and strategic investments in digitalization and e-commerce solutions. This enables cost savings, enhanced customer experience, and expanded service offerings, contributing to steady growth.

Consolidation

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Deutsche Post AG's consolidation growth of 3.0 is driven by e-commerce expansion, increased parcel volumes, and efficient logistics. The company's strategic investments in digitalization and automation enhance operational efficiency, while a strong presence in the European market provides a stable foundation for growth.

7. Detailed Products

Parcel and Express Services

Deutsche Post AG offers a range of parcel and express services, including DHL, which provides fast and reliable delivery of packages to individuals and businesses worldwide.

Mail Services

Deutsche Post AG provides mail services, including the delivery of letters and postcards to individuals and businesses in Germany and internationally.

Logistics and Supply Chain Management

Deutsche Post AG offers logistics and supply chain management services, including warehousing, freight forwarding, and customs clearance.

E-commerce Services

Deutsche Post AG provides e-commerce services, including online shopping solutions, payment processing, and delivery services.

Financial Services

Deutsche Post AG offers financial services, including banking and insurance products, through its subsidiary, Deutsche Postbank AG.

Marketing and Advertising Services

Deutsche Post AG provides marketing and advertising services, including direct mail, email marketing, and data analytics.

8. Deutsche Post AG's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Deutsche Post AG faces a moderate threat from substitutes, particularly from digital alternatives such as e-mails and online bill payments, which have reduced the demand for traditional postal services. However, the company has diversified its services to include parcel delivery and logistics, reducing its dependence on traditional mail services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Deutsche Post AG has a large customer base and is a market leader in postal services. Customers have limited bargaining power due to the essential nature of postal services and the lack of close substitutes. However, customers can choose from various postal service providers, which slightly increases their bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Deutsche Post AG has a large network of suppliers, including postal service providers and logistics companies. The company has significant bargaining power due to its large volume of purchases and its market leadership position. Suppliers are also dependent on Deutsche Post AG for their business.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to high barriers to entry, including significant investments required in infrastructure, logistics, and marketing. Deutsche Post AG also has a strong brand and a large customer base, making it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The postal services industry is highly competitive, with many players competing for market share. Deutsche Post AG faces intense competition from both domestic and international players, particularly in the parcel delivery and logistics segments. The company must continually invest in its services and infrastructure to remain competitive.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 48.54%
Debt Cost 6.54%
Equity Weight 51.46%
Equity Cost 9.50%
WACC 8.06%
Leverage 94.32%

11. Quality Control: Deutsche Post AG passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

45.58$

Current Price

45.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows