Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Novo Nordisk A/S, a healthcare company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products worldwide.It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity care, and Rare Disease.The Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides products in the areas of insulins, GLP-1 and related delivery systems, oral antidiabetic products, obesity, glucagon, needles, and other chronic diseases.

The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of haemophilia, blood disorders, endocrine disorders, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy.The company has a collaboration agreement with Gilead Sciences, Inc.; and research collaboration with Novo Nordisk to discover cell-specific carriers of nucleic acid therapeutics.The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on NOVO

Novo Nordisk's recent struggles can be attributed to several factors. The company's lowered full-year sales and profit guidance, announced on November 5, 2025, has impacted investor sentiment. Additionally, the pharmaceutical giant faces increased competition in the obesity and diabetes markets, particularly with GLP-1 rivalry. The company's failed Alzheimer's bet has also sparked a sharp selloff. Furthermore, looming U.S. price resets cloud growth and elevate execution risks. Analysts have revised their price target downward, citing a modest uptick in the discount rate and slightly softer revenue growth expectations.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	309.6
Change Percentage	1.24%
Open	309
Previous Close	305.8
Market Cap ( Millions)	1375658
Volume	5237050
Year High	798.1
Year Low	266.9
M A 50	334.21
M A 200	411.33

FCF Yield	4.51%
Dividend Yield	3.76%
ROE	77.86%
Debt / Equity	59.06%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	52.36%
Price To Book	8.19
Price Earnings Ratio	12.4
Price To FCF	22.19
Price To sales	4.41
EV / EBITDA	9.43

2. Novo Nordisk's Strong 9-Month Performance Driven by Diabetes and Obesity Segments

Novo Nordisk reported a 15% sales growth in the first 9 months of 2025, driven by its diabetes and obesity care segments. The company's GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased by 10%, while obesity care sales surged 41%. The gross margin decreased to 81.0% due to one-off restructuring costs and impairments. Operating profit increased by 10% at constant exchange rates, and net profit rose by 4%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at DKK 16.99, representing a 4% increase. Notably, the actual EPS was slightly higher than the estimated DKK 5.98 vs actual '6'.

Publication Date: Nov -06

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Revenue Growth::
                                                Sales increased by 15% (12% in DKK) in Q1-Q3 2025, driven by 41% growth in obesity care and 10% in GLP-1 diabetes treatments.
Cost Savings Target::
                                                Transformation program aims to achieve DKK 8 billion annual savings by 2026 through operational efficiency and resource reallocation.
R&D Pipeline Advances::
                                                Cagrilintide showed 11.8% weight loss in Phase III sub-analysis, with REIMAGINE 3 trial results expected H1 2026; oral semaglutide and Wegovy vials set for 2026 launches.
Strategic Acquisitions::
                                                Proposed Metsera acquisition to bolster obesity/diabetes R&D; Akero’s efruxifermin and Omeros’ zaltenibart added to pipeline.
Financial Performance::
                                                Operating profit rose 10% (adjusted +21%) despite restructuring costs; 2025 sales guidance narrowed to 8–11% growth at constant exchange rates.

                                

Segment Performance and Key Drivers

The company's U.S. operations drove growth, with GLP-1 diabetes care products increasing by 10% and Wegovy sales rising by 25%. International operations also contributed significantly, with an 83% growth in obesity care sales. Ludovic Helfgott noted that total sales increased by 15% in the first 9 months of 2025, driven by both operating units. The company's focus on diabetes and obesity is expected to continue driving growth.

Research and Development Pipeline

Novo Nordisk is intensifying its focus on key therapeutic areas, including diabetes and obesity. The company has announced agreements to acquire Akero's efruxifermin and Omeros' zaltenibart assets, complementing its existing pipeline. Martin Lange highlighted the sub-analysis of REDEFINE 1, which showed that cagrilintide achieved 11.8% weight loss at 68 weeks. The company is planning to study cagrilintide further in Phase III.

Valuation and Outlook

Using the provided valuation metrics, we can assess what's priced into the stock. The P/E Ratio stands at 12.43, and the P/S Ratio is 4.42. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 9.46, indicating a reasonable valuation. The Dividend Yield is 3.75%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 4.49%. With an ROE of 77.86% and ROIC of 39.31%, the company demonstrates strong profitability. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 5.2%.

Guidance and Capital Allocation

Novo Nordisk has narrowed its guidance range to 8% to 11% on sales and 4% to 7% for operating profit. The company expects to drive approximately DKK 8 billion in annual savings by the end of 2026 through its transformation program. The capital allocation framework includes investing in the business, paying out dividends, and pipeline additions through business development and M&A. The company has no intention of changing its dividend policy.

3. NewsRoom

Denmark's $600 Billion Economy Just Got a Boost--Thanks to One Drugmaker

Dec -04

Source:

Novo Nordisk Stock Rises -- Alzheimer's Program Hints at Potential Gains

Dec -04

Source:

LLY Trading Above 50 & 200-Day SMAs for 2 Months: How to Play the Stock

Dec -04

Source:

Hims & Hers Stock Gains on Move Into Canada

Dec -04

Source:

3 Large Drug Stocks to Watch as the Industry Shows Some Recovery

Dec -04

Source: zacks.com

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO): A Bull Case Theory

Dec -04

Source:

The Three Moves Hims & Hers Made This Week To Bolster Its Weight-Loss Biz

Dec -04

Source:

New Data from Semaglutide Trials Provides Critical Insights to Guide Next Generation of Therapies Targeting Alzheimer's Pathobiology

Dec -04

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.30%)

6. Segments

Diabetes and Obesity Care

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Growing prevalence of diabetes and obesity drives demand for Novo Nordisk's innovative solutions, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, which offer improved efficacy and patient outcomes, thereby driving market growth.

Rare Disease

Expected Growth: 7.4%

Novo Nordisk's rare disease treatment and research efforts drive growth, fueled by increasing prevalence of rare diseases and unmet medical needs. The company's strong pipeline and strategic collaborations further support growth.

7. Detailed Products

Ozempic

A glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Rybelsus

An oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Victoza

A glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Levemir

A long-acting insulin analog for the treatment of diabetes

NovoEight

A recombinant coagulation factor VIII for the treatment of hemophilia A

NovoSeven

A recombinant coagulation factor VIIa for the treatment of bleeding episodes in patients with hemophilia A or B

8. Novo Nordisk A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Novo Nordisk A/S faces moderate threat from substitutes, as patients may opt for alternative treatments or lifestyle changes to manage their diabetes. However, the company's innovative products and strong brand recognition mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Patients and healthcare providers have limited bargaining power due to Novo Nordisk A/S's strong brand reputation and limited availability of alternative treatments.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Novo Nordisk A/S has a diversified supplier base, reducing dependence on individual suppliers and minimizing the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The pharmaceutical industry has high barriers to entry, including significant R&D investments and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with Novo Nordisk A/S.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The diabetes treatment market is highly competitive, with several established players, including Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca, competing with Novo Nordisk A/S for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	20.22%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	79.78%
Equity Cost	4.92%
WACC	4.72%
Leverage	25.34%

11. Quality Control: Novo Nordisk A/S passed 8 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Novartis

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

GSK

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

UCB

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Novo Nordisk

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-3.62%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

4.72%

Novo Nordisk A/S - DK0062498333

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on NOVO

1.c. Company Highlights

Better Quality

Expensive

Higher Growth

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Strong Momentum

Higher Yield

Revenues Miss

Weak Momentum

2. Novo Nordisk's Strong 9-Month Performance Driven by Diabetes and Obesity Segments

Segment Performance and Key Drivers

Research and Development Pipeline

Valuation and Outlook

Guidance and Capital Allocation

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.30%)

6. Segments

Diabetes and Obesity Care

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Rare Disease

Expected Growth: 7.4%

7. Detailed Products

Ozempic

Rybelsus

Victoza

Levemir

NovoEight

NovoSeven

8. Novo Nordisk A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Novo Nordisk A/S passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

309.6$

Current Price

309.6$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA