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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Novo Nordisk A/S, a healthcare company, engages in the research, development, manufacture, and marketing of pharmaceutical products worldwide.It operates in two segments, Diabetes and Obesity care, and Rare Disease.The Diabetes and Obesity care segment provides products in the areas of insulins, GLP-1 and related delivery systems, oral antidiabetic products, obesity, glucagon, needles, and other chronic diseases.


The Rare Disease segment offers products in the areas of haemophilia, blood disorders, endocrine disorders, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy.The company has a collaboration agreement with Gilead Sciences, Inc.; and research collaboration with Novo Nordisk to discover cell-specific carriers of nucleic acid therapeutics.The company was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Bagsvaerd, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on NOVO

Novo Nordisk faces challenges with a significant decline in its share price over the past year and 3 years. The company's recent performance has been impacted by disappointing late-stage trial results for its obesity drug CagriSema, which showed weaker-than-expected competitiveness versus Eli Lilly's Zepbound, leading to a downgrade by JPMorgan to Neutral from Overweight. Additionally, the company expects 2026 sales and operating profit to decline, citing 'extraordinary' challenges. Analysts have revised their fair value estimate for Novo Nordisk from DKK 376.59 to DKK 330.95, reflecting more conservative expectations.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Novo Nordisk's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Strong Growth and Innovation

Novo Nordisk delivered a robust financial performance in 2025, with total sales increasing by 10% at constant exchange rates, driven by both its operating units. The company's gross margin decreased to 81%, and operating profit grew by 6% at constant exchange rates. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 6, beating analyst estimates of 5.83. The company's cash generation was strong, with close to DKK 120 billion generated from operating activities, and around DKK 52 billion returned to shareholders in the form of dividends.

Publication Date: Feb -06

📋 Highlights
  • Wegovy Sales Surge:: Wegovy generated DKK 28 billion in 2025, reflecting a 134% growth, driven by the FDA-approved oral GLP-1 obesity treatment.
  • Obesity Market Expansion:: Obesity care sales surged 31% in 2025, outpacing overall sales growth (10%), with 16.6% weight loss efficacy and CV benefits supporting demand.
  • Shareholder Returns:: Novo Nordisk returned DKK 300 billion to shareholders since 2019, including DKK 52 billion in 2025 dividends and a new DKK 15 billion share buyback program.
  • R&D Breakthroughs:: CagriSema showed superior A1c reduction and weight loss in Phase III trials, while zenagamtide and UBT251 advanced in Phase II/III for type 2 diabetes.

Segment Performance

The company's obesity care sales surged 31% driven by Wegovy, with sales reaching DKK 28 billion in 2025, growing 134%. GLP-1 sales in diabetes increased by 6%, while insulin sales decreased by 1%. Rare Disease sales grew by 9%. The U.S. operations grew 8%, and International Operations grew 14%. The Wegovy pill, launched on January 5, has seen encouraging early uptake, with over 170,000 people currently on the medication, mostly self-pay.

Innovation Pipeline

Novo Nordisk made significant progress in its R&D pipeline, announcing positive results from the Phase III trial for CagriSema in type 2 diabetes and the Phase II trial for zenagamtide. The company also initiated a Phase Ib/II trial in obesity with a triagonist, GLP-1, GIP amylin targeted agonist. The REDEFINE 4 trial is comparing CagriSema and tirzepatide in an obese population, testing for non-inferiority and then superiority.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 12.17 and an ROE of 61.1%, Novo Nordisk's valuation appears reasonable. The company's dividend yield stands at 4.15%, and the free cash flow yield is 4.51%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.9%. Given the company's strong pipeline and growth prospects, the current valuation seems to be fairly priced. The guidance for 2026 reflects expectations for sales growth within International Operations and a decline within U.S. operations due to pricing headwinds.

Guidance and Future Prospects

Novo Nordisk expects adjusted sales growth to be between -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates in 2026, and adjusted operating profit growth to be between -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates. The company is confident in its ability to supply the US market with the Wegovy pill and expects strong demand sustainability due to its 16.6% weight loss benefit and CV benefits. The API build-out is on track, with new facilities coming online this year and in the coming years.

3. NewsRoom

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Novo Resources appoints GM of exploration ahead of Wyloo drilling

10:56

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Novo Nordisk partners with OpenAI to speed drug discovery

09:03

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Novo Nordisk’s Etavopivat Trials Put Rare Blood Disorders In Focus

05:05

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Novo Nordisk Taps OpenAI For AI Edge In Obesity Drug Battle

05:03

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Novo Resources Strengthens Exploration Leadership with Appointment of Experienced Geologist Mr. Rohan Williams

Apr -14

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Sector Update: Health Care Stocks Higher Late Afternoon

Apr -14

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Big Pharma Deepens AI Ties. What It Means For Novo, Novartis.

Apr -14

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Novo Bets on OpenAI to Rebuild Its Obesity Edge

Apr -14

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.30%)

6. Segments

Diabetes and Obesity Care

Expected Growth: 10.5%

Growing prevalence of diabetes and obesity drives demand for Novo Nordisk's innovative solutions, such as GLP-1 receptor agonists, which offer improved efficacy and patient outcomes, thereby driving market growth.

Rare Disease

Expected Growth: 7.4%

Novo Nordisk's rare disease treatment and research efforts drive growth, fueled by increasing prevalence of rare diseases and unmet medical needs. The company's strong pipeline and strategic collaborations further support growth.

7. Detailed Products

Ozempic

A glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Rybelsus

An oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Victoza

A glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Levemir

A long-acting insulin analog for the treatment of diabetes

NovoEight

A recombinant coagulation factor VIII for the treatment of hemophilia A

NovoSeven

A recombinant coagulation factor VIIa for the treatment of bleeding episodes in patients with hemophilia A or B

8. Novo Nordisk A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Novo Nordisk A/S faces moderate threat from substitutes, as patients may opt for alternative treatments or lifestyle changes to manage their diabetes. However, the company's innovative products and strong brand recognition mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Patients and healthcare providers have limited bargaining power due to Novo Nordisk A/S's strong brand reputation and limited availability of alternative treatments.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Novo Nordisk A/S has a diversified supplier base, reducing dependence on individual suppliers and minimizing the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The pharmaceutical industry has high barriers to entry, including significant R&D investments and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new entrants to compete with Novo Nordisk A/S.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The diabetes treatment market is highly competitive, with several established players, including Eli Lilly, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca, competing with Novo Nordisk A/S for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 20.22%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 79.78%
Equity Cost 4.92%
WACC 4.72%
Leverage 25.34%

11. Quality Control: Novo Nordisk A/S passed 8 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Novartis

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.3

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 9.3

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GSK

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.7

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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.4

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 6.3

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UCB

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 1.1

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 7.8

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

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Novo Nordisk

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 8.8

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Vertex Pharmaceuticals

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 1.5

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 8.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

251.85$

Current Price

251.85$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows