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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Antofagasta plc operates as a mining company.It operates through Los Pelambres, Centinela, Antucoya, Zaldívar, Exploration and Evaluation, and Transport Division segments.The company holds a 60% interest in the Los Pelambres mine, a 70% interest in the Centinela mine, a 70% interest in the Antucoya mine, and a 50% interest in the Zaldívar mine located in Chile.


Its mines produce copper cathodes and copper concentrates, as well as molybdenum, gold, and silver by-products.The company also has exploration projects in various countries.In addition, it provides rail and road cargo services to mining customers in northern Chile.


The company was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.Antofagasta plc is a subsidiary of Metalinvest Establishment.

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1.b. Last Insights on ANTO

Antofagasta's recent performance has been positively influenced by shifting analyst expectations and dividend news. The company's consensus analyst price target has marginally increased from £20.26 to £20.57, reflecting balanced optimistic expectations and valuation caution. Additionally, the company's inclusion in the FTSE100 index, which has seen gains aided by copper and oil price increases, has likely contributed to its positive momentum. Industry analysts have issued varied perspectives on Antofagasta's stock, with some expressing cautious optimism.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Antofagasta's Stellar Half-Year Results Boosted by Copper and Gold Production

Antofagasta's 2025 half-year results were impressive, with revenues surging 29% to reach a significant milestone. The company's EBITDA margin expanded 25% to 58.8%, driven by higher copper production, gold, and molybdenum output. This remarkable performance was accompanied by a substantial increase in cash flow, underscoring the company's ability to generate solid returns.

Publication Date: Aug -17

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue and EBITDA Surge:: Revenues rose 29%, EBITDA jumped 60%, and EBITDA margin hit 58.8% (25% YoY increase), reflecting strong operational efficiency.
  • Production Growth Drivers:: Higher copper, gold, and molybdenum output, with Centinela and Pelambres expansions set to boost production by 30%.
  • Dividend Consistency:: Maintained $0.166/share dividend, aligning with shareholder policy despite capital-intensive projects.
  • CapEx Guidance:: $3.9 billion annual capital expenditure, with second-half spend higher due to new projects and FX assumptions at CLP 900/USD.
  • Zaldívar Water Solution:: Weighing between a capital-intensive owned solution and a third-party option, with final decision pending before Cuprochlor deployment.

Strong Operational Performance

The company's two major projects, the expansion at Centinela and the expansion of the water system at Pelambres, are progressing as planned and are expected to increase production by 30%. This growth will be further supported by a grade increase at Los Pelambres next year, providing a strong foundation for future earnings growth.

Capital Expenditure and Production Outlook

During the Q&A session, Ivan Arriagada, CEO of Antofagasta, reiterated the company's capital expenditure guidance of $3.9 billion for the year, with the second half expected to be more loaded on spend due to planned work and new projects. The company is also considering different options for a water solution at Zaldívar, including a fully owned solution and a lighter capital option that relies on a third-party water provider.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 34.19 and an EV/EBITDA of 10.43, Antofagasta's shares appear to be fairly valued. The company's dividend yield of 1.12% and free cash flow yield of -0.46% suggest that investors are pricing in a significant portion of the company's growth prospects. However, with a strong operational performance and solid growth prospects, Antofagasta's shares may still offer upside potential for investors.

Analysts' Estimates and EPS

Analysts expect Antofagasta's revenues to grow 4.7% next year, and the company's actual EPS of $0.3453 surpassed estimates of $0.3184. This beat on EPS suggests that Antofagasta's shares may have further room to run, especially if the company continues to deliver strong operational performance.

3. NewsRoom

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How Recent Developments Are Reframing the Story for Antofagasta

Nov -18

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Why Analysts Are Rethinking Antofagasta’s Upside as Growth and Valuation Outlooks Shift

Nov -03

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Miners prosper as FTSE 100 makes steady progress

Oct -13

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Why The Narrative Around Antofagasta Is Shifting With Latest Analyst Updates

Oct -06

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FTSE 100 held back by weak oil after bright start

Sep -29

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Copper and oil gains aid FTSE 100 after lacklustre opening

Sep -24

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Why The Narrative Around Antofagasta Is Shifting After Recent Analyst Updates and Dividend News

Sep -21

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Mining Stocks Rally on News of $53 Billion Anglo-Teck Merger

Sep -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.80%)

6. Segments

Mining - Los Pelambres

Expected Growth: 11.5%

Driven by increased copper production and favorable market conditions, with ongoing projects expected to enhance production capacity, thus contributing to higher revenue growth.

Mining - Centinela

Expected Growth: 10.2%

The growth rate reflects a balance between existing production capacity and potential for operational optimization, with a focus on efficiency rather than major expansion, influencing the revenue growth.

Mining - Antucoya

Expected Growth: 9.5%

The lower growth rate is attributed to operational specifics and potentially less favorable market conditions for its production profile, affecting revenue growth.

Transport Division

Expected Growth: 12.0%

The higher growth rate is supported by increasing demand for transportation services from the mining segments, particularly as mining activity potentially increases, thus driving revenue growth.

7. Detailed Products

Copper

Antofagasta plc is one of the largest copper producers in the world, with operations in Chile. The company produces high-quality copper cathodes and copper concentrates.

Gold

Antofagasta plc also produces gold as a by-product of its copper mining operations. The company's gold production is mainly from its Centinela and Zaldívar mines in Chile.

Molybdenum

Antofagasta plc produces molybdenum as a by-product of its copper mining operations. Molybdenum is used to strengthen steel and improve its resistance to corrosion.

Silver

Antofagasta plc also produces silver as a by-product of its copper mining operations. The company's silver production is mainly from its Centinela and Zaldívar mines in Chile.

8. Antofagasta plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Antofagasta plc is medium due to the availability of alternative metals and minerals in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Antofagasta plc is low due to the company's strong market position and limited buyer concentration.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Antofagasta plc is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's ability to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Antofagasta plc is low due to the high barriers to entry in the mining industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Antofagasta plc is high due to the competitive nature of the mining industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 31.29%
Debt Cost 4.50%
Equity Weight 68.71%
Equity Cost 9.56%
WACC 7.98%
Leverage 45.54%

11. Quality Control: Antofagasta plc passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CRH

A-Score: 5.4/10

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A-Score: 4.7/10

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Antofagasta

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

30.1$

Current Price

30.1$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows