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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Mobico Group Plc engages in providing public transport services in the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Morocco, Switzerland, the United States, Canada, France, and Portugal.The company operates through UK, German Rail, ALSA, and North America segments.It owns and leases vehicles.


The company also provides student transportation, urban bus, regional/long haul coach, rail, and charter and other services; transit and scheduled coach services; and private hire and commuter coach travel services.In addition, it operates alternative fuel technologies, such as propane, electric, and hydrogen; and offers shuttle services.The company has a fleet of approximately 28,000 vehicles.


It provides its services to cities, businesses, and education providers, as well as direct to customers.The company was formerly known as National Express Group PLC and changed its name to Mobico Group Plc in June 2023.Mobico Group Plc was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Birmingham, the United Kingdom.

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1.b. Last Insights on MCG

Mobico Group's recent performance has been impacted by a 12.7% fall in underlying operating profits to £59.9 million for the six months to June 30. Analysts have revised their fair value estimate to £0.39 per share, citing steady discount rates and minor revisions to growth expectations. A slight increase in the discount rate to 13.19% has led to a nuanced market recalibration. The company's revenue growth projections remain steady, but a challenging operational environment and sector risks have led to a cautious outlook.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

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How the Story for Mobico Group is Evolving After Recent Analyst Updates

Nov -17

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Why Analysts See a Changing Story for Mobico Group Amid New Contracts and Sector Risks

Nov -03

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How the Story Is Changing for Mobico Group as Analyst Views Shift on Valuation and Risks

Oct -18

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Mobico Group First Half 2025 Earnings: UK£0.059 loss per share (vs UK£0.079 loss in 1H 2024)

Sep -11

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Form 8.3 - IQE Plc

Sep -09

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Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW.): A Fresh Look at Valuation After a Year of Share Price Pressure

Sep -09

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Assessing Diageo (LSE:DGE) Shares: Is the Current Valuation a Missed Opportunity?

Sep -09

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Does Lloyds Offer More Value After Latest UK Interest Rate Decision?

Sep -09

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.66%)

6. Segments

South Africa

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Mobico Group Plc's 3.5% growth in South Africa is driven by increasing mobile penetration, a growing middle class, and government investments in digital infrastructure. Additionally, the company's focus on affordable data plans and strategic partnerships with local businesses have contributed to its success in the region.

Rest of Africa

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Mobico Group Plc's 3.8% growth in Rest of Africa is driven by increasing mobile penetration, expanding 4G network coverage, and growing demand for data services. Additionally, the region's improving economic conditions, rising middle class, and increasing adoption of digital payments are contributing to the growth.

Technology

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Mobico Group Plc's 5.2% growth in Technology segment is driven by increasing demand for digital transformation, adoption of cloud-based services, and rising need for cybersecurity solutions. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in emerging technologies such as AI, IoT, and 5G have contributed to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Financial Services

Mobico Group Plc provides mobile financial services, enabling customers to make payments, transfer money, and access financial services through their mobile devices.

Digital Payments

Mobico Group Plc offers digital payment solutions, allowing customers to make online transactions, pay bills, and purchase goods and services.

Mobile Money

Mobico Group Plc provides mobile money services, enabling customers to store and manage their money on their mobile devices.

Remittance Services

Mobico Group Plc offers remittance services, allowing customers to send and receive money across borders.

Digital Lending

Mobico Group Plc provides digital lending services, offering customers access to loans and credit facilities.

Mobile Insurance

Mobico Group Plc offers mobile insurance services, providing customers with protection against unforeseen events.

8. Mobico Group Plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Mobico Group Plc faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the availability of alternative products and services in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Mobico Group Plc's customers have significant bargaining power due to their ability to switch to alternative products and services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Mobico Group Plc has a diverse supplier base, reducing the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the market is moderate due to the presence of barriers to entry, such as high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the market is high due to the presence of several established players and the need to differentiate products and services.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 60.12%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 39.88%
Equity Cost 11.38%
WACC 6.91%
Leverage 150.78%

11. Quality Control: Mobico Group Plc passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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FirstGroup

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 3.7

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 6.3

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Jungfraubahn

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.7

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BVZ Holding

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.7

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Vossloh

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.7

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Talgo

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.3

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Mobico

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.22$

Current Price

0.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows