Mondi plc (MNDI.L) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Mondi plc engages in the manufacture and sale of packaging and paper products in Africa, Western Europe, Emerging Europe, Russia, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia.It operates in Corrugated Packaging, Flexible Packaging, Engineered Materials, and Uncoated Fine Paper segments.The company offers flexible packaging, bags, and pouches; personal care components; release liners; functional films; corrugated solutions; industrial bags; barrier coatings; specialty Kraft and sack Kraft papers; containerboards; and office and professional printing papers.

It serves customers in the agriculture, automotive, building and construction, chemicals and dangerous goods, food and beverages, graphic and photographic, home and personal care, medical and pharmaceutical, office and professional printing, paper and packaging converting, pet care, retail and e-commerce, and shipping and transport industries.Mondi plc was founded in 1967 and is based in Weybridge, the United Kingdom.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on MNDI

Mondi's recent performance has been negatively impacted by challenging trading conditions, weak demand, and declining prices across pulp and paper products. Analysts have lowered their consensus price target for the company from £13.80 to £12.20, reflecting a more cautious stance. The company's profit warning has also affected its peers, including International Paper and Smurfit Westrock. Mondi's subdued outlook and persistent challenges have raised concerns about its short-term prospects, despite its long-term growth potential.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	872.6
Change Percentage	-0.11%
Open	879.4
Previous Close	873.6
Market Cap ( Millions)	3844
Volume	1046432
Year High	1338
Year Low	801.6
M A 50	867.39
M A 200	1071.78

FCF Yield	-0.51%
Dividend Yield	6.89%
ROE	2.16%
Debt / Equity	59.05%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	406.15%
Price To Book	0.92
Price Earnings Ratio	42.32
Price To FCF	-195.53
Price To sales	0.78
EV / EBITDA	10.82

2. Transcript Summary

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3. NewsRoom

Mondi opens new kraft paper machine at mill in Czech Republic

Nov -26

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What Catalysts Could Shift Mondi’s Narrative Amid Ratings Changes and Strategic Upheaval?

Nov -21

Source:

Flexible Packaging Market worth $369.6 billion in 2030, at a CAGR of 4.2%, says MarketsandMarkets™

Nov -21

Source:

How Recent Analyst Moves Are Shaping The Story Behind Mondi’s Valuation

Nov -07

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How Recent Analyst Revisions Are Shaping the Mondi Investment Story

Oct -23

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UK stocks spooked by new Trump threat of fresh tariffs on China

Oct -10

Source:

The Bull Case for International Paper (IP) Could Change Following Analyst Downgrade and Sector Profit Concerns

Oct -09

Source:

How Analyst Sentiment Shifts Are Changing Mondi’s Investment Story

Oct -08

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.69%)

6. Segments

Flexible Packaging

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Mondi plc's Flexible Packaging segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and convenient packaging solutions, growth in e-commerce, and rising consumption of packaged food and beverages. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, cost savings, and strategic acquisitions have contributed to its growth momentum.

Corrugated Packaging

Expected Growth: 4.78%

Mondi plc's Corrugated Packaging segment growth of 4.78% is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, rising online shopping trends, and growing need for sustainable packaging solutions. Additionally, the segment benefits from Mondi's strategic acquisitions, expansion into emerging markets, and focus on innovative product offerings, contributing to its robust growth.

Uncoated Fine Paper

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Mondi plc's Uncoated Fine Paper segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, rising e-commerce activities, and growing need for paper-based communication materials. Additionally, the company's strategic expansion into emerging markets, cost savings initiatives, and investments in production capacity also contribute to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Packaging Paper

Mondi's packaging paper products are designed for safe and efficient packaging of goods, offering a range of paper grades and weights for various applications.

Specialty Packaging

Mondi's specialty packaging products offer customized solutions for unique packaging needs, including laminated and coated papers.

Uncoated Fine Paper

Mondi's uncoated fine paper products are designed for high-quality printing and writing applications, offering a range of textures and finishes.

Coated Fine Paper

Mondi's coated fine paper products offer high-gloss and matte finishes for premium printing applications, including magazines, catalogs, and brochures.

Containerboard

Mondi's containerboard products are designed for corrugated packaging applications, offering a range of flute sizes and strengths.

Kraft Paper

Mondi's kraft paper products offer a natural, sustainable packaging solution for various applications, including bags, sacks, and wrapping paper.

Bags and Sacks

Mondi's bags and sacks products offer customized packaging solutions for various industries, including food, construction, and chemicals.

Specialty Films

Mondi's specialty films products offer customized solutions for various applications, including food, pharmaceutical, and industrial packaging.

8. Mondi plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Mondi plc operates in the paper and packaging industry, where substitutes are limited. However, there is a growing trend towards sustainable and eco-friendly products, which could lead to the development of new substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Mondi plc has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's products are often customized to meet specific customer needs, making it difficult for customers to switch suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Mondi plc relies on a few large suppliers for raw materials such as wood pulp and recycled fiber. While the company has some bargaining power due to its large scale, suppliers may still have some negotiating power due to the specialized nature of their products.

Threat Of New Entrants

The paper and packaging industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. Additionally, Mondi plc has a strong brand and established customer relationships, making it difficult for new entrants to gain traction.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The paper and packaging industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Mondi plc faces intense competition from companies such as International Paper, Smurfit Kappa, and DS Smith.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	26.31%
Debt Cost	7.47%
Equity Weight	73.69%
Equity Cost	7.47%
WACC	7.47%
Leverage	35.70%

11. Quality Control: Mondi plc passed 2 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Navigator

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

BillerudKorsnäs

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Holmen

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Mondi

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

SCA

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stora Enso

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 2.1

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

40.87%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.47%

Mondi plc - GB00BMWC6P49

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MNDI

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Lower Growth

Stable Momentum

Medium Volatility

Expensive

Average Growth

Fairly Valued

Average Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Weak Momentum

2. Transcript Summary

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.69%)

6. Segments

Flexible Packaging

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Corrugated Packaging

Expected Growth: 4.78%

Uncoated Fine Paper

Expected Growth: 4.65%

7. Detailed Products

Packaging Paper

Specialty Packaging

Uncoated Fine Paper

Coated Fine Paper

Containerboard

Kraft Paper

Bags and Sacks

Specialty Films

8. Mondi plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Mondi plc passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.73$

Current Price

8.73$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA