Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Holmen AB (publ) produces and sells paperboards, papers, wood products, and renewable energy in Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, rest of Europe, Asia, and internationally.The company's Forest segment offers logs, pulpwood, and biofuel to sawmills, pulp mills, and paperboard and paper mills; and manages forests, which cover approximately one million hectares.Its Paperboard segment provides paperboards for consumer packaging to brand owners, converters, and wholesalers.


The company's Paper segment offers papers for books, magazines, printed advertising, and packaging to publishers, printing firms, and retailers.Its Wood Products segment provides construction and joinery timber, CLT and glulam products, and wood for pallets and packaging to construction, joinery, and packaging industries, as well as builders' merchants; and operates sawmills.The company's Renewable Energy segment operates 21 hydro power stations; and wind farms with a capacity of approximately 1.2 TWh of electricity.


Holmen AB (publ) was founded in 1609 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on HOLM

Holmen AB's recent performance has been impacted by market challenges, particularly in its energy division, which reported losses. Despite efforts to maintain strong shareholder returns and cost efficiencies, the company faces pressures in the market. The recent earnings call highlighted these challenges, but also emphasized the company's ability to navigate them. Additionally, a 10% drop in value this year has raised questions about the timing of reevaluating the company. Its long history and solid presence in forestry and paper have kept it in focus for both long-term and short-term investors.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Holmen's FY2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst Challenging Market Conditions

Holmen Group delivered a revenue of SEK 24.6 billion for the full year 2025, with an EPS of 3.76, below analyst estimates of 4.2. The company's operating profit margin stood at 15.6%, impacted by lower activity and demand for pulpwood, leading to lower prices in the fourth quarter. Despite the challenges, Holmen maintained a solid financial situation with a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 10%. As Stefan Lorehn noted, "the underlying performance was good, with higher harvesting volumes" in the Forest division.

Publication Date: Feb -11

📋 Highlights
  • Full-Year Revenue:: Holmen Group reported SEK 3.3 billion in revenue for 2025, despite geopolitical challenges and a slow construction market.
  • Dividend Increase:: Proposed ordinary dividend raised to SEK 9.50 (from SEK 9), with SEK 13 billion distributed over the past 5 years via dividends and buybacks.
  • Storm Impact:: Storm Johannes caused a SEK 30–40 million cost increase in the Forest division due to disrupted harvests and tree management.
  • Wood Products Loss:: Division recorded a SEK 111 million loss in Q4 2025 due to high wood costs and weak market demand.
  • Board & Paper Performance:: High Q4 result driven by SEK 250 million from green certificates, emission rights, and lower energy costs.

Segmental Performance

The Forest division saw a write-down of felling rights of SEK 160 million, affecting the result. However, the division's underlying performance was supported by higher harvesting volumes. The Wood Products division reported a loss of SEK 111 million in the fourth quarter due to high wood costs and challenging market conditions. In contrast, the Board and Paper division delivered a high result, partly due to higher income from green certificates and emission rights.

Valuation and Outlook

Holmen's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 19.98, P/B Ratio of 1.04, and Dividend Yield of 2.42%. The company's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stands at 1.12, indicating a manageable debt position. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 1.1% for the next year. Given the current valuation multiples, it appears that the market has priced in a moderate growth outlook. However, Holmen's commitment to maintaining a stable dividend payout and its solid financial position are positive indicators.

Operational Highlights

The storm in January had limited effects on Holmen, but it affected 10% of the company's normal harvest in Sweden. The company expects to manage the situation within normal operations. Holmen's energy costs were lower than normal in the fourth quarter, benefiting from hydropower and wind power production in northern Sweden.

Market Dynamics

Pricing for folding boxboard and solid bleached board remained relatively sticky, with minimal movement in 2025. Holmen's sawmill operations in Sweden continued to run at similar production levels, despite the slow construction market. The company's exposure to the US market is limited, and the direct effect of tariffs is minimal. However, the dynamic effects of the tariffs are affecting Holmen's business.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Holmen AB (HLHLY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...

Jan -30

Source:

Card image cap

Sweden to receive wind-energy lift with EIB loan to Holmen

Nov -03

Source:

Card image cap

Holmen AB (FRA:HL9C) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic ...

Oct -23

Source:

Card image cap

Is Now the Right Moment to Reevaluate Holmen After a 10% Drop in 2025?

Sep -09

Source:

Card image cap

Holmen AB (FRA:HL9C) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Market Challenges with ...

Aug -15

Source:

Card image cap

Holmen AB (FRA:HL9C) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Position Amid Market ...

May -09

Source:

Card image cap

Holmen AB (FRA:HL9C) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Full-Year Performance Amidst ...

Apr -21

Source:

Card image cap

Holmen AB (HLMMF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Operating Profit Amidst Market Challenges

Oct -25

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.53%)

6. Segments

Paper

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Holmen AB's 2.5% growth in paper segment is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, rising e-commerce sales, and growing need for paper-based products in the food and pharmaceutical industries. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings, operational efficiency, and strategic investments in new products and markets contribute to its growth momentum.

Paperboard

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Holmen AB's paperboard segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging, expansion in e-commerce, and rising consumption of premium paperboard products. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in production capacity and cost-saving initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth.

Wood Products

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Holmen AB's Wood Products segment growth of 2.2% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable building materials, favorable housing market trends in Sweden and the UK, and the company's strategic focus on high-margin products such as glulam and CLT. Additionally, investments in production efficiency and cost savings initiatives contribute to the segment's growth.

Forest

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Holmen AB's Forest segment growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing demand for sustainable forestry products, favorable timber prices, and efficient forestry management practices. Additionally, the company's focus on reforestation and biodiversity initiatives contributes to long-term growth. Strong market demand from the pulp and paper industry, as well as the growing bioenergy sector, also supports the segment's growth.

Renewable Energy

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Holmen AB's 4.2% growth in Renewable Energy is driven by increasing demand for sustainable power, Swedish government's renewable energy targets, and declining production costs. Additionally, Holmen's diversified portfolio of hydro, wind, and bioenergy sources, as well as its strong operational efficiency, contribute to its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Paperboard

A dense and stiff paperboard used for packaging, graphical and industrial applications

Packaging Paper

A range of paper grades used for packaging, including kraft paper, sack paper and specialty paper

Printing Paper

A range of paper grades used for printing, including offset, coated and uncoated paper

Sawn Timber

A range of sawn timber products, including construction timber, planed goods and glulam

Wood Products

A range of wood products, including plywood, oriented strand board (OSB) and glulam

Bioenergy

Renewable energy products, including biofuel and district heating

8. Holmen AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Holmen AB (publ) is medium due to the availability of alternative products in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Holmen AB (publ) is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and customer loyalty.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Holmen AB (publ) is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Holmen AB (publ) is low due to the high barriers to entry in the industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Holmen AB (publ) is high due to the competitive nature of the industry and the presence of several established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 5.03%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 94.97%
Equity Cost 5.63%
WACC 5.55%
Leverage 5.29%

11. Quality Control: Holmen AB (publ) passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Navigator

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
BillerudKorsnäs

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Stora Enso

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Holmen

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Mondi

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 2.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
SCA

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

359.4$

Current Price

359.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows