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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells luxury sports cars under the Aston Martin and Lagonda brand names worldwide.It also engages in the sale of parts; sale of vehicles; servicing of vehicles; and brand and motorsport activities.The company sells its vehicles through a network of dealers.


It has strategic technology agreement with Mercedes-Benz AG.Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Gaydon, the United Kingdom.

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1.b. Last Insights on AML

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc faced significant challenges over the past three months. The company's profit warnings and earnings guidance cuts were primarily driven by the impact of US tariffs, which added uncertainty to its operations. Weaker demand in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in China, also affected sales. Furthermore, the company cited the UK government's lack of proactive support for manufacturers and a cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover as factors contributing to its struggles. Adjusted EBIT/loss for 2025 is now forecast to be a loss of £110m.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Aston Martin's Q3 2025: A Resilient Performance Amidst Macroeconomic Headwinds

Aston Martin Lagonda's Q3 2025 financial performance was marked by a decline in revenue and wholesale volumes, largely due to macroeconomic challenges including US tariffs and weak demand in China. Revenue decreased by 26% year-over-year, while wholesale volumes dropped by 13% to 1,430 units. The total Average Selling Price (ASP) decreased by 22%, although the core ASP saw a 4% increase year-to-date. The company's EPS came in at -0.072, slightly worse than estimates of -0.06246. Despite these challenges, Aston Martin has taken decisive steps to strengthen its position, including price adjustments and cost optimization measures.

Publication Date: Nov -30

📋 Highlights
  • Wholesale Volumes & Revenue Decline:: Q3 wholesale volumes fell 13% YoY to 1,430 units, with revenue dropping 26% due to macroeconomic headwinds.
  • ASP Performance:: Total ASP decreased 22%, while core ASP rose 4% YTD, reflecting pricing strategy adjustments.
  • Valhalla Production Momentum:: 50%+ of 999 Valhalla slots sold; 150 units expected by year-end, with 40 earmarked for the U.S. in Q4.
  • Operational Efficiency Gains:: Manufacturing "right first time" rates improved from 55-65% to 96-98%, reducing critical suppliers monitored to 4-5.

Operational Highlights and Outlook

The company is encouraged by the response to its Valhalla model, with over 50% of the 999 production slots already sold. Deliveries of Valhalla commenced in Europe, and around 40 units are earmarked for the US in Q4 2025. Aston Martin expects to deliver around 150 Valhallas by the end of 2025. The company has also made significant progress in optimizing manufacturing and supplier processes, achieving a 96-98% 'right first time' performance.

Financial Guidance and Cost Management

Aston Martin has reduced its full-year 2025 CapEx guidance to around GBP 350 million and adjusted operating expenses, excluding D&A, to around GBP 275 million. The company expects an improved gross margin performance in Q4 and a materially improved financial performance in 2026. With a liquidity target of GBP 200-300 million, Aston Martin ended Q3 with GBP 248 million in liquidity. The company's transformation program has helped cap SG&A this year, and it expects to sustain similar levels next year despite inflationary effects.

Product Development and Demand Trends

Aston Martin has launched several derivatives, including new S variants, albeit at a slower rate than planned. The company is working to refresh all core nameplates with new models within the next five years, secured within its CapEx plan of GBP 1.6-1.7 billion. Demand trends vary across regions, with the US seeing some holdback due to tariffs and macro uncertainty, while the U.K. and Europe remain strong. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 30.2%.

Valuation Metrics

With a P/S Ratio of 0.45 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.63, the market appears to be pricing in a significant recovery. The current P/E Ratio stands at -2.3, reflecting the company's current loss-making position. The ROE and ROIC are also negative, at -36.18% and -6.75%, respectively, indicating the challenges Aston Martin faces in terms of profitability. However, the Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 6.5 suggests that the company's debt levels are relatively high compared to its EBITDA.

3. NewsRoom

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European Automakers Shares Climb After Trump Commits to Relax Fuel-Economy Rules

Dec -04

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Aston Martin puts 100 jobs at risk as Trump’s tariffs hit carmaker

Nov -11

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Ferrari Q3 Strength Driven by Red-Hot Purosangue Demand

Nov -07

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UK Growth Companies With Insider Ownership Up To 36%

Nov -07

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Gentex SEMA 2025: Vehicle Unveils, Aftermarket Tech, and New Product Launch with Ringbrothers

Nov -04

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Aston Martin Reviews Product Plans as Part of Wider Effort to Cut Costs

Oct -29

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Aston Martin losses surge by 800pc as it battles Trump tariffs

Oct -29

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Real estate CEO says the luxury industry is all about one thing: a ‘return on ego’

Oct -29

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.96%)

6. Segments

Vehicles

Expected Growth: 8%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury vehicles, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. The brand's exclusivity, high-performance capabilities, and sleek designs appeal to high-net-worth individuals. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, limited edition models, and expanding dealership network contribute to its growth momentum.

Parts

Expected Growth: 7%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 7% growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury vehicles, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. The company's focus on limited-edition models, bespoke customization, and exclusive brand experiences also contribute to growth. Additionally, investments in electric and hybrid powertrains, as well as strategic partnerships, enhance the brand's appeal and competitiveness.

Brands and Motorsport

Expected Growth: 10%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 10% growth in Brands and Motorsport is driven by increasing brand awareness, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's rich heritage, iconic designs, and high-performance capabilities attract luxury enthusiasts. Participation in prestigious motorsport events, such as Formula 1, further enhances the brand's reputation and appeal.

Servicing of Vehicles

Expected Growth: 8%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 8% growth in vehicle servicing is driven by increasing brand loyalty, expanding dealership network, and rising demand for luxury vehicles. Additionally, the company's focus on personalized customer experiences, extended warranty programs, and strategic partnerships with high-end service providers contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Vantage

A high-performance sports car with a powerful V8 engine, designed for speed and agility.

DBS Superleggera

A grand tourer with a powerful V12 engine, designed for comfort and luxury.

DB11

A grand tourer with a powerful V12 engine, designed for comfort and luxury.

Rapide AMR

A high-performance sports car with a powerful V12 engine, designed for speed and agility.

Lagonda All-Terrain Concept

A luxury SUV with a powerful electric powertrain, designed for comfort and versatility.

Aston Martin Valkyrie

A hypercar with a powerful V6 engine, designed for exceptional performance and speed.

Aston Martin Valhalla

A mid-engined supercar with a powerful V6 engine, designed for exceptional performance and handling.

8. Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc faces moderate threat from substitutes, as luxury car buyers have limited alternatives to its high-performance vehicles. However, the increasing popularity of electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences may lead to a shift towards more sustainable options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's customers have limited bargaining power due to the exclusive and niche nature of its luxury vehicles. The company's strong brand reputation and limited production volumes also reduce customer bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's suppliers have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for critical components. However, the company's strong relationships with suppliers and its ability to negotiate prices mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc faces a low threat from new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the luxury automotive industry. The company's strong brand reputation, high research and development costs, and regulatory hurdles make it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc operates in a highly competitive luxury automotive industry, with intense rivalry among established players such as Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Porsche. The company must continually innovate and differentiate its products to maintain market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 54.45%
Debt Cost 14.31%
Equity Weight 45.55%
Equity Cost 14.31%
WACC 14.31%
Leverage 119.53%

11. Quality Control: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.65$

Current Price

0.65$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows