Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (AML.L) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells luxury sports cars under the Aston Martin and Lagonda brand names worldwide.It also engages in the sale of parts; sale of vehicles; servicing of vehicles; and brand and motorsport activities.The company sells its vehicles through a network of dealers.

It has strategic technology agreement with Mercedes-Benz AG.Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Gaydon, the United Kingdom.

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1.b. Last Insights on AML

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc faced significant challenges over the past three months. The luxury carmaker issued a profit warning, citing an adjusted operating loss slightly below market consensus, due to tariff pressures and weak demand in North America and China. To mitigate this, the company agreed to sell naming rights for its Formula One team and plans to cut up to 20% of its workforce. Additionally, geopolitical and macroeconomic disruptions, particularly US and China tariffs, impacted the company's performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	44.8
Change Percentage	2.52%
Open	44.24
Previous Close	43.7
Market Cap ( Millions)	454
Volume	1690338
Year High	89
Year Low	35.4
M A 50	46.72
M A 200	63.21

FCF Yield	-17.99%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	-96.24%
Debt / Equity	528.42%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	328.52%
Price To Book	1.43
Price Earnings Ratio	-0.76
Price To FCF	-5.56
Price To sales	0.25
EV / EBITDA	4.33

2. Aston Martin's 2025 Financial Performance: A Challenging Year with a Positive Outlook

Aston Martin reported a challenging 2025 with wholesale volumes down 10% at 5,448 units. The company's adjusted EBIT decreased to a negative GBP 189 million. The actual EPS came out at '-0.3413', significantly worse than estimates at '-0.00939'. The average selling price increased by more than 5% to GBP 185,000, driven by the expansion of its core lineup with high-performance derivatives.

Publication Date: Mar -03

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Valhalla Launch:
                                                Achieved 152 deliveries in Q4 2025, its first mid-engine plug-in hybrid supercar, with 500 units targeted for 2026.
Financial Performance:
                                                Adjusted EBIT -GBP 189M (vs. prior year), wholesale down 10% to 5,448 units, and depreciation down 16% to GBP 297M.
Order Book & Pricing:
                                                Core vehicles have a 5-month order backlog, with average selling price rising >5% to GBP 185,000.
Balance Sheet:
                                                GBP 1.38B net debt (12.8x leverage), GBP 250M liquidity, and GBP 410M free cash flow (up GBP 18M YoY).

                                

Financial Highlights

The company's gross margin was impacted by lower specials volumes, warranty costs, and dealer support. Despite this, Aston Martin expects a material improvement in financial performance in 2026, driven by an enhanced product mix, benefits from the ongoing transformation program, and a disciplined approach to operations. As Doug Lafferty mentioned, "Valhalla's gross margin is above the group average and significantly above 40%."

Valuation Metrics

Analyzing Aston Martin's valuation metrics, we see a 'P/E Ratio' of -0.72, 'P/S Ratio' of 0.23, and 'EV/EBITDA' of 4.28. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio stands at 3.29, indicating a relatively high debt burden. The 'Free Cash Flow Yield (%)' is -19.03, suggesting that the company's free cash flow is not sufficient to meet its financial obligations.

Operational Updates

Aston Martin's product portfolio is well-established, with a diverse lineup of models. The company is driving operating leverage in 2026, which will support improved financial performance and profitable growth. The Valhalla program established a new benchmark for Aston Martin product launches, and customer satisfaction scores have rocketed compared to the previous year across all new models.

Guidance for 2026

The company expects a materially improved financial performance in 2026, driven by the delivery of 500 Valhalla units, reduced costs, and improved working capital. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.3%. The company's guidance for 2026 includes a material improvement in free cash flow, with the majority of the outflow occurring in Q1 and stabilizing through Q2 to the end of the year.

3. NewsRoom

Aston Martin Valhalla First Drive: Britain's billion-dollar bet on a hypercar

Apr -04

Source:

YF puts Aston Martin's million-dollar supercar to the test

Mar -31

Source:

King suffers ‘disaster’ while unveiling plaque during visit to solar panel firm

Mar -27

Source:

Bentley considers cutting hundreds of UK jobs: What to know

Mar -17

Source:

2026 Corvette ZR1 first drive: The 'King of the Hill' is back

Mar -07

Source:

Aston Martin plans 20% cut in workforce as losses mount

Feb -26

Source:

Aston Martin to cut up to 20% of its workforce

Feb -25

Source:

Aston Martin Slams the Brakes as China Woes Bite

Feb -25

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.96%)

6. Segments

Vehicles

Expected Growth: 8%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury vehicles, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. The brand's exclusivity, high-performance capabilities, and sleek designs appeal to high-net-worth individuals. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships, limited edition models, and expanding dealership network contribute to its growth momentum.

Parts

Expected Growth: 7%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 7% growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury vehicles, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. The company's focus on limited-edition models, bespoke customization, and exclusive brand experiences also contribute to growth. Additionally, investments in electric and hybrid powertrains, as well as strategic partnerships, enhance the brand's appeal and competitiveness.

Brands and Motorsport

Expected Growth: 10%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 10% growth in Brands and Motorsport is driven by increasing brand awareness, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's rich heritage, iconic designs, and high-performance capabilities attract luxury enthusiasts. Participation in prestigious motorsport events, such as Formula 1, further enhances the brand's reputation and appeal.

Servicing of Vehicles

Expected Growth: 8%

Aston Martin Lagonda's 8% growth in vehicle servicing is driven by increasing brand loyalty, expanding dealership network, and rising demand for luxury vehicles. Additionally, the company's focus on personalized customer experiences, extended warranty programs, and strategic partnerships with high-end service providers contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Vantage

A high-performance sports car with a powerful V8 engine, designed for speed and agility.

DBS Superleggera

A grand tourer with a powerful V12 engine, designed for comfort and luxury.

DB11

A grand tourer with a powerful V12 engine, designed for comfort and luxury.

Rapide AMR

A high-performance sports car with a powerful V12 engine, designed for speed and agility.

Lagonda All-Terrain Concept

A luxury SUV with a powerful electric powertrain, designed for comfort and versatility.

Aston Martin Valkyrie

A hypercar with a powerful V6 engine, designed for exceptional performance and speed.

Aston Martin Valhalla

A mid-engined supercar with a powerful V6 engine, designed for exceptional performance and handling.

8. Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc faces moderate threat from substitutes, as luxury car buyers have limited alternatives to its high-performance vehicles. However, the increasing popularity of electric vehicles and changing consumer preferences may lead to a shift towards more sustainable options.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's customers have limited bargaining power due to the exclusive and niche nature of its luxury vehicles. The company's strong brand reputation and limited production volumes also reduce customer bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's suppliers have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for critical components. However, the company's strong relationships with suppliers and its ability to negotiate prices mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc faces a low threat from new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the luxury automotive industry. The company's strong brand reputation, high research and development costs, and regulatory hurdles make it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc operates in a highly competitive luxury automotive industry, with intense rivalry among established players such as Ferrari, Lamborghini, and Porsche. The company must continually innovate and differentiate its products to maintain market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	54.45%
Debt Cost	14.31%
Equity Weight	45.55%
Equity Cost	14.31%
WACC	14.31%
Leverage	119.53%

11. Quality Control: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc passed 1 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Dowlais

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 2.8

Quality: 1.6

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Piaggio

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Knaus Tabbert

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 1.7

Quality: 2.2

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Pierre et Vacances

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Polestar Automotive Holding UK

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Aston Martin

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 0.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

30.59%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

14.31%

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc - GB00BN7CG237

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on AML

1.c. Company Highlights

Weak Momentum

More Volatile

Lower Quality

Lower Growth

Cheaper

Revenues Miss

Lower Yield

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

2. Aston Martin's 2025 Financial Performance: A Challenging Year with a Positive Outlook

Financial Highlights

Valuation Metrics

Operational Updates

Guidance for 2026

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.96%)

6. Segments

Vehicles

Expected Growth: 8%

Parts

Expected Growth: 7%

Brands and Motorsport

Expected Growth: 10%

Servicing of Vehicles

Expected Growth: 8%

7. Detailed Products

Vantage

DBS Superleggera

DB11

Rapide AMR

Lagonda All-Terrain Concept

Aston Martin Valkyrie

Aston Martin Valhalla

8. Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc passed 1 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

0.45$

Current Price

0.45$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA