Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Greencore Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of convenience food products primarily in the United Kingdom and Ireland.The company provides various products, including sandwiches, salads, sushi, chilled snacking, chilled ready meals, chilled soups and sauces, chilled quiche, ambient sauces and pickles, and frozen Yorkshire Puddings.It is also involved in the trading of Irish ingredients; finance activities; and property business.


The company supplies its products to supermarkets, convenience and travel retail outlets, discounters, coffee shops, foodservice, and other retailers.Greencore Group plc was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on GNC

Greencore Group plc's recent performance was negatively impacted by escalating costs and expected price increases for supermarket sandwiches. The UK's biggest manufacturer, Greencore, warned of an "unprecedented" jump in costs due to the UK's Chancellor, Rachel Reeves's, Budget. This increase in costs is likely to lead to higher prices for supermarket sandwiches, potentially affecting consumer demand and sales. The company's short-term outlook is uncertain, with potential negative impacts on its revenue and profitability.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Greencore's FY '25 Results: A Record Year for Profitability

Greencore's financial performance in FY '25 was impressive, with revenue reaching nearly GBP 2 billion, up 7.7% year-on-year, driven by new business wins, underlying volume and mix growth, and inflation and pricing impacts. Adjusted operating profit was GBP 125.7 million, up 28.9% year-on-year, with an adjusted operating margin of 6.5%, up 110 basis points. The company's EPS was slightly below estimates, coming in at '-0.0008' relative to estimates at '0.057'. Despite this, the company's strong cash flow generation was notable, with a free cash inflow of GBP 120.5 million, and a leverage of 0.4x net debt to EBITDA.

Publication Date: Dec -02

📋 Highlights
  • Record Profitability: Achieved 15% ROIC, up 350 basis points YoY, exceeding medium-term targets with GBP 125.7M adjusted operating profit (up 28.9% YoY).
  • Strong Revenue Growth: GBP 2B revenue (7.7% YoY growth), driven by 2.9% new business wins, 2.8% volume/mix growth, and 2% pricing/inflation impacts.
  • Free Cash Flow & Dividend Growth: GBP 120.5M free cash inflow, 0.4x net debt/EBITDA leverage, and a 30% dividend increase to 2.6p per share.
  • Bakkavor Synergies: Expected GBP 80M cost synergies post-acquisition, with GBP 40M transition costs in 2026, creating a UK convenience food leader.
  • Innovation & Automation Drive: Launched 534 new products, 4% productivity gain in units per labor hour, and GBP 50M FY '26 capex for next-gen automation and efficiency.

Operational Excellence and Innovation

The company's core business is in a great place, with commercial and operational excellence programs driving profitability. Greencore has launched 534 new products this year, demonstrating a strong track record of innovation. The company's operational excellence model continues to deliver, with units per labor hour up 4% from FY '24 and up 10% since FY '23. The company has also set up two new centers of excellence to target the next set of opportunities, focusing on next-gen automation and group logistics.

Strategic Acquisition and Integration

The acquisition of Bakkavor is progressing to plan, with a positive Phase 1 decision from the CMA, and is expected to close in early 2026. The combination is expected to create a UK convenience food champion, unlocking at least GBP 80 million in cost synergies and creating significant optionality on capital allocation. The company has made progress on integration planning, with a cross-functional team and central integration management office now up and running.

Valuation and Outlook

With a current P/E Ratio of 19.99 and EV/EBITDA of 8.15, the market seems to be pricing in a certain level of growth and profitability. The company's ROIC of 15% is well above its cost of capital, indicating a strong ability to generate returns. For FY '26, the company expects another year of profitable growth, with trading having started well, and analysts estimate revenue growth at 2.1%. The company's focus on automation, line balancing, and procurement is expected to drive margin growth, with a target of 7% operating margin over the medium term.

Dividend and Cash Flow

The Board recommends a dividend of 2.6p per share, up 30% year-on-year, representing a dividend yield of 0.82%. The company's strong cash flow generation is expected to continue, with a free cash flow yield of 13.21%. The company's cash conversion is expected to remain ahead of the 55% target set at the Capital Markets Day.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Dec -04

Source:

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Dec -03

Source:

Card image cap

December 2025's European Undervalued Small Caps With Insider Buying

Dec -03

Source:

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Dec -02

Source:

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Dec -01

Source:

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Nov -28

Source:

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Nov -27

Source:

Card image cap

Form 8.3

Nov -26

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.31%)

6. Segments

Food to Go

Expected Growth: 3%

Greencore's Food to Go segment growth is driven by increasing demand for convenient, healthy, and portable food options, particularly among busy professionals and students. Expanding distribution channels, such as forecourts and high street locations, and investments in digital capabilities also contribute to growth.

Other Convenience

Expected Growth: 1%

Greencore's Other Convenience segment growth is driven by increasing demand for convenient, healthy, and sustainable food options, particularly among busy professionals and families. Expanding distribution channels, innovative product offerings, and strategic partnerships also contribute to growth. Furthermore, the segment benefits from the trend towards outsourcing food preparation to third-party providers, driving demand for Greencore's services.

7. Detailed Products

Sandwiches

Prepared sandwiches for retail and convenience stores

Salads

Freshly prepared salads for retail and convenience stores

Sushi

Freshly prepared sushi for retail and convenience stores

Wraps

Prepared wraps for retail and convenience stores

Bakery

Freshly baked bread and pastries for retail and convenience stores

Coffee

Specialty coffee for retail and convenience stores

Fresh Fruit

Fresh fruit cups and snacks for retail and convenience stores

Meal Solutions

Prepared meal solutions for retail and convenience stores

8. Greencore Group plc's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Greencore Group plc operates in the food manufacturing industry, which has a moderate threat of substitutes. While there are some substitutes available, such as fresh food and other convenience food options, Greencore's products are differentiated by their convenience, quality, and brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Greencore Group plc's customers are primarily large retailers, who have some bargaining power due to their size and purchasing power. However, Greencore's strong relationships with its customers and its ability to provide customized products mitigate this power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Greencore Group plc's suppliers are primarily farmers and food manufacturers, who have some bargaining power due to their control over raw materials. However, Greencore's diversified supplier base and long-term contracts mitigate this power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the food manufacturing industry is low due to the high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and the need for specialized expertise and equipment.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The food manufacturing industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Greencore Group plc faces intense competition from other convenience food manufacturers, which drives innovation and pricing pressure.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 40.69%
Debt Cost 7.54%
Equity Weight 59.31%
Equity Cost 9.64%
WACC 8.79%
Leverage 68.62%

11. Quality Control: Greencore Group plc passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Premier Foods

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Raisio

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 4.9

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Fine Foods & Pharmaceuticals N.T.M.

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Greencore

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Humble Group

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 8.3

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 1.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Orior

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 0.9

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

2.5$

Current Price

2.5$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows