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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

BPER Banca SpA provides banking products and services for individuals, and businesses and professionals in Italy and internationally.The company operates through Retail, Private, Corporate, Large Corporate, Finance, Corporate Center, and Other Assets segments.It offers loans, mortgages, insurance and social security, accounts, and digital banking related services; cards; and investments and savings products and services.


The company also provides financing and leasing, credit management and factoring, collection and payment, import and export, liquidity and investment management, digital, and other services.In addition, it offers wealth management services comprising portfolio management, global advisory, finance advice, and wealth advisory services; insurance investment products; and funds and SICAVs. As of December 31, 2021, it operated through a network of 1742 branches.The company was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on BPE

BPER Banca SpA's recent performance has been positively influenced by its solid financial standing and strategic positioning in the Italian banking sector. The company's adaptability to evolving business conditions, including shifting regulatory landscapes and market trends, has been a key driver. Additionally, BPER's focus on digital transformation and innovation has enabled it to stay competitive. With a stable outlook, investors are closely monitoring the company's progress, particularly in light of recent earnings releases and potential opportunities for growth, amidst a backdrop of dovish signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. BPER's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

BPER's Q3 2025 financials show total revenues of EUR 4.6 billion and a net profit of EUR 1.5 billion. On a like-for-like basis, net profit was EUR 1.3 billion, up 20% from the previous year. The EPS came out at '0.289', in line with estimates. The bank's return on tangible equity was 19.8%, and the CET1 ratio is solid at 15.1%. The cost/income ratio stands at 46%, indicating a good level of operational efficiency.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Profitability and Capital Strength: Net profit of EUR 1.5 billion with a return on tangible equity of 19.8% and a CET1 ratio of 15.1%, up to 15.7% post-Alba Leasing deconsolidation.
  • Merger Synergies and Integration: EUR 290 million in synergies by 2027, with integration costs of EUR 400 million and a revised headcount of 22,900 post-BPSO merger.
  • Cost Efficiency and Revenue Growth: Cost/income ratio of 46.8% (down 3.5% YoY), commission income up 6% (37.8% of total revenues), and new lending growth of 20% to EUR 15 billion.
  • Robust Asset Quality: Gross NPE ratio of 2.7%, net NPE ratio of 1.2% (lowest in Italian banking), and an NPE coverage ratio of 56.3%.
  • Future Guidance and Dividend Strategy: Target net income above EUR 2.1 billion in 2027, with a 75% payout ratio and EUR 0.10 interim dividend (17.8% of accumulated profit).

Revenue Growth Drivers

Total revenues were up 2% from the previous year, driven by resilient net interest income and robust commission growth. The ratio of net commission income to total revenues rose to 37.8%. Net interest income decreased by 3.6%, but commercial actions aimed at increasing loan volumes have been effective, with new lending increasing by 20% to almost EUR 15 billion. Commission income grew by 6%, driven by wealth management products, and total financial assets reached EUR 415 billion.

Asset Quality and Capital Position

Asset quality remains healthy, with a gross NPE ratio of 2.7%. The bank's conservative approach is reflected in a high NPE coverage ratio of 56.3%. The bank's net NPE ratios remained almost flat at 1.2%, one of the lowest in the Italian banking system. The CET1 ratio stood at 15.1% at the end of September, which would be 15.7% following Alba Leasing deconsolidation. BPER continues to generate a high level of organic capital, with approximately 272 basis points or EUR 1.7 billion in the last 9 months.

Valuation and Outlook

Using the current Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of 1.27 and Dividend Yield of 5.84%, the market seems to be pricing in a relatively stable outlook for the bank. The bank's guidance remains unchanged, with a combined cost/income ratio expected to be below 48% and approximately EUR 300 million of integration costs related to the merger. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 10.7%. The CEO, Gianni Franco Papa, confirmed that the company targets a net income above EUR 2 billion for 2027, indicating a positive outlook for the bank's future performance.

3. NewsRoom

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.18%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: 1.2%

The 1.2% growth in Retail segment of BPER Banca SpA is driven by increasing demand for consumer credit, mortgage lending, and deposit growth. Additionally, the bank's strategic expansion into new regions, digitalization of services, and cost-cutting initiatives have contributed to the growth.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 1.1%

BPER Banca SpA's 1.1% corporate growth is driven by a strong focus on digital transformation, cost containment, and strategic investments in key business areas. The bank's solid capital position, improved asset quality, and robust risk management practices also contribute to its growth. Additionally, the Italian economy's moderate growth and increasing demand for credit also support the bank's expansion.

Finance

Expected Growth: 1.3%

BPER Banca SpA's 1.3% growth is driven by a strong focus on digital transformation, cost containment, and strategic investments in key business areas. The bank's solid capital position, robust risk management, and diversified revenue streams also contribute to its growth. Additionally, the Italian economy's gradual recovery and increasing demand for banking services support BPER Banca's expansion.

Large Corporate

Expected Growth: 1.1%

The 1.1% growth of Large Corporate segment in BPER Banca SpA is driven by a strong loan portfolio expansion, fueled by a favorable economic environment and increasing demand for credit from large Italian corporations. Additionally, the bank's strategic focus on relationship banking and tailored financial solutions has contributed to the growth.

Corporate Center

Expected Growth: 1.0%

BPER Banca SpA's Corporate Center growth is driven by strategic cost management, efficient capital allocation, and a focus on digital transformation. The 1.0 growth rate is supported by the bank's efforts to optimize its organizational structure, streamline operations, and invest in innovative technologies, enabling it to improve profitability and competitiveness in the Italian banking market.

Private

Expected Growth: 1.1%

BPER Banca SpA's 1.1% private segment growth is driven by increasing demand for digital banking services, strategic partnerships, and expansion into underserved markets. Additionally, the bank's focus on customer experience, cost optimization, and risk management has contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the Italian economy's moderate growth and low interest rates have also supported the segment's expansion.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

BPER Banca SpA's 1.2% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for asset management services, expansion of bancassurance products, and growth in fees from payment services. Additionally, the bank's strategic partnerships and investments in digital platforms have contributed to the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

BPER Banca SpA offers a range of retail banking services, including current accounts, savings accounts, credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages.

Corporate Banking

BPER Banca SpA provides corporate banking services, including cash management, trade finance, and lending solutions, to support businesses of all sizes.

Private Banking

BPER Banca SpA offers private banking services, including wealth management, investment advice, and portfolio management, to high net worth individuals.

Insurance Services

BPER Banca SpA offers a range of insurance products, including life insurance, non-life insurance, and pension plans, to individuals and businesses.

Investment Banking

BPER Banca SpA provides investment banking services, including M&A advisory, equity and debt capital markets, and restructuring, to corporate clients.

Asset Management

BPER Banca SpA offers asset management services, including mutual funds, pension funds, and discretionary portfolio management, to individual and institutional investors.

8. BPER Banca SpA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for BPER Banca SpA is moderate, as customers have alternative banking options available.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low, as BPER Banca SpA has a large customer base and offers a wide range of financial services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate, as BPER Banca SpA relies on a network of suppliers for its operations, but has some flexibility in choosing its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low, as the banking industry has high barriers to entry and requires significant capital and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high, as BPER Banca SpA operates in a highly competitive banking industry with many established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 63.51%
Debt Cost 11.01%
Equity Weight 36.49%
Equity Cost 11.01%
WACC 11.01%
Leverage 174.08%

11. Quality Control: BPER Banca SpA passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Unicaja Banco

A-Score: 7.1/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.3

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Stock-Card
FinecoBank

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Banca Sondrio

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BPER Banca

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Mediobanca

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Oberbank

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

10.38$

Current Price

10.38$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows