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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Millicom International Cellular S.A. provides cable and mobile services in Latin America and Africa.The company offers mobile services, including mobile data and voice; short message service; and mobile financial services, such as payments, money transfers, international remittances, savings, real-time loans, and micro-insurance.It also provides cable and other fixed services, including broadband, content, fixed voice, and pay-TV to residential consumers; and fixed, managed services, cloud and security solutions, and value-added services to small, medium, and large businesses, as well as governmental entities.


As of December 31, 2021, the company served 44.9 million mobile customers; and 12.7 million cable homes.It markets its products and services under Tigo and Tigo Business brands.The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Luxembourg.

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1.b. Last Insights on TIGO

Millicom International Cellular S.A.'s recent performance was positively driven by its acquisition of Telefónica in Uruguay, strengthening its regional footprint in South America. The company reported quarterly earnings of $0.34 per share, surpassing last year's $0.3 per share. Additionally, its Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted growth prospects. Despite a decrease in stake by Teacher Retirement System of Texas, Millicom's expansion efforts, such as the acquisition, are expected to drive growth. A failed proposed transaction in Costa Rica doesn't seem to deter the company's ambitions.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Millicom's Strong Q3 Earnings: A Reflection of Operational Excellence

Millicom's financial performance in Q3 was impressive, with service revenue totaling $1.34 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 0.5%. However, when excluding the FX impact, underlying service revenue growth actually accelerated from 2.4% year-over-year growth in Q2 to 3.5% year-over-year growth in Q3. The company's adjusted EBITDA reached a record $695 million, with an all-time high 48.9% margin. EPS came in at $0.34, below estimates of $0.55. The company's equity free cash flow totaled $243 million, an 18.1% increase year-over-year.

Publication Date: Nov -14

📋 Highlights
  • Record Adjusted EBITDA:: Reached $695 million with a 48.9% margin, the highest in company history.
  • Mobile Revenue Growth:: Mobile service revenue grew 5.5% YoY, driven by ARPU expansion and 14% postpaid customer growth (8.9 million total).
  • Home Business Momentum:: Added 60,000 new home subscribers (5.4% YoY growth) with churn in low single digits due to convergence strategy.
  • Colombia Revenue Surge:: Service revenue hit $364 million YoY (+6.5%), nearly surpassing Guatemala for the first time.
  • Equity Free Cash Flow:: Generated $243 million in Q3, totaling $638 million in 9 months (+18.1% YoY) with net leverage reduced to 2.09x.

Operational Highlights

The company's relentless focus on commercial execution continues to deliver solid results, both in consumer and business segments. Millicom added nearly 250,000 postpaid mobile customers and about 60,000 new home subscribers. The mobile business delivered its strongest organic growth since 2021, with mobile service revenue up 5.5% year-over-year. The home business also performed well, with 60,000 new customers added, up 5.4% year-over-year. As Marcelo Benitez noted, "Our relentless focus on commercial execution continues to deliver solid results, both in consumer segment and in the business segments."

Segment Performance

Guatemala and Colombia were the standout performers, with local currency service revenue growing 3.6% and 6.5% year-over-year, respectively. Panama's service revenue remained largely flat year-over-year, but the company added nearly 65,000 postpaid subscribers to its customer base. The company's B2B segment also continued to show strong momentum.

Valuation and Outlook

Millicom's valuation metrics appear reasonable, with a P/E Ratio of 8.84, P/B Ratio of 2.38, and EV/EBITDA of 4.85. The company's dividend yield is attractive at 8.93%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.3%. With its strong operational performance and reasonable valuation, Millicom appears well-positioned for future growth. The company's guidance for 2026 CapEx of around $700 million and expected leverage peak of around 2.5x also suggests a stable financial position.

Key Takeaways

Millicom's Q3 earnings demonstrate the company's ability to execute on its strategic priorities, driving growth in key markets and delivering strong profitability. While EPS was below estimates, the company's operational performance and valuation metrics suggest a positive outlook. With its focus on commercial execution and investment in infrastructure, Millicom is well-positioned for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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What Makes Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO) a Strong Momentum Stock: Buy Now?

Nov -20

Source: zacks.com

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Best Value Stock to Buy for Nov. 20th

Nov -20

Source: zacks.com

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Mason Hawkins' Strategic Moves: Rayonier Inc. Takes Center Stage with 6.09% Portfolio Share

Nov -14

Source: gurufocus.com

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Brandes Investment Partners, LP Significantly Reduces Vanguard Value ETF by 99.61%

Nov -14

Source: gurufocus.com

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Liberty Latin America and Millicom Provide Update on Proposed Costa Rica Transaction

Nov -13

Source: businesswire.com

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Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Millicom International Cellular SA (TIGO) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

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Millicom International Cellular SA $TIGO Stake Decreased by Teacher Retirement System of Texas

Nov -05

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.13%)

6. Segments

Mobile

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Mobile segment growth of 2.5% driven by increasing smartphone penetration, data usage, and 4G network expansion in Latin America and Africa. Additionally, Millicom's focus on digital services, such as mobile financial services and streaming, contributes to growth. Cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies also support the segment's growth.

Fixed and Other Services

Expected Growth: 1.8%

The 1.8% growth in Fixed and Other Services from Millicom International Cellular S.A. is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and data services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships to enhance service offerings. Additionally, investments in network infrastructure and technology upgrades have improved service quality, attracting and retaining customers.

Telephone and Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Millicom's Telephone and Equipment segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for high-speed data services, expansion of 4G networks in Latin America, and growing adoption of smartphones in emerging markets. Additionally, the company's focus on cost savings initiatives and operational efficiencies also contribute to the segment's growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Millicom's 1.5% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion of cable TV and broadband offerings, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, growing adoption of mobile financial services, such as mobile money and microfinance, contributes to the segment's growth.

Mobile Financial Services

Expected Growth: 3.0%

The 3.0% growth in Mobile Financial Services from Millicom International Cellular S.A. is driven by increasing mobile penetration, rising demand for digital payment solutions, and strategic partnerships with financial institutions. Additionally, the expansion of mobile money services into new markets and the growth of e-commerce transactions also contribute to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Voice

Mobile voice services allowing customers to make and receive calls, send SMS and MMS, and access mobile internet

Mobile Data

Mobile data services providing high-speed internet access on mobile devices

Fixed Line

Fixed line services providing high-speed internet, voice, and TV services to homes and businesses

Cable TV

Cable TV services providing access to a range of TV channels and on-demand content

Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH)

High-speed fiber-optic internet services providing fast and reliable connectivity

Digital Services

Digital services including online storage, cybersecurity, and digital entertainment

8. Millicom International Cellular S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Millicom International Cellular S.A. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the high switching costs for customers and the lack of viable alternatives to mobile telecommunications services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Millicom International Cellular S.A. faces significant bargaining power from its customers, particularly large corporate clients who can negotiate better rates and terms.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Millicom International Cellular S.A. has a diverse supplier base, and the company's scale and bargaining power enable it to negotiate favorable terms with its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the telecommunications industry, including the need for significant capital investments and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with multiple players competing for market share, which leads to intense rivalry among firms.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 66.12%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 33.88%
Equity Cost 9.58%
WACC 5.85%
Leverage 195.13%

11. Quality Control: Millicom International Cellular S.A. passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Millicom

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 3.7

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Value: 4.4

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Itissalat Al-Maghrib

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Airtel Africa

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Elisa

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.7

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1&1

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

50.2$

Current Price

50.2$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows