Telia Company AB (publ) (TELIA.ST) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Telia Company AB (publ) provides communication services in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.The company offers mobile, broadband, television, and fixed-line services to businesses, individuals, families, and communities.It provides networking, cloud and security, mobility, enterprise mobile network, contact center, managed mobility services, collaboration solutions, enterprise telephony, Internet of Things (IoT), carrier ethernet, dedicated internet access, wavelengths, IP Transit, dark fiber, colocation, and IoT connectivity solutions, as well as broadcasting and content production services, and customer financing services.

The company markets its products and services under the Telia, halebop, Fello, TV4, C More, MTV, MyCall, OneCall, Phonero, Call me, Mit tele, Diil, Lmt Okarte, Telia Latvija, Cloudy, Tet, and Ezys brands for logistics, public transport, manufacturing, retail, utilities, building, and public sector industries.It has 18.1 million mobile subscriptions, 1.0 million fixed telephony subscriptions, 2.9 fixed million broadband subscriptions, and 3.4 million TV subscriptions.The company was formerly known as TeliaSonera AB (publ) and changed its name to Telia Company AB (publ) in April 2016.

Telia Company AB (publ) was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Solna, Sweden.

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1.b. Last Insights on TELIA

Telia Company AB's recent performance was driven by robust EBITDA growth, with the company maintaining dividend stability amidst strategic changes and market challenges. The successful 5G standalone slice handover across multiple countries with Nokia and the Finnish Defense Forces marks a major advancement in the company's 5G capabilities. Additionally, the company's ability to participate in high-profile defense operations demonstrates its strategic importance and potential for future growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	38.44
Change Percentage	0.16%
Open	38.35
Previous Close	38.38
Market Cap ( Millions)	151150
Volume	4874675
Year High	38.71
Year Low	29.6
M A 50	36.79
M A 200	35.76

FCF Yield	7.38%
Dividend Yield	5.20%
ROE	8.06%
Debt / Equity	169.15%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	238.55%
Price To Book	2.87
Price Earnings Ratio	35.09
Price To FCF	13.55
Price To sales	1.81
EV / EBITDA	7.28

2. Telia Company Beats Expectations with Strong Q3 2025 Results

Telia Company's Q3 2025 financial performance was robust, with service revenue growth of 1%, driven by Sweden and the Baltics, while EBITDA growth was 4.4%, led by Sweden and Finland. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at 0.59, beating analyst estimates of 0.44. The company's CapEx was SEK 12.5 billion on a 12-month rolling basis, and it expects to lower its full-year CapEx outlook to around SEK 13 billion. The improved financial performance was accompanied by a strong free cash flow of SEK 6.9 billion in the first 9 months, with the company upgrading its full-year free cash flow outlook to around SEK 8 billion.

Publication Date: Oct -25

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Group-wide NPS & Customer Satisfaction Improvements:
                                                Enhanced in Sweden, Finland, Norway, with Sweden's SKI survey showing strong consumer trust.
EBITDA Growth of 4.4%:
                                                Driven by Sweden (strong performance) and Finland (improved service revenue trends), despite Norway's challenges.
Free Cash Flow Outlook Raised to SEK 8 Billion:
                                                Reflects SEK 6.9 billion generated in H1 2025 and CapEx discipline (reduced to SEK 13 billion full-year guidance).
Leverage Ratio Declined to 1.93x:
                                                Post-TV & Media transaction closure, down from 2.09x Q3 2024, strengthening balance sheet flexibility.
Mission-Critical Revenue Growth Target:
                                                Expected to more than double from 2023 to 2027, with Sweden driving 2% service revenue and 4% EBITDA growth targets.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was marked by improved customer satisfaction in Sweden, Finland, and Norway, with a group-wide Net Promoter Score (NPS) improvement. Telia Sweden performed well, with strong outcomes in the 2025 SKI survey and new customers signing up across mobile, broadband, and TV. In Finland, the company saw improving service revenue growth trends driven by customer satisfaction improvements and network upgrades.

Regional Performance

Norway presented a challenging quarter, but the company expects to have reached the low point in service revenue. The company has launched a new value proposition in Norway and modernized its TV platform. Sweden's solid performance is expected to drive service revenue growth reacceleration in Q4, supported by project-based revenues.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 34.56 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.37, the market appears to have priced in a certain level of growth. The company's commitment to delivering on its 2027 free cash flow target of at least SEK 10 billion is supported by its CapEx discipline and cost savings. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.1%, indicating a moderate growth outlook. The Dividend Yield stands at 5.32%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors.

Guidance and Future Plans

The company guides for a normalized spectrum cost, with actual spectrum CapEx potentially varying around a rough average of SEK 650 million. Telia Company expects its real free cash flow to cover the dividend this year and remains committed to its progressive dividend policy. The TV and Media sale proceeds may be used for shareholder returns, but no decision has been made yet.

3. NewsRoom

Will Ericsson’s (OM:ERIC B) Extended Telia Deal Redefine Its 5G Edge in Nordic Markets?

Nov -19

Source:

Telia (OM:TELIA) Valuation: How Recent Gains Stack Up Against Analyst Expectations

Nov -19

Source:

Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights America Movil, Telia and TIM

Nov -19

Source:

3 Wireless Non-US Stocks Set to Thrive Against Industry Conundrums

Nov -18

Source:

Telia extends Ericsson RAN partnership in Sweden, Norway, Lithuania and Estonia

Nov -06

Source:

TeliaSonera (TLSNY) Moves to Buy: Rationale Behind the Upgrade

Oct -20

Source:

Telia Lietuva is reducing the number of managers and merging some units

Oct -07

Source:

Does Recent CEO Change Signal a Fresh Opportunity for Telia in 2025?

Sep -20

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.19%)

6. Segments

Mobile Service - Mobile End User

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Telia Company AB's 2.5% growth in Mobile Service - Mobile End User segment is driven by increasing mobile penetration in the Nordic region, rising demand for data-intensive services, and the company's strategic focus on 5G network expansion and digitalization. Additionally, competitive pricing and innovative offerings have contributed to customer acquisition and retention.

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Telia Company AB's equipment segment growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing demand for 5G network infrastructure, IoT devices, and cloud-based services. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and strategic partnerships contribute to the growth. Furthermore, the rising need for network upgrades and expansions in the Nordic region also supports the segment's growth.

Fixed Service - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Broadband growth of 2.2% is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet, government initiatives for digitalization, and investments in fiber-optic infrastructure. Additionally, the company's focus on customer experience, competitive pricing, and bundled services contribute to the growth.

Fixed Service - Television

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Television segment growth of 1.5% is driven by increasing demand for high-quality content, expansion of fiber-optic networks, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on bundling TV with broadband and mobile services, as well as investments in digitalization and customer experience, contribute to the growth.

Fixed Service - Business Solutions

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Business Solutions segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for digitalization and cloud-based services among Nordic enterprises, coupled with the company's strategic investments in 5G and IoT infrastructure, as well as its strong market position and customer relationships.

Advertising

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Telia Company AB's 3.0% advertising growth is driven by increasing demand for digital marketing services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. The company's focus on data-driven advertising solutions and investments in emerging technologies such as AI and 5G also contribute to its growth.

Fixed Service - Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Telia Company AB's Fixed Service - Other segment growth of 1.2% is driven by increasing demand for digital services, expansion of fiber-optic networks, and growing adoption of IoT solutions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost optimization and operational efficiency has contributed to the growth.

Mobile Service - Other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Telia Company AB's Mobile Service - Other segment growth of 2.0% is driven by increasing demand for mobile broadband and IoT services, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in 5G network infrastructure and digitalization initiatives have improved customer experience, leading to increased revenue and market share.

Other Service

Expected Growth: 1.0%

Telia Company AB's 1.0% growth in Other Services is driven by increasing demand for digital services, such as IoT and data analytics, as well as growth in IT services and cybersecurity solutions. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation and investments in 5G technology are expected to contribute to future growth.

Fixed Service - Telephony

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Telia Company AB's 1.8% growth in Fixed Service - Telephony is driven by increasing demand for high-speed internet and bundled services, coupled with investments in network infrastructure and customer experience enhancements. Additionally, the company's focus on converged services and digital transformation initiatives contribute to the growth.

Mobile Service - Interconnect

Expected Growth: 2.1%

Telia Company AB's Mobile Service - Interconnect segment growth of 2.1% is driven by increasing mobile data traffic, rising demand for 4G and 5G services, and growing roaming revenues. Additionally, strategic partnerships and network investments have improved interconnectivity, attracting more customers and boosting revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Telia Company provides mobile voice and data services to individuals and businesses, including mobile broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services.

Fixed Broadband

Telia Company offers fixed broadband services, including fiber-based broadband, to provide high-speed internet access to homes and businesses.

TV and Media Services

Telia Company provides TV and media services, including IPTV, streaming services, and on-demand content, to individuals and businesses.

Cloud and IT Services

Telia Company offers cloud and IT services, including cloud infrastructure, managed services, and cybersecurity solutions, to businesses and organizations.

Network and Infrastructure Services

Telia Company provides network and infrastructure services, including data center services, colocation, and network connectivity, to businesses and organizations.

IoT and M2M Services

Telia Company offers IoT and M2M services, including device management, data analytics, and connectivity solutions, to businesses and organizations.

8. Telia Company AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Telia Company AB (publ) faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for telecommunications services. However, the increasing adoption of over-the-top (OTT) services and VoIP technology poses a moderate threat to the company's traditional voice and messaging services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Telia Company AB (publ) has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's diversified product offerings and strong brand presence reduce the likelihood of customers switching to competitors.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Telia Company AB (publ) relies on a few large suppliers for network equipment and infrastructure. While the company has some bargaining power due to its size, suppliers may still exert some pressure on prices and delivery terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The telecommunications industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital expenditures and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Telia Company AB (publ) to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The telecommunications industry is highly competitive, with multiple players vying for market share. Telia Company AB (publ) faces intense competition from rivals such as Tele2, Telenor, and 3 Sweden, which may lead to pricing pressures and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	64.71%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	35.29%
Equity Cost	4.86%
WACC	4.27%
Leverage	183.39%

11. Quality Control: Telia Company AB (publ) passed 0 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Proximus

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 9.3

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Freenet

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Telia Company

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.4

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

United Internet

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 3.0

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Tele2

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

1&1

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 3.3

Quality: 4.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-4.73%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

4.27%

Telia Company AB (publ) - SE0000667925

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on TELIA

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Lower Quality

Less Volatile

Earnings Miss

Revenues Miss

Earnings Beats

Strong Momentum

Revenues Beats

Average Growth

2. Telia Company Beats Expectations with Strong Q3 2025 Results

Operational Highlights

Regional Performance

Valuation and Outlook

Guidance and Future Plans

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.19%)

6. Segments

Mobile Service - Mobile End User

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Equipment

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Fixed Service - Broadband

Expected Growth: 2.2%

Fixed Service - Television

Expected Growth: 1.5%

Fixed Service - Business Solutions

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Advertising

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Fixed Service - Other

Expected Growth: 1.2%

Mobile Service - Other

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Other Service

Expected Growth: 1.0%

Fixed Service - Telephony

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Mobile Service - Interconnect

Expected Growth: 2.1%

7. Detailed Products

Mobile Services

Fixed Broadband

TV and Media Services

Cloud and IT Services

Network and Infrastructure Services

IoT and M2M Services

8. Telia Company AB (publ)'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Telia Company AB (publ) passed 0 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA