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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

OCI N.V. produces and distributes natural gas-based products and industrial chemicals to agricultural, transportation, and industrial customers.It operates through Methanol US, Methanol Europe, Nitrogen US, Nitrogen Europe, and Fertiglobe segments.The company offers anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution, calcium ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate, nitrogen argon, aqueous ammonia, nitric acid, urea solution, bio-methanol, methanol, melamine, and diesel exhaust fluid, as well as and other nitrogen products.


It also owns and operates an ammonia export terminal at the port of Rotterdam.The company has operations in Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Oceania.OCI N.V. has a strategic partnership with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company.


OCI N.V. was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

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1.b. Last Insights on OCI

OCI N.V.'s recent performance has been negatively impacted by growing caution among analysts regarding its future cash flows and revenue growth. The company's fair value estimate was revised downward from €6.62 to €5.82, and the discount rate increased from 6.79% to 7.12% (source). Additionally, analysts have expressed mixed sentiment, citing softer revenue growth expectations and a slightly increased perception of risk, with the discount rate rising to 7.30% (source). These changes reflect a tempered outlook on the company's prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. OCI Global's H1 2025 Earnings: Navigating Challenges and Opportunities

OCI Global reported revenue from continuing operations of $567 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1 million for H1 2025. The company's European Nitrogen segment generated $21 million in adjusted EBITDA, significantly down from $48 million in H1 2024, primarily due to a 30-38% year-on-year increase in European natural gas prices and maintenance-related issues. The net loss attributable to shareholders was $331 million, largely reflecting non-cash foreign exchange losses, a $98 million cost overrun at Beaumont New Ammonia, and debt modification adjustments. The actual EPS came out at $0.02, beating estimates of $0.006.

Publication Date: Oct -27

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue & Adjusted EBITDA:: H1 2025 revenue from continuing operations was $567 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $1 million, reflecting significant operational challenges.
  • European Nitrogen Decline:: Adjusted EBITDA dropped to $21 million (vs. $48 million in H1 2024) due to 30-38% higher European gas prices and maintenance costs.
  • Methanol Sale & Project Costs:: Sold methanol business for $1.6 billion (retaining 13% stake), while Beaumont New Ammonia nears completion with $1.65 billion in total investment.
  • Net Loss & Key Drivers:: $331 million net loss due to non-cash forex losses, $98 million Beaumont overruns, and debt adjustments, excluding operational cash flows.
  • Shareholder Returns & Debt:: Distributed $1.7 billion in 2025 (total $7 billion since 2022) and repaid $2.4 billion in debt, signaling strong capital return focus.

Segment Performance and Outlook

The European Nitrogen segment's decline in adjusted EBITDA was a significant drag on the company's overall performance. However, OCI expects to generate operating cash flows from its European Nitrogen production and terminal business. The company has also provided a run-rate EBITDA of $130 million to $150 million based on normalized gas prices and historical production capacity, excluding corporate overheads.

Strategic Developments

OCI completed the sale of its methanol business to Methanex for $1.6 billion, retaining a 13% stake. The company is also nearing completion of the Beaumont New Ammonia project, with first ammonia production expected by the end of 2025. Additionally, OCI announced a contemplated combination with Orascom Construction, which is expected to create value for shareholders. The proposed transaction is subject to board and shareholder approval.

Valuation and Return Metrics

OCI's current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/E Ratio' of 0.17, 'P/B Ratio' of 0.48, 'P/S Ratio' of 1.62, and 'EV/EBITDA' of 0.23. The 'Dividend Yield (%)' is 490.56, while the 'Free Cash Flow Yield (%)' is -30.48. The 'ROIC (%)' is -12.77, and 'ROE (%)' is 258.73. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio stands at 4.32. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.0%.

Shareholder Returns and Capital Allocation

OCI has distributed $1.7 billion to shareholders in 2025, with total distributions since 2022 reaching approximately $7 billion. The company intends to return $300 million to shareholders, but the timing and method are uncertain. OCI considers buybacks as a tool but will review capital allocation plans in the context of strategic files, the merger, and capital structure.

3. NewsRoom

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3 Promising European Penny Stocks With Market Caps Up To €2B

Nov -25

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How Recent Analyst Shifts Are Rewriting the Story for OCI

Nov -23

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Why The Narrative Around OCI Is Evolving Amid Analyst Revisions and Market Shifts

Nov -08

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OCI And 2 Other European Penny Stocks To Watch Closely

Oct -27

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How The Latest Analyst Updates Are Shaping OCI's Evolving Investment Story

Oct -23

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What Developments Are Shifting the Narrative for OCI’s Future Outlook?

Oct -09

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European Penny Stocks To Watch In August 2025

Aug -29

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OCI Confirms Q3 2025 USD 700 Million Extraordinary Cash Distribution

Aug -04

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.50%)

6. Segments

Nitrogen Europe

Expected Growth: 4.5%

OCI N.V.'s Nitrogen Europe segment is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for nitrogen-based fertilizers in European agriculture, supported by the EU's Common Agricultural Policy and growing focus on sustainable farming practices.

Methanol United States

Expected Growth: 4.5%

OCI N.V.'s methanol production in the US is driven by increasing demand from the energy sector, particularly in the production of clean energy sources such as biodiesel and dimethyl ether. Additionally, growth in the chemical industry and rising exports are expected to support the market's expansion.

Methanol Europe

Expected Growth: 4.5%

OCI N.V.'s methanol production and distribution in Europe is driven by increasing demand from the chemical, energy, and transportation sectors. Growing adoption of methanol as a clean energy source, rising production of methanol-based fuels, and expanding applications in the construction and pharmaceutical industries are expected to fuel growth.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Consolidation of financial positions drives growth, eliminating intercompany transactions and balances between OCI N.V. and its subsidiaries. This process enhances transparency, accuracy, and comparability of financial statements, attracting investors and improving overall market performance.

Other

Expected Growth: 4.5%

OCI N.V.'s 'Other' segment is expected to grow driven by increasing demand for energy storage and transportation, expansion of Natgasoline's production capacity, and OCI Partners' strategic location in the US Gulf Coast, providing access to growing LNG markets.

7. Detailed Products

Nitrogen

OCI N.V. produces nitrogen, a colorless, odorless, and tasteless gas used as a fertilizer, in industrial processes, and in the production of electronics and pharmaceuticals.

Methanol

OCI N.V. produces methanol, a chemical used in the production of plastics, adhesives, and fuels.

Melamine

OCI N.V. produces melamine, a chemical used in the production of plastics, adhesives, and laminates.

Urea

OCI N.V. produces urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer used in agriculture.

Ammonia

OCI N.V. produces ammonia, a chemical used in the production of fertilizers, plastics, and pharmaceuticals.

Soda Ash

OCI N.V. produces soda ash, a chemical used in the production of glass, detergents, and paper.

Calcium Carbide

OCI N.V. produces calcium carbide, a chemical used in the production of acetylene gas and other chemicals.

8. OCI N.V.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

OCI N.V. faces moderate threat from substitutes as cloud computing services are becoming increasingly popular, but the company's strong brand recognition and customer loyalty mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

OCI N.V. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's strong brand and high-quality services make it difficult for customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

OCI N.V. relies on a few key suppliers for its infrastructure and technology, which gives them some bargaining power. However, the company's large scale and strong relationships with suppliers mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The cloud computing market has high barriers to entry, including significant capital expenditures and the need for specialized expertise. This makes it difficult for new entrants to compete with OCI N.V.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The cloud computing market is highly competitive, with several large players vying for market share. OCI N.V. faces intense competition from companies like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 71.28%
Debt Cost 4.42%
Equity Weight 28.72%
Equity Cost 8.24%
WACC 5.52%
Leverage 248.21%

11. Quality Control: OCI N.V. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
OCI

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Covestro

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 1.3

Quality: 1.7

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Azelis

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 8.9

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Croda

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
De Nora

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
LANXESS

A-Score: 3.1/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 1.4

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.41$

Current Price

3.41$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows