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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Yara International ASA provides environmental and industrial solutions in Norway, European Union, Europe, Africa, Asia, North and Latin America, Australia, and New Zealand.The company offers nitrogen-based fertilizers, including urea, urea ammonium nitrate, calcium ammonium nitrate, ammonium nitrate, and ammonium sulfate; compound fertilizers that contain plant nutrients, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium; and blended products, as well as foliar and fertigation solutions through micronutrients.It also offers farmer centric solutions; solutions for farming, such as crop monitoring, variable rate fertilization, N-Tester BT, and Driving Mode, a mobile app; N-Sensor, a tractor-mounted tool that allows growers to measure a crop's nitrogen requirement; CheckIT, a smartphone app using a library of crop photographs to give a simple and fast identification of nutrient deficiencies; TankmixIT, an app used to check for the physical compatibility when tank mixing; and Tankmix.com, an online service providing advice on the physical mixing characteristics of Yara's foliar products with agrochemicals.


The company sells its products under YaraBela, YaraLiva, YaraMila, YaraRega, YaraTera, YaraVera, and YaraVita brands name.Yara International ASA was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on YAR

Yara International's recent performance has been positively driven by several factors. The company's advanced negotiations with Air Products to partner on low-emission ammonia projects, announced on December 8, 2025, are a significant development. This partnership aims to combine Air Products' industrial gas capabilities and low-emission hydrogen with Yara's ammonia production and distribution network. Additionally, the company's revenue is expected to decline by only 0.47% in the latest estimates, a slight improvement from previous forecasts. Yara's position in the fertilizer market, with a 22.6% year-to-date share price return, also supports its growth prospects.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Yara's Q4 Results: Strong Europe Performance Offsets Weak Americas Demand

Yara's fourth-quarter financial performance was marked by a slight miss on EPS, with actual EPS coming in at 11.8 versus estimates of 12.77. Revenue growth was muted, and the company's valuation metrics indicate a stable financial position, with a P/E Ratio of 16.51 and an EV/EBITDA of 6.49. The company's ROE stands at 9.55%, indicating a decent return on equity.

Publication Date: Feb -15

📋 Highlights
  • Europe Q4 delivery growth: 7% more deliveries by year-end, driven by CBAM anticipation and price hikes.
  • Urea demand outlook: 5 million tonne urea demand decrease projected in 2026 due to application efficiency shifts.
  • Q1 import reliance: 2.2 million tonnes of urea expected to be imported into the EU in Q1 2025 to meet residual demand.
  • CapEx increase: 2026 maintenance CapEx rises by $200 million vs. 2025, driven by expanded turnaround scope.
  • CBAM credit coverage: 6 million ETS credits secured, sufficient to offset emissions until 2029.

Segmental Performance

The company's European segment demonstrated strong performance, driven by buying ahead of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and a price increase across products. In contrast, the Americas segment saw flat demand, attributed to typical seasonal variation rather than structural changes. Management noted that 7% more deliveries were made by the end of December compared to the previous year, but almost half of the seasonal demand remains to be bought.

Outlook and CBAM Impact

The Q1 outlook is cautious due to slow market activity after Christmas and uncertainties around CBAM. However, imports are expected to be crucial in meeting the remaining demand. Yara's management is in close contact with policymakers, and the company's CEO has emphasized that there is no unforeseen impact on the single market. The European Parliament must pass a proposal to suspend or modify CBAM, which is not a guaranteed outcome.

Growth Projects and Capital Allocation

The Air Products project is progressing, with cost estimates still being finalized. Yara and Air Products are working diligently to get these estimates in place, and the project's budget is NOK 8 billion to NOK 9 billion. The company's capital allocation framework prioritizes maintenance and growth CapEx, with a strict capital discipline and a dividend policy of 50% cash dividend of net income.

Valuation and Estimates

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at -1.5%. Given the current valuation metrics, it appears that the market has priced in a stable financial performance. The company's P/S Ratio stands at 0.81, indicating a relatively reasonable valuation. The Dividend Yield is 1.1%, which may not be particularly attractive to income investors. Overall, Yara's financial performance is stable, with some variations driven by external factors such as CBAM and global demand trends.

3. NewsRoom

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Competitor Analysis of Fertilizer Market 2025: Recent Developments, Company Strategies, Sustainability Benchmarking, Product Launches, Key Persons, and Revenue Forecasts to 2033

Feb -18

Source:

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Air Products Reports Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Results

Jan -30

Source:

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3 Top Fertilizer Stocks That Your Portfolio Must Have for 2026

Dec -18

Source: zacks.com

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APD- An Industrial Gas Giant Offering Compelling Value

Dec -16

Source:

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How New Assumptions Are Rewriting the Narrative for Yara International Stock

Dec -10

Source:

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Air Products & Yara Advance Talks on Low-Emission Ammonia Projects

Dec -09

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Top Midday Decliners

Dec -08

Source:

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This Chemicals Stock Is Worst Performer in the S&P 500 Today. Here’s Why.

Dec -08

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.09%)

6. Segments

Americas

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Yara International ASA's 4.83% growth in Americas is driven by increasing demand for crop nutrients, favorable weather conditions, and government initiatives promoting sustainable agriculture practices. Additionally, the company's strategic partnerships and investments in digital farming solutions have enhanced its market presence and competitiveness in the region.

Europe

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Yara International ASA's 4.65% growth in Europe is driven by increasing demand for crop nutrition and environmental solutions, supported by the region's focus on sustainable agriculture and climate action. Strong sales in key markets like Germany, France, and the UK, as well as strategic partnerships and investments in digital farming, contribute to the company's growth momentum.

Africa & Asia

Expected Growth: 4.65%

In Africa and Asia, Yara International ASA's 4.65% growth is driven by increasing fertilizer demand from smallholder farmers, government subsidies for agricultural development, and investments in infrastructure and logistics. Additionally, Asia's growing middle class and Africa's population growth are driving up food demand, further boosting fertilizer sales.

Industrial Solutions

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Yara International ASA's Industrial Solutions segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for clean air and water solutions, growth in the oil and gas industry, and rising adoption of digital technologies. Additionally, the segment benefits from Yara's strong market position, strategic partnerships, and investments in research and development.

Clean Ammonia

Expected Growth: 11.47%

Yara International ASA's Clean Ammonia growth is driven by increasing demand for carbon-free energy, government incentives for green ammonia production, and strategic partnerships to develop large-scale projects. Additionally, the company's expertise in ammonia production and its existing infrastructure provide a competitive advantage, enabling it to capitalize on the growing market for clean energy solutions.

Other and Eliminations

Expected Growth: 4.85%

Yara International ASA's Other and Eliminations segment growth of 4.85% is driven by increased sales of industrial gases, higher prices for environmental products, and a favorable currency impact. Additionally, the segment benefited from the consolidation of acquired businesses, leading to higher revenue and profitability.

Global Plants & Operational Excellence

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Yara International ASA's Global Plants & Operational Excellence segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increased fertilizer demand, improved operational efficiency, and strategic investments in digitalization and sustainability initiatives, enabling the company to optimize production costs and enhance its competitive position in the market.

7. Detailed Products

Fertilizers

Yara International ASA produces a wide range of fertilizers, including nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and micronutrient-based products, catering to various crop and soil types.

Crop Nutrition

Yara's crop nutrition products provide essential nutrients to crops, promoting healthy growth and development, and are available in various formulations and application methods.

Industrial Chemicals

Yara produces industrial chemicals, including nitric acid, ammonia, and urea, used in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, dyes, and explosives.

Environmental Solutions

Yara's environmental solutions focus on reducing emissions, improving air and water quality, and providing sustainable solutions for industrial and agricultural applications.

Digital Farming

Yara's digital farming solutions provide farmers with data-driven insights, precision farming tools, and decision support systems to optimize crop management and reduce waste.

8. Yara International ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Yara International ASA operates in the fertilizer industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the company faces competition from organic fertilizers and other sustainable alternatives, which could potentially substitute traditional fertilizers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Yara International ASA's customers are primarily farmers and agricultural companies. While they have some bargaining power, the company's strong brand and wide distribution network reduce their negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Yara International ASA relies on suppliers for raw materials such as natural gas, ammonia, and other chemicals. While suppliers have some bargaining power, the company's large scale and diversified supply chain mitigate this risk.

Threat Of New Entrants

The fertilizer industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and allows Yara International ASA to maintain its market position.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The fertilizer industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Yara International ASA faces intense rivalry from companies such as Nutrien, Mosaic, and CF Industries, which could impact its market share and pricing power.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 35.90%
Debt Cost 5.74%
Equity Weight 64.10%
Equity Cost 5.74%
WACC 5.74%
Leverage 56.01%

11. Quality Control: Yara International ASA passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Grupa Kety

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Yara

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Navigator

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Buzzi Unicem

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ICL

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 3.6

Quality: 4.5

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
K+S

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 9.6

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

454.3$

Current Price

454.3$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows