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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Grieg Seafood ASA, through its subsidiaries, operates as a fish farming company.It engages in the production and sale of Atlantic salmon.The company supplies its fish products to customers in the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Asia, and other markets.


Grieg Seafood ASA was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Bergen, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on GSF

Grieg Seafood ASA's recent performance was marred by the departure of CEO Andreas Kvame, who stepped down after a decade in the role. The interim assumption of the position by Nina Willumsen Grieg may lead to a temporary disruption in the company's strategic direction. Furthermore, the absence of a permanent CEO may create uncertainty among investors and stakeholders.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Grieg Seafood's Q4 Results: A Strong Quarter with Improved Financials

Grieg Seafood reported a solid Q4 with sales revenue increasing 10% year-over-year, driven by higher price achievements, resulting in an operational EBIT of NOK 152.8 million. The earnings per share (EPS) came out at 4.24, significantly beating estimates of 0.03936. The company's farming EBIT was NOK 20.7 per kilo, and the harvest volume was almost 30.5 tonnes for Rogaland. The revenue growth was accompanied by a gain of approximately NOK 900 million recognized on the sale of Grieg Seafood Canada operations and Finmark operations.

Publication Date: Mar -05

📋 Highlights
  • Strong Q4 Farming EBIT:: Achieved NOK 20.7 per kilo with Rogaland harvest volume of 30.5 tonnes.
  • Debt Restructuring & Shareholder Payout:: Repaid debt, secured new syndicate with Nordea/SEB, and proposed NOK 4 billion distribution to shareholders.
  • Revenue Growth & Cost Pressures:: Sales rose 10% YoY to NOK 152.8M operational EBIT, but higher capitalized costs offset gains.
  • Asset Sale Gains:: Recognized NOK 900 million profit from Canada and Finmark operations divestments.
  • Net Cash Flow & Debt Position:: NOK 173 million operational cash flow, NOK 9.1 billion net proceeds from transactions, and first negative net interest-bearing debt.

Financial Performance Highlights

The company's net cash flow from operations was NOK 173 million, positively impacted by operational EBITDA. However, it was negatively impacted by changes in working capital. The net cash flow from investment activities was significantly impacted by the transaction, with net proceeds of around NOK 9.1 billion. As a result, the company's net interest-bearing debt position turned negative for the first time, indicating a strong financial position. As Magnus Johannesen, CFO, noted, "the company's net cash flow from investment activities was significantly impacted by the transaction."

Valuation Metrics

Analyzing Grieg Seafood's valuation metrics, we see a 'P/E Ratio' of -17.06, 'P/B Ratio' of 1.88, and 'P/S Ratio' of 1.67. The 'EV/EBITDA' ratio stands at 35.64, indicating a relatively high valuation. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio is -12.64, reflecting the company's negative net debt position. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.7%, which may impact the company's valuation multiples.

Strategic Outlook

Nina Grieg highlighted the company's key strategic building blocks for 2026, focusing on strengthening the company, driving profitability, and future-proofing operations. The goal is to fine-tune and stabilize Rogaland's performance, prioritize key initiatives for growth, and prepare for opportunities with new technology and regulatory changes. The company is on track to achieve its long-term target of NOK 60 per kilo in Rogaland.

Operational Updates

The company is expected to empty out sites with higher capitalized costs in Q1, which should positively impact future costs. Additionally, the increased smolt size will lead to higher biomass costs, which will be reflected in their numbers. The company's harvest guidance for '26 is not expected to be significantly impacted by the increased smolt weight in '25, but there may be some growth in '27.

3. NewsRoom

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.05%)

6. Segments

Fresh Whole Fish

Expected Growth: 10%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 10% growth in Fresh Whole Fish is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, rising consumer preference for healthy protein sources, and expansion into new markets. Additionally, the company's focus on aquaculture and vertical integration enables cost savings and improved quality control, further supporting growth.

Fresh Processed Fish

Expected Growth: 12%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 12% growth in Fresh Processed Fish is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on innovative products, such as value-added fillets and ready-to-eat meals, has contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the company's commitment to reducing environmental impact and improving operational efficiency has also supported its growth momentum.

Frozen Processed Fish

Expected Growth: 9%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 9% growth in Frozen Processed Fish is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, rising popularity of healthy protein sources, and expanding distribution channels in Asia and Europe. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, efficient supply chain management, and strategic partnerships contribute to its growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 8%

Grieg Seafood ASA's 8% growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable seafood, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on cost reduction, improved operational efficiency, and investment in technology have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the rising trend of health-conscious consumers and growing popularity of seafood in Asia have also boosted the company's revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Atlantic Salmon

Fresh and frozen Atlantic salmon, farmed in Norway and Scotland, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and processors globally.

Organic Salmon

Certified organic salmon, farmed in Norway, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and processors globally.

Smoked Salmon

Smoked Atlantic salmon, processed in Norway, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and foodservice providers globally.

Value-Added Products

Prepared and processed seafood products, including marinated, seasoned, and breaded salmon, sold to wholesalers, retailers, and foodservice providers globally.

Fishmeal and Fish Oil

Fishmeal and fish oil products, used as ingredients in animal feed, aquaculture, and industrial applications.

8. Grieg Seafood ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Grieg Seafood ASA is moderate due to the availability of alternative protein sources such as poultry, pork, and beef.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the fragmented nature of the seafood market, making it difficult for individual customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate due to the concentration of suppliers in the seafood industry, giving them some negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the seafood industry, including regulatory hurdles and significant capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the competitive nature of the seafood industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 44.52%
Debt Cost 7.22%
Equity Weight 55.48%
Equity Cost 7.22%
WACC 7.22%
Leverage 80.24%

11. Quality Control: Grieg Seafood ASA passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

69.75$

Current Price

69.75$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows