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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA provides general insurance and pension products in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.The company operates through six segments: General Insurance Private, General Insurance Commercial, General Insurance Denmark, General Insurance Sweden, General Insurance Baltics, and Pension.It offers motor, home, accident and health, travel, leisure craft, boat, valuables, liability, commercial, marine/transport, agriculture, natural perils, life, and pet insurance products.


The company also provides defined contribution occupational pension schemes for businesses, which include disability pension, spouse/cohabitant pension, and child's pension products.It distributes its products through various distribution channels comprising office channel, call center, Internet, partners, and brokers to private and commercial customers.The company was founded in 1816 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on GJF

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's recent performance was driven by a favorable market environment, with the pan-European STOXX Europe 600 Index experiencing a positive upswing. The company's undervaluation, estimated to be up to 48.6% below its intrinsic value, presents a significant discount opportunity for investors. Additionally, the company's recent earnings release, if any, may have contributed to its positive performance, although specific details are not available. Furthermore, the company's potential for growth and resilience in the face of economic uncertainties may have attracted investor interest.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Gjensidige's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Resilient Performance Amidst Climate Volatility

Gjensidige reported a profit before tax of NOK 2,067 million, with a nonrecurring expense of NOK 429 million related to the termination of the new core IT system in the pension business. The company's general insurance service result was NOK 2,271 million, significantly up year-on-year, driven by a 11.3% increase in insurance revenue. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at NOK 3.04, missing estimates of NOK 3.76. Revenue growth was robust, with insurance revenue adjusted for the positive effect of the change in recognition of home seller insurance.

Publication Date: Oct -27

📋 Highlights
  • Profit Before Tax:: NOK 2,067 million despite NOK 429 million nonrecurring IT-related pension business expense.
  • Insurance Service Result:: NOK 2,271 million (11.3% higher YoY) driven by top-line growth and 3.2ppt loss ratio improvement.
  • Combined Ratio:: 79.7% (down from prior periods) due to 1.4ppt improvement in underlying frequency loss ratio and 10.8% cost ratio.
  • Private Insurance Pricing:: 12.5–13% average price hikes in Norway, exceeding inflation (3–6%) and claims frequency trends.
  • Pension Business ROE:: 20.7% YTD (exceeding 15% target) despite NOK 414 million pretax loss from IT system termination.

Underwriting Profitability and Claims Experience

The combined ratio declined to 79.7%, reflecting improvements in both loss and cost ratios. The loss ratio improved by 3.2 percentage points compared to the third quarter last year, driven by a 1.4 percentage point improvement in the underlying frequency loss ratio. However, claims frequency increased by 5%, and repair costs rose by 4% in private property insurance in Norway. The company continues to implement price increases, with an average rate of 12.5%, to mitigate the impact of higher claims costs.

Segmental Performance and Pricing Power

The private segment delivered a higher result, driven by both Norway and Denmark, while the commercial segment showed lower results due to revenue growth and improved profitability in Norway. Geir Holmgren, CEO, mentioned that the company has implemented high price increases, significantly above inflation, with 12.5% to 13% price increases on average for property and motor insurance in Norway. The company sees good pricing power and high retention rates in Norway, prioritizing profitability before growth.

Valuation and Outlook

With a Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of 5.48 and a Dividend Yield of 3.75%, Gjensidige's valuation appears reasonable. The company's solvency ratio was 191% this quarter, up from 182% in the second quarter, indicating a strong capital position. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 7.8%. Given the company's resilient performance amidst climate volatility and its focus on underwriting profitability, the stock is likely to remain attractive to investors seeking exposure to the insurance sector.

3. NewsRoom

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.60%)

6. Segments

General Insurance Commercial

Expected Growth: 7.0%

The commercial insurance market is anticipated to grow due to an increase in businesses seeking insurance products, driven by economic stability and regulatory requirements in Norway and Denmark, justifying a slightly higher growth rate than the global hypothesis.

General Insurance Private

Expected Growth: 6.8%

The private insurance market is expected to grow steadily, driven by increasing awareness of insurance products among individuals and a stable economic environment in Norway and Denmark, supporting a growth rate slightly above the average.

General Insurance Sweden

Expected Growth: 7.2%

The Swedish insurance market is anticipated to experience higher growth due to the segment's diversified portfolio, catering to both individuals and businesses, and the overall economic stability in Sweden, justifying a growth rate higher than the global average.

Other Including Eliminations

Expected Growth: 6.0%

This segment's growth is less directly tied to the insurance market's performance and more to internal transactions and other activities, justifying a more conservative growth estimate, slightly below the global hypothesis.

Pension

Expected Growth: 7.5%

The pension market is expected to experience significant growth driven by an aging population and the need for supplementary pension savings in Norway, justifying a higher growth rate than the global hypothesis.

7. Detailed Products

Motor Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA offers motor insurance that covers damages to vehicles, as well as liability for damages to others.

Home Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's home insurance covers damages to homes and personal belongings, as well as liability for damages to others.

Travel Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's travel insurance covers unexpected events that may occur during travel, such as trip cancellations, medical emergencies, and luggage loss.

Life Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's life insurance provides financial protection for loved ones in the event of death or serious illness.

Pension and Savings

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's pension and savings products help individuals plan for retirement and achieve long-term financial goals.

Business Insurance

Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's business insurance covers risks associated with running a business, such as liability, property damage, and business interruption.

8. Gjensidige Forsikring ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Gjensidige Forsikring ASA is moderate due to the presence of alternative insurance providers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low as Gjensidige Forsikring ASA has a strong brand presence and a large customer base, making it difficult for individual customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is moderate as Gjensidige Forsikring ASA relies on a network of suppliers for its operations, but has some flexibility to negotiate prices.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the insurance industry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high in the Norwegian insurance market, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 15.18%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 84.82%
Equity Cost 4.97%
WACC 4.81%
Leverage 17.89%

11. Quality Control: Gjensidige Forsikring ASA passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Ageas

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Aegon

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Gjensidige Forsikring

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tryg

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Baloise Holding

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Direct Line Insurance

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

282.8$

Current Price

282.8$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows