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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Tryg A/S, together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services for private and corporate customers, and small and medium sized businesses in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden.It operates through Private, Commercial, Corporate, and Sweden segments.The company provides car, contents, house, accident, travel, motorcycles, pet, health, property, liability, transportation, group life, and boat insurance products, as well as fire and content, and worker compensation insurance products.


It sells its products primarily through call centers, Internet, tied agents, franchisees, interest organizations, car dealers, real estate agents, insurance brokers, and Nordea branches under the Tryg Forsikring, Alka, Enter Forsikring, Tryg, Moderna, Tryg Garanti, Moderna Djurförsäkringar, Atlantica Båtförsäkring, Affinity, and Bilsport & MC specialförsäkring brands.The company was founded in 1731 and is headquartered in Ballerup, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on TRYG

Tryg A/S's recent performance was driven by a 3.7% revenue increase in Q1 2025, fueled by strategic price adjustments and solid performance in key segments. The company's robust Q1 earnings were also supported by a benign level of weather claims and a continued underlying profitability improvement. Additionally, Tryg's share buyback program, which has reduced the company's share capital by DKK 25,088,935, is a positive development for shareholders.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Tryg's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Tryg reported a 3.4% premium growth in Q3 2025, or 4% when adjusting for a one-off in the previous year's quarter, with an insurance service result of DKK 2.181 billion, a 7% growth when normalizing large and weather events. The combined ratio was 78.6%, a strong performance in a seasonally favorable quarter. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at DKK 2.43, beating estimates of DKK 2.23. The company's financial performance was driven by a solid investment result, with a total invested asset value of DKK 59 billion.

Publication Date: Oct -27

📋 Highlights
  • Premium Growth:: Q3 2025 premium growth at 3.4% (4% adjusted for prior year one-off) reflects stable market performance.
  • Insurance Service Result:: DKK 2.181 billion, up 7% with normalized claims, highlights improved underwriting efficiency.
  • Combined Ratio:: 78.6% (seasonally favorable quarter) with 30 bps improvement in Private segment claims ratio.
  • Solvency Strength:: 204% solvency ratio and 22% operating capital generation underscore robust financial resilience.
  • Shareholder Returns:: Targeting DKK 17–18 billion shareholder returns by 2027, including DKK 2 billion share buyback and DKK 15–16 billion dividends.

Segmental Performance

The company's performance varied across segments, with Sweden achieving a strong combined ratio driven by a solid performance across all product areas. The Danish retention rate dropped by 80 basis points in both Private and Commercial lines due to a technical adjustment, but the company expects retention rates to stabilize and eventually improve. The group combined ratio for Q3 was 81.9%, 83.1%, and 70.7% for the three markets.

Guidance and Outlook

Tryg guides for a stable to slightly improving underlying claims ratio going forward, driven by improvement in the Private segment, particularly in Norway. The company expects an uptick in the improvement in the underlying claims ratio in Q4. Johan Brammer noted that historically, it takes a few years for retention rates to bounce back after a decline, but the current situation is hard to predict due to factors like inflation.

Valuation

With a Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B) of 2.56 and a Dividend Yield of 5.01%, Tryg's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong financial performance and growth prospects. The company's ROE of 12.75% is also respectable, indicating a decent return on equity. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.2%, which is in line with the company's growth strategy.

Strategy and Initiatives

Tryg is on track to achieve its 2027 strategy, focusing on scale and simplicity, technical excellence, and customer and commercial excellence. The recent expansion of the TCS agreement aims to simplify the IT setup, and Trygg-Hansa has entered into new partnership agreements to strengthen its position in the Swedish Motor segment. The company targets a combined ratio of around 81%, driving an insurance service result growth of DKK 1 billion from 2024 to 2027.

3. NewsRoom

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Tryg nominates Steffen Kragh as new Chair of the Supervisory Board

Dec -04

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Tryg A/S – Interim report Q3 2025 and Q1-Q3 2025

Oct -10

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Tryg (CPSE:TRYG) Valuation: Is There Still Upside for Patient Investors?

Oct -04

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Tryg A/S - Q3 2025 pre-silent newsletter

Sep -25

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Tryg AS (WBO:TRYG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Financial Performance and Strategic ...

Jul -12

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Tryg A/S – Financial Calendar for 2026

Jul -11

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Tryg A/S – interim report Q2 and H1 2025

Jul -11

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Tryg A/S – Q2 2025 pre-silent newsletter

Jun -26

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.85%)

6. Segments

Private

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Private segment growth of 1.8% in Tryg A/S is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, particularly in the motor and homeowners' insurance lines. This growth is also fueled by the company's strong distribution network, effective risk management, and competitive pricing strategies.

Commercial

Expected Growth: 1.9%

Tryg A/S's 1.9% commercial growth is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have improved operational efficiency, contributing to the growth. Furthermore, a favorable regulatory environment and a strong brand reputation have also supported the company's commercial growth.

Corporate Insurances

Expected Growth: 2.1%

Tryg A/S's 2.1% growth in Corporate Insurances is driven by increasing demand for risk management solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and customer-centric approach have improved sales and retention rates, contributing to the growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.7%

Tryg A/S's 1.7% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing demand for non-life insurance products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digitalization and cost savings initiatives have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the 'Other' segment benefits from Tryg's diversified business model, which reduces dependence on a single revenue stream.

7. Detailed Products

Home Insurance

Comprehensive insurance coverage for homes and contents, including protection against fire, theft, and natural disasters.

Motor Insurance

Insurance coverage for cars, motorcycles, and other vehicles, including liability, collision, and comprehensive coverage.

Travel Insurance

Insurance coverage for travelers, including trip cancellations, medical emergencies, and luggage loss or damage.

Life Insurance

Insurance coverage that provides a financial safety net for loved ones in the event of death or terminal illness.

Business Insurance

Insurance coverage for businesses, including liability, property, and employee insurance.

Cyber Insurance

Insurance coverage that protects businesses from cyber-attacks, data breaches, and other cyber-related risks.

8. Tryg A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Tryg A/S is medium due to the presence of alternative insurance providers in the market.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Tryg A/S is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Tryg A/S is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Tryg A/S is high due to the relatively low barriers to entry in the insurance industry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Tryg A/S is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the market.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 23.81%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 76.19%
Equity Cost 5.31%
WACC 4.98%
Leverage 31.25%

11. Quality Control: Tryg A/S passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Aegon

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 7.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Gjensidige Forsikring

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Alm. Brand

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.8

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Tryg

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Baloise Holding

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 1.6

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Direct Line Insurance

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

158.3$

Current Price

158.3$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows