Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. (CPS.WA) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. provides digital satellite platform and terrestrial television (TV), and telecommunication services in Poland.The company offers satellite and Internet pay television, mobile and fixed-line telephony, mobile and fixed-line broadband Internet access, wholesale, and TV broadcasting and production services, as well as online content, news, and video sharing services.It offers approximately 150 TV channels, including terrestrial, general entertainment, sports and e-sports, music, lifestyle, news/information, children's, education, and movie channels; and over the top services, such as Cyfrowy Polsat GO, VOD/PPV, online video and music, catch-up TV, and multiroom HD services.

In addition, the company provides database of legal video content and live broadcasts; online TV channels; live coverages of sports events; and feature films, and TV series and programs.Further, it offers telecommunications, software, retail, radio and TV, media, call center and premium rate, technical, advertising, Web portals, monetary intermediation, sponsorship, broadcasting and signal transmission, premises and facilities leasing, and other financial services; produces broadcasting, television, and electronic equipment; produces, leases, and sells set-top boxes; and sells licenses, sublicenses, and property rights, as well as STB hard disk drives, antennas, Internet modems, tablets, laptops, routers, TV sets, accessories, and other devices.The company was formerly known as Polsat Cyfrowy S.A. and changed its name to Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. in 2004.

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.

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1.b. Last Insights on CPS

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A.'s recent performance has been impacted by a cautious stance from analysts, citing challenging market conditions. The consensus analyst price target was revised downward from PLN 16.07 to PLN 15.10, reflecting a more cautious outlook. Ongoing concerns about market conditions have tempered optimism spurred by operational improvements. With no recent earnings release providing a positive catalyst, the company's short-term prospects are clouded by analyst caution, as noted by a recent report (source not specified).

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	11.24
Change Percentage	2.23%
Open	11
Previous Close	11
Market Cap ( Millions)	6193
Volume	964932
Year High	19.0
Year Low	10.92
M A 50	13.23
M A 200	15.19

FCF Yield	16.20%
Dividend Yield	0.00%
ROE	3.59%
Debt / Equity	88.84%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	306.78%
Price To Book	0.38
Price Earnings Ratio	10.69
Price To FCF	6.17
Price To sales	0.43
EV / EBITDA	4.64

2. Disappointing EPS, But Operational Highlights Show Promise

The company's third-quarter financial performance was marked by a revenue decline of 4.1% to PLN 3.4 billion, primarily due to lower results in the Green Energy segment. Adjusted EBITDA reached PLN 766 million, impacted by higher content costs. The net profit was PLN 57 million, with earnings per share (EPS) coming in at 0.2896, below analyst estimates of 0.4196. As noted by Katarzyna Ostap-Tomann, "Adjusted free cash flow after interest and development CapEx in the Green Energy segment was PLN 860 million over the last 12 months," indicating a stable cash flow generation.

Publication Date: Nov -29

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Multiplay Growth::
                                                11% customer migration to new multiplay offer since June, with 3+ service bundles nearly tripling in sales and B2C ARPU exceeding PLN 80 for first time.
Media Segment Performance::
                                                22.4% audience share in 9M 2025, 1.7% ad revenue growth, but higher content costs from sports rights (e.g., WTA 2027–2031 rights) impacted Q3 results.
Green Energy Decline::
                                                Q3 revenue dropped 4.1% due to biomass maintenance and lower production, but Drzezewo wind farm completion ended capital-intensive phase, doubling wind capacity.
Financial Metrics::
                                                Adjusted EBITDA at PLN 766M (down vs. prior), net profit PLN 57M, net debt/EBITDA 3.54x (vs. 2024), and 12M free cash flow of PLN 860M post-green energy CapEx.

                                

Segment Performance

The telco segment performed well, with the new multiplay offer driving growth. Average revenue per user (ARPU) grew 4% year-on-year, and bundles with 3 or more services nearly tripled in sales. The Media segment achieved strong viewership results, with a 22.4% audience share in 9 months of 2025, and ad revenue grew by 1.7%. However, higher content costs due to new sports rights affected the segment's profitability.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 10.85 and an EV/EBITDA of 4.66, the stock appears to be reasonably valued. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 3.07, indicating a manageable debt burden. Analysts estimate revenue growth at 2.1% for next year. The company's guidance for adjusted EBITDA to be slightly lower than 2024 for the whole 2025 suggests a cautious outlook. However, the potential for growth in the B2C and B2B segments with the new multiplay offer and declining development CapEx in the Green Energy segment could provide a positive impetus.

Key Drivers for 2026

The company expects technical costs to rise in 2026 due to network rollout expenses, which could impact profitability. However, workforce costs are expected to decrease due to lower inflation and wage pressures. The EBITDA for the Green Energy segment in 2026 is expected to be around PLN 400 million if energy prices remain at current low levels. The free cash flow in 2026 will depend on working capital and the cost of capital, making it a key metric to watch.

3. NewsRoom

How the Narrative Around Cyfrowy Polsat Is Shifting Amid Analyst Upgrades and Market Risks

Nov -28

Source:

How Analyst Views on Cyfrowy Polsat Are Shifting Amid Market Caution and New Opportunities

Oct -23

Source:

Cyfrowy Polsat SA (FRA:CP9) Half Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Revenue Growth and Green ...

Aug -22

Source:

Polsat Plus Group receives investment loan for Poland wind farm

Aug -13

Source:

Cyfrowy Polsat SA (FRA:CP9) Full Year 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...

Apr -11

Source:

Cyfrowy Polsat SA (FRA:CP9) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong EBITDA Growth and Green ...

Nov -28

Source:

Cyfrowy Polsat SA (WAR:CPS) (Q2 2024) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...

Oct -09

Source:

Polish Billionaire’s Family Row Irks Pension Fund as Stock Drops

Oct -07

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.83%)

6. Segments

Business-to-Consumer and Business-to-Business Services

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Growing demand for telecommunications and media services, increasing adoption of digital technologies, and expansion into new markets drive Cyfrowy Polsat's growth. The company's diversified B2C and B2B services, including tailored solutions for corporate clients, position it for continued growth.

Media: Television and Online

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Growing demand for online streaming services, increasing adoption of digital media, and Cyfrowy Polsat's strong brand presence in Poland drive growth in the Television and Online segment.

Green Energy

Expected Growth: 10.2%

Growing demand for eco-friendly power generation, increasing adoption of renewable energy sources, and government incentives for sustainable energy solutions drive the growth of Green Energy from Cyfrowy Polsat S.A.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Growing demand for housing and commercial spaces in Poland, driven by urbanization, economic growth, and government incentives, fuels the real estate market growth.

7. Detailed Products

Telecommunications Services

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. offers a range of telecommunications services, including mobile voice and data services, fixed-line telephony, and internet access.

TV Services

The company provides a range of TV services, including satellite TV, IPTV, and online TV, offering a variety of channels and on-demand content.

Internet Services

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. offers high-speed internet services, including fiber-optic and mobile internet, for individuals and businesses.

Smart Home Services

The company offers smart home services, including security systems, energy management, and home automation solutions.

IT and Cloud Services

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. provides IT and cloud services, including data center services, cloud computing, and cybersecurity solutions.

8. Cyfrowy Polsat S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative services such as streaming platforms and traditional TV channels.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the company's strong brand presence and limited switching costs.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers and the company's moderate dependence on them.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high due to the low barriers to entry and the attractiveness of the Polish telecommunications market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of multiple players in the market and the high level of competition.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	50.21%
Debt Cost	7.10%
Equity Weight	49.79%
Equity Cost	7.10%
WACC	7.10%
Leverage	100.86%

11. Quality Control: Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. passed 2 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Borussia Dortmund

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 5.6

Yield: 1.2

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Cyfrowy Polsat

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Prisa

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Deezer

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Gaumont

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Time Out

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 1.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-6.49%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

7.10%

Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. - PLCFRPT00013

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on CPS

1.c. Company Highlights

Weak Momentum

Average Quality

Fairly Valued

Lower Quality

Medium Volatility

Stable Momentum

Revenues Beats

Strong Momentum

Cheaper

2. Disappointing EPS, But Operational Highlights Show Promise

Segment Performance

Valuation and Outlook

Key Drivers for 2026

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.83%)

6. Segments

Business-to-Consumer and Business-to-Business Services

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Media: Television and Online

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Green Energy

Expected Growth: 10.2%

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 5.5%

7. Detailed Products

Telecommunications Services

TV Services

Internet Services

Smart Home Services

IT and Cloud Services

8. Cyfrowy Polsat S.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

11.24$

Current Price

11.24$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA